NFL · Props

Trey McBride

TE · Arizona Cardinals

Rec/g: 8.5
Rec yds/g: 68.0
Targets/g: 11.5
2026 games: 2

Props this week

Rec yds 61.5

Over -115 · Under -115 · books price the over at 50%

ARI vs SEA · Sun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET · underdog by 4 · total 41 · indoors · 7 days rest · final: 41 (under)

SEA allows the 9th-most receiving yards to TEs (59 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

Score against

What if the line were61.5

21 of 35 over60%range 46–72%avg 90% of snapsbooks price 50% at 61.5 (-115 MGM)

Middle half of these games: 51.5–91 · median 70 · range 20–134

Projected range · contextmedian 63middle half 37–9580% range 20–125

How his rec yds tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share

McBride's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Target share	34.1%	33.7%	36.5%	27.4%
Targets a game	10.3	10.8	11.5	9.9
Snap share	87.7%	91.2%	84.0%	91.4%

Driver	ARI offense	SEA defense faces
Dropbacks per game	44.1 #1	39.9 #2
Pass rate over expected	+6.6 #1	+2.6 #6
Neutral-script pass rate	62.7% #1	54.1% #21
Dropback success rate	44.7% #18	40.6% #28

Last 17 games, ranked against the league (#1 = highest). "Defense faces" is how offenses have played against that defense. Rates over expected compare with how a typical team plays the same downs, distances and scores, shown against the league average. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Throw quality

Passes to him	McBride	League	ARI offense	SEA defense faces
Catchable-target rate	78.4%	68.1%	67.5% #17	64.8% #27
Drop rate	2.3%	5.5%	4.0% #29	6.9% #4
Contested-target rate	22.2%	13.0%	16.7% #2	12.6% #18
Pressure on his QB	—	29.7%	31.8% #8	32.0% #8

His last 17 games and the teams' last 17. "Catchable" is FTN's charting: a defended or inaccurate pass is not catchable, and throwaways and spikes are left out. Pressure and completion under pressure come from nflverse participation, published weeks after the games (so far through 2025 week 22). Dimmed numbers are over fewer than 30 plays. Descriptive, not a forecast. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse (CC BY-SA 4.0).

Market curve vs his games

● books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · ● his games over that number

Number	Best over	Books price	His games
main	-113 FD	50%	63% (22/35)
main	-115 MGM	50%	60% (21/35)
main	-111 DK	50%	54% (19/35)

* A one-sided price includes the book's margin, which is larger on far alternates, so the probability reads a little high. Numbers a book has not refreshed in a while, and old main lines it has moved off, are left out.

Each bar is measured against the line shown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 1 of his team's games in this span (Sep 29 vs WSH); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	3/5	60%	60.8	65
Last 10	7/10	70%	77.2	77.5
2026 season	1/2	50%	68.0	68
2025 season	10/17	59%	72.9	72
At home	9/17	53%	60.9	65
On the road	12/18	67%	82.5	79
Vs SEA	3/5	60%	84.6	70
As an underdog	16/26	62%	74.3	71.5
In domes	14/24	58%	68.4	66
Division games	8/13	62%	77.8	65
With Jacoby Brissett	10/14	71%	78.6	75
Vs soft defenses	5/9	56%	66.6	67

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Over	Under
MGM	61.5	-115	-115
DK	65.5	-111	-113
FD	60.5	-113	-113

Steady at 61.5 since Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET.

Receptions 6.5

Over -109 · Under -110 · books price the over at 50%

ARI vs SEA · Sun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET · underdog by 4 · total 41 · indoors · 7 days rest · final: 8 (over)

SEA allows the 10th-most receptions to TEs (5.7 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

Score against

What if the line were6.5

20 of 35 over57%range 43–70%avg 90% of snapsbooks price 50% at 6.5 (-109 DK)

Middle half of these games: 5–9 · median 7 · range 3–12

Projected range · contextmedian 6.5middle half 4.3–980% range 2.6–11.6

How his receptions tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share

McBride's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Target share	34.1%	33.7%	36.5%	27.4%
Targets a game	10.3	10.8	11.5	9.9
Snap share	87.7%	91.2%	84.0%	91.4%

Driver	ARI offense	SEA defense faces
Dropbacks per game	44.1 #1	39.9 #2
Pass rate over expected	+6.6 #1	+2.6 #6
Neutral-script pass rate	62.7% #1	54.1% #21
Dropback success rate	44.7% #18	40.6% #28

Throw quality

Passes to him	McBride	League	ARI offense	SEA defense faces
Catchable-target rate	78.4%	68.1%	67.5% #17	64.8% #27
Drop rate	2.3%	5.5%	4.0% #29	6.9% #4
Contested-target rate	22.2%	13.0%	16.7% #2	12.6% #18
Pressure on his QB	—	29.7%	31.8% #8	32.0% #8

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	4/5	80%	7.6	8
Last 10	8/10	80%	8.2	8.5
2026 season	2/2	100%	8.5	8.5
2025 season	10/17	59%	7.4	7
At home	8/17	47%	6.4	6
On the road	12/18	67%	8.1	8
Vs SEA	5/5	100%	8.6	8
As an underdog	16/26	62%	7.5	8
In domes	13/24	54%	7.1	7
Division games	9/13	69%	7.8	7
With Jacoby Brissett	11/14	79%	8.1	8.5
Vs soft defenses	4/7	57%	7.3	8

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Over	Under
MGM	6.5	-120	-110
DK	6.5	-109	-117
FD	6.5	—	-136

Steady at 6.5 since Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET.

