Probetrics — Sports Analytics

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Rush yds/g
95.0
Rec/g
3.5
Rec yds/g
31.5
Targets/g
4.0
2026 games
2

Props this week

Rush yds 79.5

Over -113 · Under -113 · books price the over at 50% · moved 81.579.5
IND at KC · Sun, Sep 20, 8:20 PM ET · underdog by 6.25 · total 46 · wind 6 mph · 7 days rest · final: 92 (over)
KC allows the 8th-fewest rushing yards to RBs (82 a game over its last 17)
Score against
79.5
20 of 33 over61%range 4673%avg 82% of snapsbooks price 50% at 79.5 (-113 FD)
2024 wk 1 · Sep 8 vs HOU: 48 · 43 snaps (96%)20242024 wk 2 · Sep 15 at GB: 103 · 29 snaps (52%)2024 wk 3 · Sep 22 vs CHI: 110 · 49 snaps (88%)2024 wk 4 · Sep 29 vs PIT: 88 · 48 snaps (73%)2024 wk 8 · Oct 27 at HOU: 105 · 52 snaps (81%)2024 wk 9 · Nov 3 at MIN: 48 · 39 snaps (72%)2024 wk 10 · Nov 10 vs BUF: 114 · 53 snaps (83%)2024 wk 11 · Nov 17 at NYJ: 57 · 63 snaps (90%)2024 wk 12 · Nov 24 vs DET: 35 · 53 snaps (96%)2024 wk 13 · Dec 1 at NE: 96 · 55 snaps (89%)2024 wk 15 · Dec 15 at DEN: 107 · 52 snaps (68%)2024 wk 16 · Dec 22 vs TEN: 218 · 47 snaps (76%)2024 wk 17 · Dec 29 at NYG: 125 · 68 snaps (88%)2024 wk 18 · Jan 5 vs JAX: 177 · 56 snaps (72%)2025 wk 1 · Sep 7 vs MIA: 71 · 52 snaps (71%)20252025 wk 2 · Sep 14 vs DEN: 165 · 66 snaps (93%)2025 wk 3 · Sep 21 at TEN: 102 · 45 snaps (79%)2025 wk 4 · Sep 28 at LAR: 76 · 53 snaps (87%)2025 wk 5 · Oct 5 vs LV: 66 · 49 snaps (74%)2025 wk 6 · Oct 12 vs ARI: 123 · 54 snaps (92%)2025 wk 7 · Oct 19 at LAC: 94 · 52 snaps (87%)2025 wk 8 · Oct 26 vs TEN: 153 · 40 snaps (75%)2025 wk 9 · Nov 2 at PIT: 45 · 62 snaps (79%)2025 wk 10 · Nov 9 vs ATL: 244 · 70 snaps (91%)2025 wk 12 · Nov 23 at KC: 58 · 46 snaps (90%)2025 wk 13 · Nov 30 vs HOU: 85 · 53 snaps (98%)2025 wk 14 · Dec 7 at JAX: 74 · 52 snaps (74%)2025 wk 15 · Dec 14 at SEA: 87 · 51 snaps (85%)2025 wk 16 · Dec 22 vs SF: 46 · 53 snaps (88%)2025 wk 17 · Dec 28 vs JAX: 70 · 51 snaps (89%)2025 wk 18 · Jan 4 at HOU: 26 · 34 snaps (52%)2026 wk 1 · Sep 13 vs BAL: 98 · 48 snaps (89%)20262026 wk 2 · Sep 20 at KC: 92 · closing line 79.5 · 61 snaps (94%)79.5
79.5

Middle half of these games: 66110 · median 92 · range 26244

Projected range · contextmedian 66middle half 409580% range 24130

How his rush yds tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share
Taylor's roleLast 3Last 620262025
Carry share71.3%78.3%82.7%73.2%
Carries a game19.019.821.519.0
Snap share78.3%82.8%91.5%82.6%
DriverIND offenseKC defense faces
Rushes per game22.8 #2322.9 #25
Rush rate over expected−1.2 #21−1.3 #21
Early-down rush rate43.2% #2546.4% #13

Last 17 games, ranked against the league (#1 = highest). "Defense faces" is how offenses have played against that defense. Rates over expected compare with how a typical team plays the same downs, distances and scores, shown against the league average. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Market curve vs his games0%50%100%39.549.559.569.579.589.599.5109.5124.5149.5174.5

books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · his games over that number

NumberBest overBooks priceHis games
-1200 FD92%*94% (31/33)
-500 FD85%*82% (27/33)
-290 FD74%*76% (25/33)
-180 FD64%*73% (24/33)
-160 MGM62%*64% (21/33)
main-113 FD50%61% (20/33)
main-112 DK50%61% (20/33)
+132 FD43%*52% (17/33)
+194 FD36%*39% (13/33)
+270 FD27%*27% (9/33)
+430 FD20%*18% (6/33)
+880 FD10%*15% (5/33)
+1500 FD6%*9% (3/33)

* A one-sided price includes the book's margin, which is larger on far alternates, so the probability reads a little high. Numbers a book has not refreshed in a while, and old main lines it has moved off, are left out.

