NFL · Props

CeeDee Lamb

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Rec/g: 6.5
Rec yds/g: 98.5
Targets/g: 8.5
2026 games: 2

Props this week

Rec yds 76.5

Over -114 · Under -110 · books price the over at 50%

DAL vs WSH · Sun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET · favored by 4 · total 51.25 · indoors · 7 days rest · final: 153 (over)

WSH allows the 2nd-most receiving yards to WRs (169 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

Score against

What if the line were76.5

16 of 31 over52%range 37–66%avg 77% of snapsbooks price 50% at 76.5 (-114 DK)

Middle half of these games: 56–110 · median 85 · range 0–153

Projected range · contextmedian 66middle half 39–10080% range 21–132

How his rec yds tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share

Lamb's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Target share	21.4%	24.1%	27.9%	23.1%
Targets a game	6.0	7.5	8.5	8.4
Snap share	67.0%	76.7%	78.0%	72.9%

Driver	DAL offense	WSH defense faces
Dropbacks per game	38.9 #9	35.6 #20
Pass rate over expected	+2.5 #8	+1.5 #11
Neutral-script pass rate	53.5% #18	55.3% #13
Dropback success rate	49.7% #5	51.3% #4

Last 17 games, ranked against the league (#1 = highest). "Defense faces" is how offenses have played against that defense. Rates over expected compare with how a typical team plays the same downs, distances and scores, shown against the league average. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Throw quality

Passes to him	Lamb	League	DAL offense	WSH defense faces
Catchable-target rate	72.6%	68.1%	73.4% #2	68.7% #19
Drop rate	8.9%	5.5%	5.6% #14	4.8% #22
Contested-target rate	15.3%	13.0%	13.7% #15	12.0% #21
Pressure on his QB	—	29.7%	29.3% #18	30.2% #17

His last 15 games and the teams' last 17. "Catchable" is FTN's charting: a defended or inaccurate pass is not catchable, and throwaways and spikes are left out. Pressure and completion under pressure come from nflverse participation, published weeks after the games (so far through 2025 week 22). Dimmed numbers are over fewer than 30 plays. Descriptive, not a forecast. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse (CC BY-SA 4.0).

Market curve vs his games

● books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · ● his games over that number

Number	Best over	Books price	His games
main	-113 FD	50%	52% (16/31)
main	-114 DK	50%	52% (16/31)

* A one-sided price includes the book's margin, which is larger on far alternates, so the probability reads a little high. Numbers a book has not refreshed in a while, and old main lines it has moved off, are left out.

Each bar is measured against the line shown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 3 of his team's games in this span (Oct 12 at CAR, Oct 5 at NYJ, Sep 28 vs GB); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	1/5	20%	59.6	46
Last 10	4/10	40%	78.3	70.5
2026 season	1/2	50%	98.5	98.5
2025 season	7/14	50%	76.9	80
At home	11/16	69%	87.9	91.5
On the road	5/15	33%	70.8	66
Vs WSH	2/4	50%	94.0	88.5
As a favorite	7/14	50%	72.1	75.5
In domes	12/19	63%	86.3	90
Division games	5/12	42%	73.3	71
With Dak Prescott	12/24	50%	80.6	80
Vs soft defenses	5/11	45%	72.9	67

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Over	Under
MGM	76.5	-115	-115
DK	76.5	-114	-110
FD	75.5	-113	-113

Steady at 76.5 since Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET.

Receptions 5.5

Over -138 · Under +115 · books price the over at 55%

DAL vs WSH · Sun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET · favored by 4 · total 51.25 · indoors · 7 days rest · final: 8 (over)

WSH allows the 3rd-most receptions to WRs (13 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

Score against

What if the line were5.5

19 of 31 over61%range 47–74%avg 77% of snapsbooks price 55% at 5.5 (-138 FD)

Middle half of these games: 5–7 · median 6 · range 0–13

Projected range · contextmedian 4.9middle half 3.3–6.980% range 2–8.8

How his receptions tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share

Lamb's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Target share	21.4%	24.1%	27.9%	23.1%
Targets a game	6.0	7.5	8.5	8.4
Snap share	67.0%	76.7%	78.0%	72.9%

Driver	DAL offense	WSH defense faces
Dropbacks per game	38.9 #9	35.6 #20
Pass rate over expected	+2.5 #8	+1.5 #11
Neutral-script pass rate	53.5% #18	55.3% #13
Dropback success rate	49.7% #5	51.3% #4

Throw quality

Passes to him	Lamb	League	DAL offense	WSH defense faces
Catchable-target rate	72.6%	68.1%	73.4% #2	68.7% #19
Drop rate	8.9%	5.5%	5.6% #14	4.8% #22
Contested-target rate	15.3%	13.0%	13.7% #15	12.0% #21
Pressure on his QB	—	29.7%	29.3% #18	30.2% #17

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	2/5	40%	5.0	5
Last 10	5/10	50%	5.3	5.5
2026 season	1/2	50%	6.5	6.5
2025 season	8/14	57%	5.4	6
At home	11/16	69%	6.0	6
On the road	8/15	53%	6.2	6
Vs WSH	2/4	50%	7.0	6.5
As a favorite	6/14	43%	5.0	5
In domes	13/19	68%	6.1	6
Division games	6/12	50%	5.8	5.5
With Dak Prescott	13/24	54%	5.9	6
Vs soft defenses	6/11	55%	5.7	7

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Over	Under
MGM	5.5	-155	+115
DK	5.5	-139	+109
FD	5.5	-138	+104

Steady at 5.5 since Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET.

