DeVonta Smith

Rec/g: 6.5
Rec yds/g: 85.0
Targets/g: 9.5
2026 games: 2

Before the lines post · next: at CHI

Rec yds No line yet

PHI at CHI · Mon, Sep 28, 8:15 PM ET · favored by 3.75 · total 44 · wind 8 mph · 8 days rest

CHI allows the 3rd-most receiving yards to WRs (169 a game over its last 17)

No book has posted this yet (they usually do a day or two before kickoff). The dashed line starts at his median over his last 10 games; drag it to any number to see how often he has cleared it. This page shows the books' price once they post.

Teammate

What if the line were51

21 of 37 over57%range 43–69%1 pushavg 87% of snaps

Middle half of these games: 37–84 · median 53 · range -2–183

Projected range · contextmedian 55middle half 32–8380% range 17.5–109

How his rec yds tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share

Smith's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Target share	33.3%	26.9%	33.9%	24.9%
Targets a game	10.0	7.8	9.5	6.9
Snap share	91.7%	76.7%	91.5%	84.8%

Driver	PHI offense	CHI defense faces
Dropbacks per game	34.7 #23	37.1 #11
Pass rate over expected	−0.7 #17	−0.0 #18
Neutral-script pass rate	55.1% #13	52.1% #26
Dropback success rate	44.1% #21	46.0% #15

Last 17 games, ranked against the league (#1 = highest). "Defense faces" is how offenses have played against that defense. Rates over expected compare with how a typical team plays the same downs, distances and scores, shown against the league average. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Throw quality

Passes to him	Smith	League	PHI offense	CHI defense faces
Catchable-target rate	74.3%	68.1%	67.2% #23	69.0% #17
Drop rate	4.9%	5.5%	5.0% #21	6.6% #5
Contested-target rate	13.8%	13.0%	13.1% #17	17.2% #3
Pressure on his QB	—	29.7%	28.1% #23	26.5% #27

His last 17 games and the teams' last 17. "Catchable" is FTN's charting: a defended or inaccurate pass is not catchable, and throwaways and spikes are left out. Pressure and completion under pressure come from nflverse participation, published weeks after the games (so far through 2025 week 22). Dimmed numbers are over fewer than 30 plays. Descriptive, not a forecast. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse (CC BY-SA 4.0).

Each bar is measured against the line shown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 4 of his team's games in this span (Jan 5 vs NYG, Dec 1 at BAL, Nov 24 at LAR, Sep 29 at TB); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	4/5	80%	63.4	53
Last 10	5/10	50%	58.3	51
2026 season	2/2	100%	85.0	85
2025 season	9/18	50%	59.9	51
At home	14/22	64%	61.4	57.5
On the road1 push	7/15	47%	61.3	51
Vs CHI	0/1	0%	48.0	48
As a favorite1 push	17/32	53%	60.8	52.5
Prime time	3/8	38%	46.0	43
With Jalen Hurts1 push	20/36	56%	61.6	54
Vs soft defenses	9/18	50%	57.6	51
Without Dallas Goedert (Questionable)1 push	6/9	67%	65.8	53
With Dallas Goedert	15/28	54%	60.0	54
Without Saquon Barkley (Questionable)	1/1	100%	52.0	52
With Saquon Barkley1 push	20/36	56%	61.6	54

Receptions No line yet

PHI at CHI · Mon, Sep 28, 8:15 PM ET · favored by 3.75 · total 44 · wind 8 mph · 8 days rest

CHI allows the 8th-most receptions to WRs (12 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

What if the line were4.5

16 of 37 over43%range 31–57%avg 87% of snaps

Middle half of these games: 3–6 · median 4 · range 1–11

Projected range · contextmedian 4.8middle half 3.2–6.780% range 1.9–8.6

How his receptions tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share

Smith's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Target share	33.3%	26.9%	33.9%	24.9%
Targets a game	10.0	7.8	9.5	6.9
Snap share	91.7%	76.7%	91.5%	84.8%

Driver	PHI offense	CHI defense faces
Dropbacks per game	34.7 #23	37.1 #11
Pass rate over expected	−0.7 #17	−0.0 #18
Neutral-script pass rate	55.1% #13	52.1% #26
Dropback success rate	44.1% #21	46.0% #15

Throw quality

Passes to him	Smith	League	PHI offense	CHI defense faces
Catchable-target rate	74.3%	68.1%	67.2% #23	69.0% #17
Drop rate	4.9%	5.5%	5.0% #21	6.6% #5
Contested-target rate	13.8%	13.0%	13.1% #17	17.2% #3
Pressure on his QB	—	29.7%	28.1% #23	26.5% #27

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	2/5	40%	5.2	3
Last 10	5/10	50%	4.9	4.5
2026 season	1/2	50%	6.5	6.5
2025 season	8/18	44%	4.7	4
At home	9/22	41%	5.0	4
On the road	7/15	47%	4.9	4
Vs CHI	1/1	100%	5.0	5
As a favorite	14/32	44%	5.0	4
Prime time	2/8	25%	4.3	4
With Jalen Hurts	16/36	44%	5.0	4
Vs soft defenses	6/18	33%	4.4	4
Without Dallas Goedert (Questionable)	4/9	44%	5.0	4
With Dallas Goedert	12/28	43%	4.9	4
Without Saquon Barkley (Questionable)	0/1	0%	3.0	3
With Saquon Barkley	16/36	44%	5.0	4

Anytime TD No line yet

PHI at CHI · Mon, Sep 28, 8:15 PM ET · favored by 3.75 · total 44 · wind 8 mph · 8 days rest

No book has posted this yet (they usually do a day or two before kickoff). Here is how often he has scored, in the situations this game sets up.