Each bar is measured against the line shown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 3 of his team's games in this span (Oct 20 vs MIA, Oct 13 at TEN, Oct 6 at JAX); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

SplitOverRate
Last 52/540%
Last 105/1050%
2026 season2/2100%
2025 season8/1747%
At home11/1765%
On the road9/1656%
Vs KC1/250%
As an underdog9/1850%
Prime time1/333%
With Daniel Jones9/1560%
Vs tough defenses9/1753%
Without Alec Pierce (Questionable)1/333%
With Alec Pierce19/3063%
Books and line movement
BookLineOverUnder
MGM79.5-115-115
DK80.5-112-112
FD79.5-113-113
  1. Sep 20, 8:03 PM ET79.5 1
  2. Sep 20, 5:43 PM ET80.5 1
  3. Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET81.5first seen

Rec yds 16.5

Over -112 · Under -112 · books price the over at 50%
IND at KC · Sun, Sep 20, 8:20 PM ET · underdog by 6.25 · total 46 · wind 6 mph · 7 days rest · final: 40 (over)
KC allows the 16th-most receiving yards to RBs (31 a game over its last 17)
Score against
16.5
14 of 33 over42%range 2957%avg 82% of snapsbooks price 50% at 16.5 (-112 DK)
2024 wk 1 · Sep 8 vs HOU: 0 · 43 snaps (96%)20242024 wk 2 · Sep 15 at GB: 32 · 29 snaps (52%)2024 wk 3 · Sep 22 vs CHI: 25 · 49 snaps (88%)2024 wk 4 · Sep 29 vs PIT: 20 · 48 snaps (73%)2024 wk 8 · Oct 27 at HOU: 12 · 52 snaps (81%)2024 wk 9 · Nov 3 at MIN: 11 · 39 snaps (72%)2024 wk 10 · Nov 10 vs BUF: 8 · 53 snaps (83%)2024 wk 11 · Nov 17 at NYJ: 3 · 63 snaps (90%)2024 wk 12 · Nov 24 vs DET: 0 · 53 snaps (96%)2024 wk 13 · Dec 1 at NE: 7 · 55 snaps (89%)2024 wk 15 · Dec 15 at DEN: 4 · 52 snaps (68%)2024 wk 16 · Dec 22 vs TEN: 0 · 47 snaps (76%)2024 wk 17 · Dec 29 at NYG: 11 · 68 snaps (88%)2024 wk 18 · Jan 5 vs JAX: 3 · 56 snaps (72%)2025 wk 1 · Sep 7 vs MIA: 27 · 52 snaps (71%)20252025 wk 2 · Sep 14 vs DEN: 50 · 66 snaps (93%)2025 wk 3 · Sep 21 at TEN: 16 · 45 snaps (79%)2025 wk 4 · Sep 28 at LAR: 20 · 53 snaps (87%)2025 wk 5 · Oct 5 vs LV: 20 · 49 snaps (74%)2025 wk 6 · Oct 12 vs ARI: 14 · 54 snaps (92%)2025 wk 7 · Oct 19 at LAC: 38 · 52 snaps (87%)2025 wk 8 · Oct 26 vs TEN: 21 · 40 snaps (75%)2025 wk 9 · Nov 2 at PIT: 12 · 62 snaps (79%)2025 wk 10 · Nov 9 vs ATL: 42 · 70 snaps (91%)2025 wk 12 · Nov 23 at KC: 8 · 46 snaps (90%)2025 wk 13 · Nov 30 vs HOU: 36 · 53 snaps (98%)2025 wk 14 · Dec 7 at JAX: 0 · 52 snaps (74%)2025 wk 15 · Dec 14 at SEA: 14 · 51 snaps (85%)2025 wk 16 · Dec 22 vs SF: 33 · 53 snaps (88%)2025 wk 17 · Dec 28 vs JAX: 14 · 51 snaps (89%)2025 wk 18 · Jan 4 at HOU: 13 · 34 snaps (52%)2026 wk 1 · Sep 13 vs BAL: 23 · 48 snaps (89%)20262026 wk 2 · Sep 20 at KC: 40 · closing line 16.5 · 61 snaps (94%)16.5
16.5

