Tee Higgins

Rec/g: 4.0
Rec yds/g: 77.0
Targets/g: 8.0
2026 games: 2

Before the lines post · next: at PIT

Rec yds No line yet

CIN at PIT · Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET · favored by 3.5 · total 42.5 · wind 1 mph · 7 days rest

PIT allows the 7th-most receiving yards to WRs (161 a game over its last 17)

No book has posted this yet (they usually do a day or two before kickoff). The dashed line starts at his median over his last 10 games; drag it to any number to see how often he has cleared it. This page shows the books' price once they post.

Teammate

What if the line were61

14 of 29 over48%range 34–63%avg 80% of snaps

Middle half of these games: 44–83 · median 60 · range 15–148

Projected range · contextmedian 57middle half 34–8780% range 18.3–114

How his rec yds tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share

Higgins's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Target share	24.3%	21.8%	24.6%	18.6%
Targets a game	8.3	7.3	8.0	6.5
Snap share	77.0%	70.5%	72.0%	80.9%

Driver	CIN offense	PIT defense faces
Dropbacks per game	40.2 #4	39.1 #7
Pass rate over expected	+4.4 #4	−0.1 #19
Neutral-script pass rate	60.3% #2	55.1% #14
Dropback success rate	45.0% #17	43.2% #25

Last 17 games, ranked against the league (#1 = highest). "Defense faces" is how offenses have played against that defense. Rates over expected compare with how a typical team plays the same downs, distances and scores, shown against the league average. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Throw quality

Passes to him	Higgins	League	CIN offense	PIT defense faces
Catchable-target rate	68.6%	68.1%	73.3% #3	66.8% #22
Drop rate	2.8%	5.5%	4.5% #25	4.7% #23
Contested-target rate	34.3%	13.0%	16.9% #1	8.3% #31
Pressure on his QB	—	29.7%	28.9% #20	29.3% #22

His last 17 games and the teams' last 17. "Catchable" is FTN's charting: a defended or inaccurate pass is not catchable, and throwaways and spikes are left out. Pressure and completion under pressure come from nflverse participation, published weeks after the games (so far through 2025 week 22). Dimmed numbers are over fewer than 30 plays. Descriptive, not a forecast. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse (CC BY-SA 4.0).

Each bar is measured against the line shown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 5 of his team's games in this span (Dec 14 vs BAL, Nov 27 at BAL, Nov 7 at BAL, Nov 3 vs LV, …); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	2/5	40%	66.6	59
Last 10	5/10	50%	68.4	61
2026 season	1/2	50%	77.0	77
2025 season	6/15	40%	56.4	56
At home	6/14	43%	66.8	59
On the road	8/15	53%	65.1	62
Vs PIT	3/4	75%	70.3	66
As a favorite	6/17	35%	61.8	59
Division games	6/9	67%	67.1	67
With Joe Burrow	10/20	50%	71.3	63.5
Vs soft defenses	4/9	44%	59.0	56

Receptions No line yet

CIN at PIT · Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET · favored by 3.5 · total 42.5 · wind 1 mph · 7 days rest

PIT allows the 7th-most receptions to WRs (12 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

What if the line were4.5

15 of 29 over52%range 37–66%avg 80% of snaps

Middle half of these games: 3–6 · median 5 · range 1–11

Projected range · contextmedian 4.3middle half 2.8–5.980% range 1.7–7.6

How his receptions tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share

Higgins's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Target share	24.3%	21.8%	24.6%	18.6%
Targets a game	8.3	7.3	8.0	6.5
Snap share	77.0%	70.5%	72.0%	80.9%

Driver	CIN offense	PIT defense faces
Dropbacks per game	40.2 #4	39.1 #7
Pass rate over expected	+4.4 #4	−0.1 #19
Neutral-script pass rate	60.3% #2	55.1% #14
Dropback success rate	45.0% #17	43.2% #25

Throw quality

Passes to him	Higgins	League	CIN offense	PIT defense faces
Catchable-target rate	68.6%	68.1%	73.3% #3	66.8% #22
Drop rate	2.8%	5.5%	4.5% #25	4.7% #23
Contested-target rate	34.3%	13.0%	16.9% #1	8.3% #31
Pressure on his QB	—	29.7%	28.9% #20	29.3% #22

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	2/5	40%	4.2	4
Last 10	5/10	50%	4.3	4.5
2026 season	1/2	50%	4.0	4
2025 season	6/15	40%	3.9	3
At home	8/14	57%	5.3	5
On the road	7/15	47%	4.4	4
Vs PIT	2/4	50%	4.5	4.5
As a favorite	7/17	41%	4.6	4
Division games	5/9	56%	5.3	5
With Joe Burrow	11/20	55%	5.3	5
Vs soft defenses	3/8	38%	4.6	3

Anytime TD No line yet

CIN at PIT · Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET · favored by 3.5 · total 42.5 · wind 1 mph · 7 days rest

No book has posted this yet (they usually do a day or two before kickoff). Here is how often he has scored, in the situations this game sets up.

