NFL · Props

Colby Parkinson

TE · Los Angeles Rams

Rec/g: 1.0
Rec yds/g: 6.0
Targets/g: 2.0
2026 games: 1

Props this week

Rec yds 26.5

Over -113 · Under -111 · books price the over at 50% · moved 27.5 → 26.5

LAR vs NYG · Mon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET · favored by 7 · total 47.5 · wind 9 mph · 11 days rest

NYG allows the 11th-fewest receiving yards to TEs (48 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

What if the line were26.5

15 of 38 over39%range 28–53%avg 58% of snapsbooks price 50% at 26.5 (-113 DK)

Middle half of these games: 9.3–35.5 · median 18 · range -6–75

Projected range · contextmedian 22middle half 7.8–4380% range 0–66

How his rec yds tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share

Parkinson's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Target share	12.9%	13.9%	7.4%	11.0%
Targets a game	4.3	5.0	2.0	3.9
Snap share	74.0%	76.5%	77.0%	62.6%

Driver	LAR offense	NYG defense faces
Dropbacks per game	37.4 #11	36.5 #14
Pass rate over expected	+4.6 #3	+0.1 #17
Neutral-script pass rate	59.2% #6	56.1% #8
Dropback success rate	52.0% #2	45.8% #17

Last 17 games, ranked against the league (#1 = highest). "Defense faces" is how offenses have played against that defense. Rates over expected compare with how a typical team plays the same downs, distances and scores, shown against the league average. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Throw quality

Passes to him	Parkinson	League	LAR offense	NYG defense faces
Catchable-target rate	80.9%	68.1%	69.4% #7	71.9% #8
Drop rate	9.1%	5.5%	5.5% #15	8.0% #2
Contested-target rate	13.2%	13.0%	15.3% #6	14.7% #8
Pressure on his QB	—	29.7%	22.4% #31	29.8% #19

His last 17 games and the teams' last 17. "Catchable" is FTN's charting: a defended or inaccurate pass is not catchable, and throwaways and spikes are left out. Pressure and completion under pressure come from nflverse participation, published weeks after the games (so far through 2025 week 22). Dimmed numbers are over fewer than 30 plays. Descriptive, not a forecast. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse (CC BY-SA 4.0).

Market curve vs his games

● books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · ● his games over that number

Number	Best over	Books price	His games
	-650 FD	87%*	74% (28/38)
	-350 FD	78%*	55% (21/38)
	-210 FD	68%*	47% (18/38)
	-175 MGM	64%*	39% (15/38)
main	-113 DK	50%	39% (15/38)
main	-120 MGM	51%	37% (14/38)
	+112 FD	47%*	37% (14/38)
	+210 FD	32%*	24% (9/38)
	+370 FD	21%*	13% (5/38)
	+775 MGM	11%*	3% (1/38)
	+1400 FD	7%*	0% (0/38)
	+1550 MGM	6%*	0% (0/38)

* A one-sided price includes the book's margin, which is larger on far alternates, so the probability reads a little high. Numbers a book has not refreshed in a while, and old main lines it has moved off, are left out.

Each bar is measured against the line shown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 2 of his team's games in this span (Oct 12 at BAL, Sep 14 at TEN); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	4/5	80%	38.8	36
Last 10	8/10	80%	40.2	35
2026 season	0/1	0%	6.0	6
2025 season	11/18	61%	31.1	33
At home	5/19	26%	18.7	13
On the road	10/19	53%	27.7	27
As a favorite	11/24	46%	23.3	18
Long rest	2/5	40%	19.0	10
Prime time	3/12	25%	19.1	15
With Matthew Stafford	15/37	41%	23.7	19
Vs tough defenses	4/12	33%	20.5	15.5
Without Puka Nacua (Questionable)	4/7	57%	29.0	32
With Puka Nacua	11/31	35%	21.9	17
Without Jordan Whittington (Doubtful)	2/5	40%	19.4	17
With Jordan Whittington	13/33	39%	23.8	19

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Over	Under
MGM	28.5	-120	-111
DK	26.5	-113	-111
FD	26.5	-113	-113