Middle half of these games: 825 · median 14 · range 050

Volume drivers and his share
Taylor's roleLast 3Last 620262025
Target share10.9%12.6%13.6%10.4%
Targets a game3.33.84.03.2
Snap share78.3%82.8%91.5%82.6%
DriverIND offenseKC defense faces
Dropbacks per game35.0 #2234.2 #24
Pass rate over expected+1.2 #12+1.3 #12
Neutral-script pass rate55.0% #1453.0% #25
Dropback success rate45.7% #1345.4% #20

Last 17 games, ranked against the league (#1 = highest). "Defense faces" is how offenses have played against that defense. Rates over expected compare with how a typical team plays the same downs, distances and scores, shown against the league average. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Throw quality
Passes to himTaylorLeagueIND offenseKC defense faces
Catchable-target rate93.3%68.1%70.0% #570.3% #11
Drop rate5.4%5.5%5.3% #185.8% #15
Contested-target rate8.3%13.0%16.4% #37.6% #32
Pressure on his QB29.7%27.6% #2533.4% #3

His last 17 games and the teams' last 17. "Catchable" is FTN's charting: a defended or inaccurate pass is not catchable, and throwaways and spikes are left out. Pressure and completion under pressure come from nflverse participation, published weeks after the games (so far through 2025 week 22). Dimmed numbers are over fewer than 30 plays. Descriptive, not a forecast. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse (CC BY-SA 4.0).

Market curve vs his games0%50%100%4.59.514.524.529.539.549.559.574.5

books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · his games over that number

NumberBest overBooks priceHis games
-670 FD87%*79% (26/33)
-270 FD73%*70% (23/33)
-146 FD59%*45% (15/33)
main-112 DK50%42% (14/33)
+182 FD36%*27% (9/33)
+265 FD27%*21% (7/33)
+490 FD17%*9% (3/33)
+850 FD11%*3% (1/33)
+1260 FD7%*0% (0/33)
+1850 MGM5%*0% (0/33)

* A one-sided price includes the book's margin, which is larger on far alternates, so the probability reads a little high. Numbers a book has not refreshed in a while, and old main lines it has moved off, are left out.

Each bar is measured against the line shown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 3 of his team's games in this span (Oct 20 vs MIA, Oct 13 at TEN, Oct 6 at JAX); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

SplitOverRate
Last 53/560%
Last 105/1050%
2026 season2/2100%
2025 season9/1753%
At home10/1759%
On the road4/1625%
Vs KC1/250%
As an underdog7/1839%
Prime time2/367%
With Daniel Jones10/1567%
Vs middling defenses5/1242%
Without Alec Pierce (Questionable)2/367%
With Alec Pierce12/3040%
Books and line movement
BookLineOverUnder
MGM16.5-115-115
DK16.5-112-112
FD16.5-113-113

Steady at 16.5 since Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET.

Receptions 2.5

Over -127 · Under +110 · books price the over at 54%
IND at KC · Sun, Sep 20, 8:20 PM ET · underdog by 6.25 · total 46 · wind 6 mph · 7 days rest · final: 4 (over)
KC allows the 13th-fewest receptions to RBs (4.1 a game over its last 17)
Score against
2.5
15 of 33 over45%range 3260%avg 82% of snapsbooks price 54% at 2.5 (-127 DK)
2024 wk 1 · Sep 8 vs HOU: 0 · 43 snaps (96%)20242024 wk 2 · Sep 15 at GB: 2 · 29 snaps (52%)2024 wk 3 · Sep 22 vs CHI: 1 · 49 snaps (88%)2024 wk 4 · Sep 29 vs PIT: 3 · 48 snaps (73%)2024 wk 8 · Oct 27 at HOU: 1 · 52 snaps (81%)2024 wk 9 · Nov 3 at MIN: 3 · 39 snaps (72%)2024 wk 10 · Nov 10 vs BUF: 2 · 53 snaps (83%)2024 wk 11 · Nov 17 at NYJ: 1 · 63 snaps (90%)2024 wk 12 · Nov 24 vs DET: 0 · 53 snaps (96%)2024 wk 13 · Dec 1 at NE: 1 · 55 snaps (89%)2024 wk 15 · Dec 15 at DEN: 1 · 52 snaps (68%)2024 wk 16 · Dec 22 vs TEN: 0 · 47 snaps (76%)2024 wk 17 · Dec 29 at NYG: 2 · 68 snaps (88%)2024 wk 18 · Jan 5 vs JAX: 1 · 56 snaps (72%)2025 wk 1 · Sep 7 vs MIA: 3 · 52 snaps (71%)20252025 wk 2 · Sep 14 vs DEN: 2 · 66 snaps (93%)2025 wk 3 · Sep 21 at TEN: 3 · 45 snaps (79%)2025 wk 4 · Sep 28 at LAR: 5 · 53 snaps (87%)2025 wk 5 · Oct 5 vs LV: 3 · 49 snaps (74%)2025 wk 6 · Oct 12 vs ARI: 4 · 54 snaps (92%)2025 wk 7 · Oct 19 at LAC: 3 · 52 snaps (87%)2025 wk 8 · Oct 26 vs TEN: 2 · 40 snaps (75%)2025 wk 9 · Nov 2 at PIT: 2 · 62 snaps (79%)2025 wk 10 · Nov 9 vs ATL: 3 · 70 snaps (91%)2025 wk 12 · Nov 23 at KC: 2 · 46 snaps (90%)2025 wk 13 · Nov 30 vs HOU: 3 · 53 snaps (98%)2025 wk 14 · Dec 7 at JAX: 0 · 52 snaps (74%)2025 wk 15 · Dec 14 at SEA: 3 · 51 snaps (85%)2025 wk 16 · Dec 22 vs SF: 3 · 53 snaps (88%)2025 wk 17 · Dec 28 vs JAX: 3 · 51 snaps (89%)2025 wk 18 · Jan 4 at HOU: 2 · 34 snaps (52%)2026 wk 1 · Sep 13 vs BAL: 3 · 48 snaps (89%)20262026 wk 2 · Sep 20 at KC: 4 · closing line 2.5 · 61 snaps (94%)2.5
2.5