Anytime TD

Yes +200 · books price yes at 35%

ARI vs SEA · Sun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET · underdog by 4 · total 41 · indoors · 7 days rest · final: 1 (yes)

Teammate

Score against

14 of 35 scored40%range 28–54%avg 90% of snapsbooks price 35%

Volume drivers and his share

McBride's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Touch share	19.7%	20.6%	20.2%	17.2%
Touches a game	10.3	10.8	11.5	9.9
Snap share	87.7%	91.2%	84.0%	91.4%

Each bar is measured against a touchdown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 1 of his team's games in this span (Sep 29 vs WSH); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

Split	Scored	Rate	TDs/game
Last 5	3/5	60%	0.60
Last 10	6/10	60%	0.60
2026 season	2/2	100%	1.00
2025 season	9/17	53%	0.53
At home	5/17	29%	0.29
On the road	9/18	50%	0.50
Vs SEA	2/5	40%	0.40
As an underdog	12/26	46%	0.46
In domes	9/24	38%	0.38
Division games	6/13	46%	0.46
With Jacoby Brissett	10/14	71%	0.71

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Yes
MGM	—	+180
DK	—	+185
FD	—	+200

We have not seen a line for this yet.

Routes

Routes and coverage

2024–25 seasons · 313 targets with a route label

Weighted by where Trey McBride's targets come from, SEA has allowed 0.32 yds/target less than the league average on those routes. They play man on 38% of dropbacks (league 40%).

A description of how SEA's defense has fared, not a projection. Each defense number is pulled toward the league average in proportion to how few targets it rests on.

Route	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt	SEA allow
Quick out	76	82%	6.2(5.5)	+0.21	5.1
Hitch / curl	55	84%	6.5(6.8)	+0.23	6.2
Screen	41	93%	6.5(5.8)	+0.19	6.1
Deep out	30	63%	10.4(8.0)	+0.53	7.1
Shallow cross	26	73%	7.2(6.5)	+0.55	6.0
In / dig	23	65%	9.2(9.6)	+0.54	8.4
Corner	20	45%	6.7(10.4)	+0.43	11.7
Slant	14	93%	10.1(7.2)	+1.04	7.2
Go	11	36%	9.5(9.9)	+0.32	9.1
Post	8	75%	12.4(12.3)	+1.20	12.0
Swing	5	80%	9.0(5.3)	+1.29	5.7
Wheel	3	67%	20.0(10.2)	+1.33	9.8
Texas / angle	1	0%	0.0(6.5)	−0.96	6.5

Against man and zone

Defense	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt
Zone	203	79%	8.3	+0.45
Man	109	70%	6.4	+0.31

Against each coverage

Defense	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt
Cover 3	85	75%	8.4	+0.41
Cover 1	79	75%	7.3	+0.48
Cover 2	70	79%	7.5	+0.37
Cover 4	24	88%	9.3	+0.71
Cover 0	16	50%	2.4	−0.26
Cover 6	16	81%	9.8	+0.45
2-man	14	64%	5.5	−0.02
Cover 9	3	67%	6.3	+0.77

Routes are the ones the player was targetedon: nflverse labels the targeted receiver's route on about nine in ten targets, and routes run without a throw are not public, so this shows where a player's looks come from, not everything he ran. Yards per target in brackets is the league figure for that route. Rows with few targets are dimmed; small samples swing.

Game log

Game	Result	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Rec TD	Snap %
2026 W2 vs SEASep 20	L 7–31	10	8	41	1	88%
2026 W1 @ LACSep 13	W 26–14	13	9	95	1	80%
2025 W18 @ LARJan 4	L 20–37	8	7	65	0	95%
2025 W17 @ CINDec 28	L 14–37	13	10	76	1	96%
2025 W16 vs ATLDec 21	L 19–26	8	4	27	0	96%
2025 W15 @ HOUDec 14	L 20–40	13	12	134	2	92%
2025 W14 vs LARDec 7	L 17–45	9	5	58	0	97%
2025 W13 @ TBNov 30	L 17–20	9	8	82	1	89%
2025 W12 vs JAXNov 23	L 24–27	10	9	79	0	88%
2025 W11 vs SFNov 16	L 22–41	11	10	115	1	89%
2025 W10 @ SEANov 9	L 22–44	13	9	127	1	84%
2025 W9 @ DALNov 3	W 27–17	9	5	55	1	88%
2025 W7 vs GBOct 19	L 23–27	13	10	74	2	87%
2025 W6 @ INDOct 12	L 27–31	11	8	72	1	90%
2025 W5 vs TENOct 5	L 21–22	7	5	41	0	90%
2025 W4 vs SEASep 25	L 20–23	11	7	52	0	96%
2025 W3 @ SFSep 21	L 15–16	8	5	43	1	88%
2025 W2 vs CARSep 14	W 27–22	7	6	78	0	91%
2025 W1 @ NOSep 7	W 20–13	9	6	61	0	97%

Prop lines come from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM through TheRundown and can lag what a book shows right now — check the book before you rely on a number. Splits count the games he played (snap counts show who was on the field) and describe the past; they are not a prediction. A game he played with no stat line counts as a zero; a game he sat out is left out, because books void the prop then. Stats and route labels from nflverse. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.