Teammate

13 of 37 scored35%range 24–49%avg 87% of snaps

Volume drivers and his share

Smith's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Touch share	16.4%	13.5%	16.8%	12.3%
Touches a game	10.0	7.8	9.5	6.9
Snap share	91.7%	76.7%	91.5%	84.8%

Each bar is measured against a touchdown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 4 of his team's games in this span (Jan 5 vs NYG, Dec 1 at BAL, Nov 24 at LAR, Sep 29 at TB); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

Split	Scored	Rate	TDs/game
Last 5	1/5	20%	0.20
Last 10	2/10	20%	0.20
2026 season	1/2	50%	0.50
2025 season	4/18	22%	0.22
At home	8/22	36%	0.36
On the road	5/15	33%	0.33
Vs CHI	0/1	0%	0.00
As a favorite	10/32	31%	0.31
Prime time	2/8	25%	0.25
With Jalen Hurts	13/36	36%	0.36
Without Dallas Goedert (Questionable)	5/9	56%	0.56
With Dallas Goedert	8/28	29%	0.29
Without Saquon Barkley (Questionable)	0/1	0%	0.00
With Saquon Barkley	13/36	36%	0.36

Routes

Routes and coverage

2024–25 seasons · 229 targets with a route label

Weighted by where DeVonta Smith's targets come from, CHI has allowed 0.20 yds/target more than the league average on those routes. They play man on 42% of dropbacks (league 40%).

A description of how CHI's defense has fared, not a projection. Each defense number is pulled toward the league average in proportion to how few targets it rests on.

Route	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt	CHI allow
Hitch / curl	63	78%	7.9(6.8)	+0.42	6.3
Quick out	40	85%	4.9(5.5)	+0.15	5.7
Shallow cross	21	95%	11.3(6.5)	+0.82	6.0
Go	20	30%	11.9(9.9)	+0.54	10.6
In / dig	18	72%	14.3(9.6)	+1.04	10.3
Deep out	17	53%	5.5(8.0)	+0.23	8.7
Slant	13	77%	8.2(7.2)	+0.98	7.8
Screen	12	100%	4.6(5.8)	−0.00	6.5
Post	11	64%	21.9(12.3)	+1.90	13.9
Corner	9	56%	16.0(10.4)	+1.13	11.6
Swing	4	75%	2.5(5.3)	−0.23	4.8
Wheel	1	100%	25.0(10.2)	+2.36	10.4

Against man and zone

Defense	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt
Zone	122	80%	10.7	+0.62
Man	107	67%	7.5	+0.49

Against each coverage

Defense	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt
Cover 1	75	69%	7.9	+0.49
Cover 3	46	78%	13.0	+0.88
Cover 2	38	89%	11.0	+0.70
Cover 4	28	71%	7.3	+0.25
Cover 0	24	58%	5.9	+0.27
2-man	8	75%	8.1	+1.15
Cover 6	6	83%	10.7	+0.97
Cover 9	3	67%	5.3	−1.09

Routes are the ones the player was targetedon: nflverse labels the targeted receiver's route on about nine in ten targets, and routes run without a throw are not public, so this shows where a player's looks come from, not everything he ran. Yards per target in brackets is the league figure for that route. Rows with few targets are dimmed; small samples swing.

Game log

Game	Result	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Rec TD	Snap %
2026 W2 @ TENSep 20	W 24–20	13	10	117	1	88%
2026 W1 vs WSHSep 13	W 24–22	6	3	53	0	95%
2025 W19 · playoffs vs SFJan 11	L 19–23	11	8	70	0	92%
2025 W18 vs WSHJan 4	L 17–24	4	3	52	0	14%
2025 W17 @ BUFDec 28	W 13–12	5	2	25	0	85%
2025 W16 @ WSHDec 20	W 29–18	8	6	42	1	86%
2025 W15 vs LVDec 14	W 31–0	2	2	50	0	52%
2025 W14 @ LACDec 8	L 19–22	8	4	37	0	97%
2025 W13 vs CHINov 28	L 15–24	8	5	48	0	94%
2025 W12 @ DALNov 23	L 21–24	11	6	89	0	95%
2025 W11 vs DETNov 16	W 16–9	5	1	8	0	97%
2025 W10 @ GBNov 10	W 10–7	7	4	69	1	92%
2025 W8 vs NYGOct 26	W 38–20	9	6	84	0	90%
2025 W7 @ MINOct 19	W 28–22	11	9	183	1	88%
2025 W6 @ NYGOct 9	L 17–34	5	4	49	0	96%
2025 W5 vs DENOct 5	L 17–21	10	8	114	0	98%
2025 W4 @ TBSep 28	W 31–25	2	2	29	0	91%
2025 W3 vs LARSep 21	W 33–26	9	8	60	1	96%
2025 W2 @ KCSep 14	W 20–17	6	4	53	0	75%
2025 W1 vs DALSep 4	W 24–20	3	3	16	0	89%

Prop lines come from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM through TheRundown and can lag what a book shows right now — check the book before you rely on a number. Splits count the games he played (snap counts show who was on the field) and describe the past; they are not a prediction. A game he played with no stat line counts as a zero; a game he sat out is left out, because books void the prop then. Stats and route labels from nflverse. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.