Middle half of these games: 13 · median 2 · range 05

Projected range · contextmedian 2.1middle half 13.880% range 05.1

How his receptions tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share
Taylor's roleLast 3Last 620262025
Target share10.9%12.6%13.6%10.4%
Targets a game3.33.84.03.2
Snap share78.3%82.8%91.5%82.6%
DriverIND offenseKC defense faces
Dropbacks per game35.0 #2234.2 #24
Pass rate over expected+1.2 #12+1.3 #12
Neutral-script pass rate55.0% #1453.0% #25
Dropback success rate45.7% #1345.4% #20

Last 17 games, ranked against the league (#1 = highest). "Defense faces" is how offenses have played against that defense. Rates over expected compare with how a typical team plays the same downs, distances and scores, shown against the league average. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Throw quality
Passes to himTaylorLeagueIND offenseKC defense faces
Catchable-target rate93.3%68.1%70.0% #570.3% #11
Drop rate5.4%5.5%5.3% #185.8% #15
Contested-target rate8.3%13.0%16.4% #37.6% #32
Pressure on his QB29.7%27.6% #2533.4% #3

His last 17 games and the teams' last 17. "Catchable" is FTN's charting: a defended or inaccurate pass is not catchable, and throwaways and spikes are left out. Pressure and completion under pressure come from nflverse participation, published weeks after the games (so far through 2025 week 22). Dimmed numbers are over fewer than 30 plays. Descriptive, not a forecast. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse (CC BY-SA 4.0).

Market curve vs his games0%50%100%1.52.53.54.55.56.5

books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · his games over that number

NumberBest overBooks priceHis games
-380 FD79%*70% (23/33)
main-127 DK54%45% (15/33)
+194 FD34%*9% (3/33)
+390 FD20%*3% (1/33)
+750 FD12%*0% (0/33)
+1260 FD7%*0% (0/33)

* A one-sided price includes the book's margin, which is larger on far alternates, so the probability reads a little high. Numbers a book has not refreshed in a while, and old main lines it has moved off, are left out.

Each bar is measured against the line shown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 3 of his team's games in this span (Oct 20 vs MIA, Oct 13 at TEN, Oct 6 at JAX); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

SplitOverRate
Last 54/580%
Last 107/1070%
2026 season2/2100%
2025 season11/1765%
At home9/1753%
On the road6/1638%
Vs KC1/250%
As an underdog9/1850%
Prime time3/3100%
With Daniel Jones10/1567%
Vs middling defenses6/1443%
Without Alec Pierce (Questionable)2/367%
With Alec Pierce13/3043%
Books and line movement
BookLineOverUnder
MGM2.5-150+110
DK2.5-127-101
FD2.5-128-104

Steady at 2.5 since Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET.