Sep 21, 7:53 AM ET26.5▼ 1
Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET27.5first seen

Receptions 2.5

Over -185 · Under +140 · books price the over at 61%

LAR vs NYG · Mon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET · favored by 7 · total 47.5 · wind 9 mph · 11 days rest

NYG allows the 11th-fewest receptions to TEs (4.9 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

What if the line were2.5

14 of 38 over37%range 25–50%avg 58% of snapsbooks price 61% at 2.5 (-185 MGM)

Middle half of these games: 1–3 · median 2 · range 0–7

Projected range · contextmedian 2.1middle half 1–3.880% range 0–5.1

How his receptions tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share

Parkinson's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Target share	12.9%	13.9%	7.4%	11.0%
Targets a game	4.3	5.0	2.0	3.9
Snap share	74.0%	76.5%	77.0%	62.6%

Driver	LAR offense	NYG defense faces
Dropbacks per game	37.4 #11	36.5 #14
Pass rate over expected	+4.6 #3	+0.1 #17
Neutral-script pass rate	59.2% #6	56.1% #8
Dropback success rate	52.0% #2	45.8% #17

Throw quality

Passes to him	Parkinson	League	LAR offense	NYG defense faces
Catchable-target rate	80.9%	68.1%	69.4% #7	71.9% #8
Drop rate	9.1%	5.5%	5.5% #15	8.0% #2
Contested-target rate	13.2%	13.0%	15.3% #6	14.7% #8
Pressure on his QB	—	29.7%	22.4% #31	29.8% #19

Market curve vs his games

● books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · ● his games over that number

Number	Best over	Books price	His games
	-580 FD	85%*	66% (25/38)
main	-185 MGM	61%	37% (14/38)
main	+137 DK	41%*	24% (9/38)
	+280 FD	26%*	8% (3/38)
	+550 FD	15%*	5% (2/38)
	+920 FD	10%*	3% (1/38)
	+1500 FD	6%*	0% (0/38)

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	3/5	60%	2.6	3
Last 10	7/10	70%	3.3	3
2026 season	0/1	0%	1.0	1
2025 season	10/18	56%	2.8	3
At home	5/19	26%	2.2	2
On the road	9/19	47%	2.4	2
As a favorite	9/24	38%	2.2	2
Long rest	1/5	20%	2.0	2
Prime time	3/12	25%	2.0	2
With Matthew Stafford	14/37	38%	2.3	2
Vs tough defenses	5/10	50%	3.1	3
Without Puka Nacua (Questionable)	4/7	57%	3.0	3
With Puka Nacua	10/31	32%	2.1	2
Without Jordan Whittington (Doubtful)	1/5	20%	1.8	2
With Jordan Whittington	13/33	39%	2.3	2

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Over	Under
MGM	2.5	-185	+135
DK	3.5	+137	-176
FD	2.5	-188	+140

Sep 21, 7:53 AM ET2.5▼ 1
Sep 20, 7:33 PM ET3.5▲ 1
Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET2.5first seen

Anytime TD

Yes +250 · books price yes at 30%

LAR vs NYG · Mon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET · favored by 7 · total 47.5 · wind 9 mph · 11 days rest

Teammate

9 of 38 scored24%range 14–37%avg 58% of snapsbooks price 30%

Volume drivers and his share

Parkinson's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Touch share	7.1%	7.9%	3.6%	6.2%
Touches a game	4.3	5.0	2.0	3.9
Snap share	74.0%	76.5%	77.0%	62.6%

Each bar is measured against a touchdown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 2 of his team's games in this span (Oct 12 at BAL, Sep 14 at TEN); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

Split	Scored	Rate	TDs/game
Last 5	2/5	40%	0.40
Last 10	4/10	40%	0.40
2026 season	0/1	0%	0.00
2025 season	7/18	39%	0.39
At home	4/19	21%	0.21
On the road	5/19	26%	0.26
As a favorite	8/24	33%	0.33
Long rest	0/5	0%	0.00
Prime time	1/12	8%	0.08
With Matthew Stafford	9/37	24%	0.24
Without Puka Nacua (Questionable)	0/7	0%	0.00
With Puka Nacua	9/31	29%	0.29
Without Jordan Whittington (Doubtful)	2/5	40%	0.40
With Jordan Whittington	7/33	21%	0.21

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Yes
MGM	—	+210
DK	—	+250
FD	—	+240

We have not seen a line for this yet.