Anytime TD

Yes +110 · books price yes at 48%

DAL vs WSH · Sun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET · favored by 4 · total 51.25 · indoors · 7 days rest · final: 1 (yes)

Teammate

Score against

10 of 31 scored32%range 20–47%avg 77% of snapsbooks price 48%

Volume drivers and his share

Lamb's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Touch share	12.4%	13.1%	18.0%	13.2%
Touches a game	6.3	7.7	9.0	8.4
Snap share	67.0%	76.7%	78.0%	72.9%

Each bar is measured against a touchdown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 3 of his team's games in this span (Oct 12 at CAR, Oct 5 at NYJ, Sep 28 vs GB); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

Split	Scored	Rate	TDs/game
Last 5	2/5	40%	0.40
Last 10	4/10	40%	0.40
2026 season	2/2	100%	1.00
2025 season	3/14	21%	0.21
At home	5/16	31%	0.31
On the road	5/15	33%	0.33
Vs WSH	2/4	50%	0.50
As a favorite	6/14	43%	0.43
In domes	6/19	32%	0.32
Division games	4/12	33%	0.33
With Dak Prescott	8/24	33%	0.33

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Yes
MGM	—	+105
DK	—	+110
FD	—	+110

We have not seen a line for this yet.

Routes

Routes and coverage

2024–25 seasons · 267 targets with a route label

Weighted by where CeeDee Lamb's targets come from, WSH has allowed 0.38 yds/target more than the league average on those routes. They play man on 44% of dropbacks (league 40%).

A description of how WSH's defense has fared, not a projection. Each defense number is pulled toward the league average in proportion to how few targets it rests on.

Route	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt	WSH allow
Hitch / curl	44	75%	7.2(6.8)	+0.34	7.6
Quick out	34	79%	4.6(5.5)	+0.04	5.5
Slant	34	65%	6.2(7.2)	−0.28	8.4
Go	33	42%	15.8(9.9)	+0.70	9.4
In / dig	30	57%	10.0(9.6)	+0.21	9.9
Screen	24	92%	7.0(5.8)	+0.09	5.8
Shallow cross	20	65%	5.2(6.5)	−0.32	7.1
Deep out	17	59%	11.9(8.0)	+0.52	8.9
Corner	13	69%	16.3(10.4)	+0.98	11.1
Post	13	31%	5.5(12.3)	−0.12	12.3
Swing	4	100%	2.3(5.3)	−0.34	5.2
Texas / angle	1	100%	4.0(6.5)	−0.33	7.5

Against man and zone

Defense	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt
Zone	136	68%	7.0	+0.11
Man	131	63%	10.1	+0.27

Against each coverage

Defense	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt
Cover 1	93	63%	10.1	+0.24
Cover 2	51	82%	7.9	+0.33
Cover 3	32	63%	6.2	+0.02
Cover 4	32	63%	7.3	−0.01
2-man	26	65%	10.1	+0.50
Cover 6	13	54%	6.2	−0.28
Cover 0	12	58%	9.9	+0.06
Cover 9	5	20%	1.8	−0.42

Routes are the ones the player was targetedon: nflverse labels the targeted receiver's route on about nine in ten targets, and routes run without a throw are not public, so this shows where a player's looks come from, not everything he ran. Yards per target in brackets is the league figure for that route. Rows with few targets are dimmed; small samples swing.

Game log

Game	Result	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Rec TD	Snap %
2026 W2 vs WSHSep 20	W 37–20	9	8	153	2	75%
2026 W1 @ NYGSep 13	L 20–28	8	5	44	1	81%
2025 W18 @ NYGJan 4	L 17–34	1	1	4	0	45%
2025 W17 @ WSHDec 25	W 30–23	10	5	46	0	87%
2025 W16 vs LACDec 21	L 17–34	7	6	51	0	86%
2025 W15 vs MINDec 14	L 26–34	10	6	111	0	86%
2025 W14 @ DETDec 4	L 30–44	8	6	121	0	46%
2025 W13 vs KCNov 27	W 31–28	9	7	112	1	81%
2025 W12 vs PHINov 23	W 24–21	11	4	75	0	85%
2025 W11 @ LVNov 17	W 33–16	7	5	66	1	73%
2025 W9 vs ARINov 3	L 17–27	12	7	85	0	88%
2025 W8 @ DENOct 26	L 24–44	10	7	74	0	72%
2025 W7 vs WSHOct 19	W 44–22	8	5	110	1	78%
2025 W3 @ CHISep 21	L 14–31	0	0	0	0	9%
2025 W2 vs NYGSep 14	W 40–37	11	9	112	0	92%
2025 W1 @ PHISep 4	L 20–24	13	7	110	0	92%

Prop lines come from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM through TheRundown and can lag what a book shows right now — check the book before you rely on a number. Splits count the games he played (snap counts show who was on the field) and describe the past; they are not a prediction. A game he played with no stat line counts as a zero; a game he sat out is left out, because books void the prop then. Stats and route labels from nflverse. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.