Rush + rec yds 102.5

Over -113 · Under -113 · books price the over at 50% · moved 103.5102.5
IND at KC · Sun, Sep 20, 8:20 PM ET · underdog by 6.25 · total 46 · wind 6 mph · 7 days rest · final: 132 (over)
KC allows the 6th-fewest rushing + receiving yards to RBs (113 a game over its last 17)
Score against
102.5
19 of 33 over58%range 4371%avg 82% of snapsbooks price 50% at 102.5 (-113 DK)
2024 wk 1 · Sep 8 vs HOU: 48 · 43 snaps (96%)20242024 wk 2 · Sep 15 at GB: 135 · 29 snaps (52%)2024 wk 3 · Sep 22 vs CHI: 135 · 49 snaps (88%)2024 wk 4 · Sep 29 vs PIT: 108 · 48 snaps (73%)2024 wk 8 · Oct 27 at HOU: 117 · 52 snaps (81%)2024 wk 9 · Nov 3 at MIN: 59 · 39 snaps (72%)2024 wk 10 · Nov 10 vs BUF: 122 · 53 snaps (83%)2024 wk 11 · Nov 17 at NYJ: 60 · 63 snaps (90%)2024 wk 12 · Nov 24 vs DET: 35 · 53 snaps (96%)2024 wk 13 · Dec 1 at NE: 103 · 55 snaps (89%)2024 wk 15 · Dec 15 at DEN: 111 · 52 snaps (68%)2024 wk 16 · Dec 22 vs TEN: 218 · 47 snaps (76%)2024 wk 17 · Dec 29 at NYG: 136 · 68 snaps (88%)2024 wk 18 · Jan 5 vs JAX: 180 · 56 snaps (72%)2025 wk 1 · Sep 7 vs MIA: 98 · 52 snaps (71%)20252025 wk 2 · Sep 14 vs DEN: 215 · 66 snaps (93%)2025 wk 3 · Sep 21 at TEN: 118 · 45 snaps (79%)2025 wk 4 · Sep 28 at LAR: 96 · 53 snaps (87%)2025 wk 5 · Oct 5 vs LV: 86 · 49 snaps (74%)2025 wk 6 · Oct 12 vs ARI: 137 · 54 snaps (92%)2025 wk 7 · Oct 19 at LAC: 132 · 52 snaps (87%)2025 wk 8 · Oct 26 vs TEN: 174 · 40 snaps (75%)2025 wk 9 · Nov 2 at PIT: 57 · 62 snaps (79%)2025 wk 10 · Nov 9 vs ATL: 286 · 70 snaps (91%)2025 wk 12 · Nov 23 at KC: 66 · 46 snaps (90%)2025 wk 13 · Nov 30 vs HOU: 121 · 53 snaps (98%)2025 wk 14 · Dec 7 at JAX: 74 · 52 snaps (74%)2025 wk 15 · Dec 14 at SEA: 101 · 51 snaps (85%)2025 wk 16 · Dec 22 vs SF: 79 · 53 snaps (88%)2025 wk 17 · Dec 28 vs JAX: 84 · 51 snaps (89%)2025 wk 18 · Jan 4 at HOU: 39 · 34 snaps (52%)2026 wk 1 · Sep 13 vs BAL: 121 · 48 snaps (89%)20262026 wk 2 · Sep 20 at KC: 132 · closing line 102.5 · 61 snaps (94%)102.5
102.5

Middle half of these games: 79135 · median 111 · range 35286

Projected range · contextmedian 96middle half 6813080% range 44163

How his rush + rec yds tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share
Taylor's roleLast 3Last 620262025
Target share10.9%12.6%13.6%10.4%
Carry share71.3%78.3%82.7%73.2%
Touches a game22.323.725.522.2
Snap share78.3%82.8%91.5%82.6%
DriverIND offenseKC defense faces
Rushes per game22.8 #2322.9 #25
Rush rate over expected−1.2 #21−1.3 #21
Dropbacks per game35.0 #2234.2 #24
Pass rate over expected+1.2 #12+1.3 #12

Last 17 games, ranked against the league (#1 = highest). "Defense faces" is how offenses have played against that defense. Rates over expected compare with how a typical team plays the same downs, distances and scores, shown against the league average. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Throw quality
Passes to himTaylorLeagueIND offenseKC defense faces
Catchable-target rate93.3%68.1%70.0% #570.3% #11
Drop rate5.4%5.5%5.3% #185.8% #15
Contested-target rate8.3%13.0%16.4% #37.6% #32
Pressure on his QB29.7%27.6% #2533.4% #3

His last 17 games and the teams' last 17. "Catchable" is FTN's charting: a defended or inaccurate pass is not catchable, and throwaways and spikes are left out. Pressure and completion under pressure come from nflverse participation, published weeks after the games (so far through 2025 week 22). Dimmed numbers are over fewer than 30 plays. Descriptive, not a forecast. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse (CC BY-SA 4.0).