Routes

Routes and coverage

2024–25 seasons · 123 targets with a route label

Weighted by where Colby Parkinson's targets come from, NYG has allowed 0.03 yds/target more than the league average on those routes. They play man on 45% of dropbacks (league 40%).

A description of how NYG's defense has fared, not a projection. Each defense number is pulled toward the league average in proportion to how few targets it rests on.

Route	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt	NYG allow
Quick out	36	83%	6.7(5.5)	+0.27	5.1
Hitch / curl	26	85%	7.0(6.8)	+0.21	6.7
Screen	14	71%	8.1(5.8)	−0.15	6.1
Shallow cross	10	60%	8.4(6.5)	+0.63	6.2
Slant	9	56%	6.9(7.2)	+0.30	6.8
Go	8	38%	7.4(9.9)	+0.53	10.8
Post	8	50%	4.3(12.3)	−0.45	12.2
Corner	5	40%	8.4(10.4)	+0.42	13.1
In / dig	5	60%	11.6(9.6)	+0.80	9.4
Wheel	2	0%	0.0(10.2)	−1.17	10.8

Against man and zone

Defense	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt
Zone	87	75%	7.5	+0.32
Man	36	56%	6.1	−0.03

Against each coverage

Defense	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt
Cover 2	34	82%	6.9	+0.11
Cover 3	33	79%	9.2	+0.52
Cover 1	30	50%	5.3	−0.31
Cover 4	11	64%	7.6	+0.70
Cover 6	6	67%	5.5	+0.04
2-man	3	67%	6.7	+0.96
Cover 0	3	100%	13.7	+1.72
Cover 9	2	0%	0.0	−0.10

Routes are the ones the player was targetedon: nflverse labels the targeted receiver's route on about nine in ten targets, and routes run without a throw are not public, so this shows where a player's looks come from, not everything he ran. Yards per target in brackets is the league figure for that route. Rows with few targets are dimmed; small samples swing.

Game log

Game	Result	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Rec TD	Snap %
2026 W1 vs SFSep 10	L 7–27	2	1	6	0	77%
2025 W21 · playoffs @ SEAJan 25	L 27–31	4	3	62	0	77%
2025 W20 · playoffs @ CHIJan 18	W 20–17	7	3	56	0	68%
2025 W19 · playoffs @ CARJan 10	W 34–31	3	2	34	1	75%
2025 W18 vs ARIJan 4	W 37–20	7	4	36	2	84%
2025 W17 @ ATLDec 29	L 24–27	7	6	53	0	78%
2025 W16 @ SEADec 18	L 37–38	4	2	21	0	86%
2025 W15 vs DETDec 14	W 41–34	7	5	75	2	86%
2025 W14 @ ARIDec 7	W 45–17	5	3	32	1	69%
2025 W13 @ CARNov 30	L 28–31	5	4	27	0	67%
2025 W12 vs TBNov 23	W 34–7	4	4	41	1	62%
2025 W11 vs SEANov 16	W 21–19	2	2	14	1	69%
2025 W10 @ SFNov 9	W 42–26	5	4	41	1	57%
2025 W9 vs NONov 2	W 34–10	2	2	10	0	56%
2025 W7 @ JAXOct 19	W 35–7	3	3	47	0	47%
2025 W5 vs SFOct 2	L 23–26	1	0	0	0	37%
2025 W4 vs INDSep 28	W 27–20	2	2	17	0	28%
2025 W3 @ PHISep 21	L 26–33	0	0	0	0	32%
2025 W1 vs HOUSep 7	W 14–9	2	2	-6	0	48%

Prop lines come from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM through TheRundown and can lag what a book shows right now — check the book before you rely on a number. Splits count the games he played (snap counts show who was on the field) and describe the past; they are not a prediction. A game he played with no stat line counts as a zero; a game he sat out is left out, because books void the prop then. Stats and route labels from nflverse. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.