Teammate

16 of 29 scored55%range 40–69%avg 80% of snaps

Volume drivers and his share

Higgins's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Touch share	14.0%	12.3%	13.9%	11.6%
Touches a game	8.3	7.3	8.0	6.5
Snap share	77.0%	70.5%	72.0%	80.9%

Each bar is measured against a touchdown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 5 of his team's games in this span (Dec 14 vs BAL, Nov 27 at BAL, Nov 7 at BAL, Nov 3 vs LV, …); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

Split	Scored	Rate	TDs/game
Last 5	2/5	40%	0.40
Last 10	6/10	60%	0.60
2026 season	0/2	0%	0.00
2025 season	9/15	60%	0.60
At home	10/14	71%	0.71
On the road	6/15	40%	0.40
Vs PIT	3/4	75%	0.75
As a favorite	9/17	53%	0.53
Division games	7/9	78%	0.78
With Joe Burrow	11/20	55%	0.55

Routes

Routes and coverage

2024–25 seasons · 207 targets with a route label

Weighted by where Tee Higgins's targets come from, PIT has allowed 0.09 yds/target more than the league average on those routes. They play man on 40% of dropbacks (league 40%).

A description of how PIT's defense has fared, not a projection. Each defense number is pulled toward the league average in proportion to how few targets it rests on.

Route	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt	PIT allow
Hitch / curl	48	75%	7.1(6.8)	+0.34	6.9
Go	39	44%	12.5(9.9)	+0.99	10.3
Deep out	25	60%	8.8(8.0)	+0.48	7.2
Slant	24	79%	8.1(7.2)	−0.23	7.6
In / dig	24	63%	7.8(9.6)	+0.63	9.4
Quick out	15	80%	4.8(5.5)	+0.48	5.2
Shallow cross	11	73%	8.5(6.5)	+0.53	6.1
Post	11	64%	12.2(12.3)	+0.51	14.0
Corner	10	30%	5.3(10.4)	−0.08	10.7

Against man and zone

Defense	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt
Man	108	56%	7.8	+0.53
Zone	99	72%	9.5	+0.38

Against each coverage

Defense	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt
Cover 1	73	59%	8.4	+0.48
Cover 2	35	74%	8.9	+0.37
Cover 3	30	67%	8.4	+0.06
2-man	26	54%	8.0	+0.79
Cover 4	16	75%	13.3	+0.56
Cover 6	11	55%	7.3	+0.38
Cover 0	9	44%	2.6	+0.21
Cover 9	6	100%	13.0	+1.45

Routes are the ones the player was targetedon: nflverse labels the targeted receiver's route on about nine in ten targets, and routes run without a throw are not public, so this shows where a player's looks come from, not everything he ran. Yards per target in brackets is the league figure for that route. Rows with few targets are dimmed; small samples swing.

Game log

Game	Result	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Rec TD	Snap %
2026 W2 @ HOUSep 20	W 20–6	10	5	95	0	72%
2026 W1 vs TBSep 13	W 33–27	6	3	59	0	72%
2025 W18 vs CLEJan 4	L 18–20	9	6	67	1	87%
2025 W17 vs ARIDec 28	W 37–14	5	4	59	0	57%
2025 W16 @ MIADec 21	W 45–21	3	3	53	1	62%
2025 W14 @ BUFDec 7	L 34–39	11	6	92	2	73%
2025 W12 vs NENov 23	L 20–26	6	5	31	0	77%
2025 W11 @ PITNov 16	L 12–34	8	3	63	1	92%
2025 W9 vs CHINov 2	L 42–47	9	7	121	2	82%
2025 W8 vs NYJOct 26	L 38–39	2	1	44	1	88%
2025 W7 vs PITOct 16	W 33–31	10	6	96	1	87%
2025 W6 @ GBOct 12	L 18–27	8	5	62	0	80%
2025 W5 vs DETOct 5	L 24–37	7	3	22	1	97%
2025 W4 @ DENSep 29	L 3–28	6	3	32	0	83%
2025 W3 @ MINSep 21	L 10–48	2	1	15	0	82%
2025 W2 vs JAXSep 14	W 31–27	8	3	56	1	87%
2025 W1 @ CLESep 7	W 17–16	4	3	33	0	79%

Prop lines come from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM through TheRundown and can lag what a book shows right now — check the book before you rely on a number. Splits count the games he played (snap counts show who was on the field) and describe the past; they are not a prediction. A game he played with no stat line counts as a zero; a game he sat out is left out, because books void the prop then. Stats and route labels from nflverse. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.