Each bar is measured against the line shown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 3 of his team's games in this span (Oct 20 vs MIA, Oct 13 at TEN, Oct 6 at JAX); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

SplitOverRate
Last 52/540%
Last 104/1040%
2026 season2/2100%
2025 season7/1741%
At home11/1765%
On the road8/1650%
Vs KC1/250%
As an underdog8/1844%
Prime time1/333%
With Daniel Jones9/1560%
Vs tough defenses7/1644%
Without Alec Pierce (Questionable)1/333%
With Alec Pierce18/3060%
Books and line movement
BookLineOverUnder
DK102.5-113-113
  1. Sep 20, 7:23 PM ET102.5 1
  2. Sep 20, 6:43 PM ET101.5 1
  3. Sep 20, 6:03 PM ET102.5 1
  4. Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET103.5first seen

Rush att 18.5

Over -122 · Under -105 · books price the over at 52%
IND at KC · Sun, Sep 20, 8:20 PM ET · underdog by 6.25 · total 46 · wind 6 mph · 7 days rest · final: 24 (over)
KC allows the 8th-fewest carries to RBs (20 a game over its last 17)
Score against
18.5
19 of 33 over58%range 4371%avg 82% of snapsbooks price 52% at 18.5 (-122 DK)
2024 wk 1 · Sep 8 vs HOU: 16 · 43 snaps (96%)20242024 wk 2 · Sep 15 at GB: 12 · 29 snaps (52%)2024 wk 3 · Sep 22 vs CHI: 23 · 49 snaps (88%)2024 wk 4 · Sep 29 vs PIT: 21 · 48 snaps (73%)2024 wk 8 · Oct 27 at HOU: 20 · 52 snaps (81%)2024 wk 9 · Nov 3 at MIN: 13 · 39 snaps (72%)2024 wk 10 · Nov 10 vs BUF: 21 · 53 snaps (83%)2024 wk 11 · Nov 17 at NYJ: 24 · 63 snaps (90%)2024 wk 12 · Nov 24 vs DET: 11 · 53 snaps (96%)2024 wk 13 · Dec 1 at NE: 25 · 55 snaps (89%)2024 wk 15 · Dec 15 at DEN: 22 · 52 snaps (68%)2024 wk 16 · Dec 22 vs TEN: 29 · 47 snaps (76%)2024 wk 17 · Dec 29 at NYG: 32 · 68 snaps (88%)2024 wk 18 · Jan 5 vs JAX: 34 · 56 snaps (72%)2025 wk 1 · Sep 7 vs MIA: 18 · 52 snaps (71%)20252025 wk 2 · Sep 14 vs DEN: 25 · 66 snaps (93%)2025 wk 3 · Sep 21 at TEN: 17 · 45 snaps (79%)2025 wk 4 · Sep 28 at LAR: 17 · 53 snaps (87%)2025 wk 5 · Oct 5 vs LV: 17 · 49 snaps (74%)2025 wk 6 · Oct 12 vs ARI: 21 · 54 snaps (92%)2025 wk 7 · Oct 19 at LAC: 16 · 52 snaps (87%)2025 wk 8 · Oct 26 vs TEN: 12 · 40 snaps (75%)2025 wk 9 · Nov 2 at PIT: 14 · 62 snaps (79%)2025 wk 10 · Nov 9 vs ATL: 32 · 70 snaps (91%)2025 wk 12 · Nov 23 at KC: 16 · 46 snaps (90%)2025 wk 13 · Nov 30 vs HOU: 21 · 53 snaps (98%)2025 wk 14 · Dec 7 at JAX: 21 · 52 snaps (74%)2025 wk 15 · Dec 14 at SEA: 25 · 51 snaps (85%)2025 wk 16 · Dec 22 vs SF: 16 · 53 snaps (88%)2025 wk 17 · Dec 28 vs JAX: 21 · 51 snaps (89%)2025 wk 18 · Jan 4 at HOU: 14 · 34 snaps (52%)2026 wk 1 · Sep 13 vs BAL: 19 · 48 snaps (89%)20262026 wk 2 · Sep 20 at KC: 24 · closing line 18.5 · 61 snaps (94%)18.5
18.5

Middle half of these games: 1624 · median 21 · range 1134

Projected range · contextmedian 17.9middle half 12.82380% range 8.828

How his rush att tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share
Taylor's roleLast 3Last 620262025
Carry share71.3%78.3%82.7%73.2%
Carries a game19.019.821.519.0
Snap share78.3%82.8%91.5%82.6%
DriverIND offenseKC defense faces
Rushes per game22.8 #2322.9 #25
Rush rate over expected−1.2 #21−1.3 #21
Early-down rush rate43.2% #2546.4% #13

Last 17 games, ranked against the league (#1 = highest). "Defense faces" is how offenses have played against that defense. Rates over expected compare with how a typical team plays the same downs, distances and scores, shown against the league average. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Market curve vs his games0%50%100%18.520.5

books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · his games over that number

NumberBest overBooks priceHis games
main-122 DK52%58% (19/33)
main-111 MGM49%52% (17/33)

* A one-sided price includes the book's margin, which is larger on far alternates, so the probability reads a little high. Numbers a book has not refreshed in a while, and old main lines it has moved off, are left out.

Each bar is measured against the line shown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 3 of his team's games in this span (Oct 20 vs MIA, Oct 13 at TEN, Oct 6 at JAX); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

SplitOverRate
Last 53/560%
Last 107/1070%
2026 season2/2100%
2025 season7/1741%
At home11/1765%
On the road8/1650%
Vs KC1/250%
As an underdog10/1856%
Prime time1/333%
With Daniel Jones7/1547%
Vs tough defenses11/1861%
Without Alec Pierce (Questionable)1/333%
With Alec Pierce18/3060%
Books and line movement
BookLineOverUnder
MGM20.5-111-118
DK18.5-122-105
  1. Sep 20, 6:03 PM ET18.5 2
  2. Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET20.5first seen

Anytime TD

Yes -145 · books price yes at 60%
IND at KC · Sun, Sep 20, 8:20 PM ET · underdog by 6.25 · total 46 · wind 6 mph · 7 days rest · final: 1 (yes)
Score against
20 of 33 scored61%range 4673%avg 82% of snapsbooks price 60%
2024 wk 1 · Sep 8 vs HOU: 1 · 43 snaps (96%)20242024 wk 2 · Sep 15 at GB: 0 · 29 snaps (52%)2024 wk 3 · Sep 22 vs CHI: 1 · 49 snaps (88%)2024 wk 4 · Sep 29 vs PIT: 1 · 48 snaps (73%)2024 wk 8 · Oct 27 at HOU: 1 · 52 snaps (81%)2024 wk 9 · Nov 3 at MIN: 0 · 39 snaps (72%)2024 wk 10 · Nov 10 vs BUF: 0 · 53 snaps (83%)2024 wk 11 · Nov 17 at NYJ: 0 · 63 snaps (90%)2024 wk 12 · Nov 24 vs DET: 0 · 53 snaps (96%)2024 wk 13 · Dec 1 at NE: 1 · 55 snaps (89%)2024 wk 15 · Dec 15 at DEN: 0 · 52 snaps (68%)2024 wk 16 · Dec 22 vs TEN: 1 · 47 snaps (76%)2024 wk 17 · Dec 29 at NYG: 1 · 68 snaps (88%)2024 wk 18 · Jan 5 vs JAX: 1 · 56 snaps (72%)2025 wk 1 · Sep 7 vs MIA: 0 · 52 snaps (71%)20252025 wk 2 · Sep 14 vs DEN: 1 · 66 snaps (93%)2025 wk 3 · Sep 21 at TEN: 1 · 45 snaps (79%)2025 wk 4 · Sep 28 at LAR: 0 · 53 snaps (87%)2025 wk 5 · Oct 5 vs LV: 1 · 49 snaps (74%)2025 wk 6 · Oct 12 vs ARI: 1 · 54 snaps (92%)2025 wk 7 · Oct 19 at LAC: 1 · 52 snaps (87%)2025 wk 8 · Oct 26 vs TEN: 1 · 40 snaps (75%)2025 wk 9 · Nov 2 at PIT: 0 · 62 snaps (79%)2025 wk 10 · Nov 9 vs ATL: 1 · 70 snaps (91%)2025 wk 12 · Nov 23 at KC: 0 · 46 snaps (90%)2025 wk 13 · Nov 30 vs HOU: 0 · 53 snaps (98%)2025 wk 14 · Dec 7 at JAX: 1 · 52 snaps (74%)2025 wk 15 · Dec 14 at SEA: 0 · 51 snaps (85%)2025 wk 16 · Dec 22 vs SF: 1 · 53 snaps (88%)2025 wk 17 · Dec 28 vs JAX: 1 · 51 snaps (89%)2025 wk 18 · Jan 4 at HOU: 0 · 34 snaps (52%)2026 wk 1 · Sep 13 vs BAL: 1 · 48 snaps (89%)20262026 wk 2 · Sep 20 at KC: 1 · 61 snaps (94%)
Volume drivers and his share
Taylor's roleLast 3Last 620262025
Touch share39.0%42.4%45.9%39.0%
Touches a game22.323.725.522.2
Snap share78.3%82.8%91.5%82.6%

Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Each bar is measured against a touchdown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 3 of his team's games in this span (Oct 20 vs MIA, Oct 13 at TEN, Oct 6 at JAX); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

SplitScoredRate
Last 54/580%
Last 106/1060%
2026 season2/2100%
2025 season10/1759%
At home13/1776%
On the road7/1644%
Vs KC1/250%
As an underdog9/1850%
Prime time2/367%
With Daniel Jones10/1567%
Without Alec Pierce (Questionable)2/367%
With Alec Pierce18/3060%
Books and line movement
BookLineYes
MGM-155
DK-145
FD-145

We have not seen a line for this yet.

Routes

Routes and coverage

2024–25 seasons · 87 targets with a route label
Weighted by where Jonathan Taylor's targets come from, KC has allowed 0.12 yds/target less than the league average on those routes. They play man on 48% of dropbacks (league 40%).
A description of how KC's defense has fared, not a projection. Each defense number is pulled toward the league average in proportion to how few targets it rests on.
RouteShareTgtCatchYds/tgtEPA/tgtKC allow
Quick out
3370%4.4(5.5)−0.185.7
Screen
1883%7.0(5.8)−0.185.7
Swing
1479%7.1(5.3)+0.204.5
Hitch / curl
888%7.1(6.8)+0.196.6
Texas / angle
863%3.9(6.5)−0.066.3
Shallow cross
2100%19.0(6.5)+2.336.4
Wheel
20%0.0(10.2)−1.0510.3
Go
10%0.0(9.9)−0.8711.0
Post
1100%18.0(12.3)+1.1410.7

Against man and zone

DefenseTgtCatchYds/tgtEPA/tgt
Zone6677%6.0+0.07
Man2162%5.6−0.33

Against each coverage

DefenseTgtCatchYds/tgtEPA/tgt
Cover 32370%6.0−0.06
Cover 22391%5.6+0.04
Cover 11753%5.6−0.45
Cover 4967%7.4+0.43
Cover 9771%3.3−0.36
2-man4100%5.5+0.20
Cover 6367%7.0+0.49

Routes are the ones the player was targetedon: nflverse labels the targeted receiver's route on about nine in ten targets, and routes run without a throw are not public, so this shows where a player's looks come from, not everything he ran. Yards per target in brackets is the league figure for that route. Rows with few targets are dimmed; small samples swing.

Quarters and halves

By quarter and half

2025–26 seasons · per game, 19 games played
StatQ1Q2Q3Q41H2HGame1H share
Rush yds
22.4
18.8
27.6
22.8
41.252.293.444%
Rush att
5.3
4.8
4.7
3.9
10.19.219.352%
Rec yds
7.6
6.1
5.1
4.4
13.79.523.259%
Receptions
0.74
0.74
0.74
0.58
1.471.322.7953%
Targets
0.89
1.00
0.84
0.58
1.891.423.3257%

Averages over the games he played, from nflverse play-by-play; overtime counts in the second half and the game only. Book lines for a half or quarter are not in our data, so this is history to read against a line, not a comparison with one. A team that is ahead runs more in the second half, one that is behind throws more: the split describes how games went, not how the next one will.

Game log

GameResultCarRush ydsRush TDTgtRecRec ydsRec TDSnap %
2026 W2 @ KCSep 20L 3033249224440094%
2026 W1 vs BALSep 13L 2341199824323089%
2025 W18 @ HOUJan 4L 3038142602213052%
2025 W17 vs JAXDec 28L 1723217016314089%
2025 W16 vs SFDec 22L 2748164613333088%
2025 W15 @ SEADec 14L 1618258704314085%
2025 W14 @ JAXDec 7L 193621741000074%
2025 W13 vs HOUNov 30L 1620218505336098%
2025 W12 @ KCNov 23L 202316580328090%
2025 W10 vs ATLNov 9W 31253224433342091%
2025 W9 @ PITNov 2L 2027144502212079%
2025 W8 vs TENOct 26W 38141215322221175%
2025 W7 @ LACOct 19W 3824169433338087%
2025 W6 vs ARIOct 12W 31272112314414092%
2025 W5 vs LVOct 5W 406176634320074%
2025 W4 @ LARSep 28L 2027177605520087%
2025 W3 @ TENSep 21W 41201710234316079%
2025 W2 vs DENSep 14W 29282516502250193%
2025 W1 vs MIASep 7W 338187103327071%

Prop lines come from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM through TheRundown and can lag what a book shows right now — check the book before you rely on a number. Splits count the games he played (snap counts show who was on the field) and describe the past; they are not a prediction. A game he played with no stat line counts as a zero; a game he sat out is left out, because books void the prop then. Stats and route labels from nflverse. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.