Probetrics — Sports Analytics

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Pass yds/g
283.0
Rush yds/g
20.0
2026 games
2

Props this week

Pass yds 221.5

Over -113 · Under -111 · books price the over at 50%
KC vs IND · Sun, Sep 20, 8:20 PM ET · favored by 6.25 · total 46 · wind 6 mph · 6 days rest · final: 382 (over)
IND allows the most passing yards to QBs (283 a game over its last 17)
Score against
221.5
24 of 35 over69%range 5580%avg 99% of snapsbooks price 50% at 221.5 (-113 DK)
2024 wk 1 · Sep 5 vs BAL: 291 · 54 snaps (100%)20242024 wk 2 · Sep 15 vs CIN: 151 · 65 snaps (100%)2024 wk 3 · Sep 22 at ATL: 217 · 74 snaps (100%)2024 wk 4 · Sep 29 at LAC: 245 · 62 snaps (100%)2024 wk 5 · Oct 7 vs NO: 331 · 84 snaps (100%)2024 wk 7 · Oct 20 at SF: 154 · 70 snaps (100%)2024 wk 8 · Oct 27 at LV: 262 · 72 snaps (100%)2024 wk 9 · Nov 4 vs TB: 291 · 85 snaps (100%)2024 wk 10 · Nov 10 vs DEN: 266 · 68 snaps (100%)2024 wk 11 · Nov 17 at BUF: 196 · 55 snaps (100%)2024 wk 12 · Nov 24 at CAR: 269 · 74 snaps (100%)2024 wk 13 · Nov 29 vs LV: 306 · 71 snaps (100%)2024 wk 14 · Dec 8 vs LAC: 210 · 69 snaps (100%)2024 wk 15 · Dec 15 at CLE: 159 · 67 snaps (89%)2024 wk 16 · Dec 21 vs HOU: 260 · 74 snaps (100%)2024 wk 17 · Dec 25 at PIT: 320 · 62 snaps (100%)2024 wk 20 · Jan 18 vs HOU: 177 · 51 snaps (100%)2024 wk 21 · Jan 26 vs BUF: 245 · 66 snaps (100%)2024 wk 22 · Feb 9 at PHI: 257 · 56 snaps (100%)2025 wk 1 · Sep 5 at LAC: 258 · 61 snaps (100%)20252025 wk 2 · Sep 14 vs PHI: 187 · 60 snaps (100%)2025 wk 3 · Sep 21 at NYG: 224 · 72 snaps (100%)2025 wk 4 · Sep 28 vs BAL: 270 · 67 snaps (92%)2025 wk 5 · Oct 6 at JAX: 318 · 64 snaps (100%)2025 wk 6 · Oct 12 vs DET: 257 · 64 snaps (100%)2025 wk 7 · Oct 19 vs LV: 286 · 65 snaps (80%)2025 wk 8 · Oct 27 vs WSH: 299 · 69 snaps (100%)2025 wk 9 · Nov 2 at BUF: 250 · 60 snaps (100%)2025 wk 11 · Nov 16 at DEN: 276 · 70 snaps (100%)2025 wk 12 · Nov 23 vs IND: 352 · 96 snaps (100%)2025 wk 13 · Nov 27 at DAL: 261 · 66 snaps (100%)2025 wk 14 · Dec 7 vs HOU: 160 · 64 snaps (100%)2025 wk 15 · Dec 14 vs LAC: 189 · 56 snaps (92%)2026 wk 1 · Sep 14 vs DEN: 184 · 69 snaps (100%)20262026 wk 2 · Sep 20 vs IND: 382 · closing line 221.5 · 80 snaps (100%)221.5
221.5

Middle half of these games: 203288.5 · median 258 · range 151382

Projected range · contextmedian 246middle half 19929680% range 167343

How his pass yds tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share
Mahomes's roleLast 3Last 620262025
Pass attempts a game34.035.837.035.9
Snap share97.3%98.7%100.0%97.4%
DriverKC offenseIND defense faces
Dropbacks per game40.4 #341.4 #1
Pass rate over expected+5.8 #2+2.1 #8
Neutral-script pass rate60.1% #357.6% #3
Dropback success rate46.4% #1248.5% #10
EPA per dropback+0.08 #13+0.10 #11

Last 17 games, ranked against the league (#1 = highest). "Defense faces" is how offenses have played against that defense. Rates over expected compare with how a typical team plays the same downs, distances and scores, shown against the league average. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Throw quality
His passesMahomesLeagueIND defense faces
Catchable-ball rate68.6%68.1%69.8% #14
Interception-worthy throws3.3%3.1%2.4% #26
Completion % under pressure33.5%34.6%35.7% #15
Completion % clean69.7%69.4%70.3% #13
Pressure rate30.5%29.7%29.8% #18
Drops by his receivers6.2%5.5%5.9% #14

His last 15 games and the teams' last 17. "Catchable" is FTN's charting: a defended or inaccurate pass is not catchable, and throwaways and spikes are left out. Pressure and completion under pressure come from nflverse participation, published weeks after the games (so far through 2025 week 22). Dimmed numbers are over fewer than 30 plays. Descriptive, not a forecast. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse (CC BY-SA 4.0).

Market curve vs his games0%50%100%124.5149.5174.5199.5221.5249.5274.5299.5324.5349.5

books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · his games over that number

NumberBest overBooks priceHis games
-2000 FD95%*100% (35/35)
-750 FD92%*100% (35/35)
-390 FD80%*89% (31/35)
-200 FD70%*74% (26/35)
main-113 DK50%69% (24/35)
main-115 MGM50%69% (24/35)
+172 FD38%*60% (21/35)
+290 FD26%*31% (11/35)
+525 MGM16%*17% (6/35)
+850 FD11%*9% (3/35)
+1250 MGM7%*6% (2/35)

* A one-sided price includes the book's margin, which is larger on far alternates, so the probability reads a little high. Numbers a book has not refreshed in a while, and old main lines it has moved off, are left out.

Each bar is measured against the line shown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 1 of his team's games in this span (Jan 5 at DEN); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

SplitOverRate
Last 52/540%
Last 107/1070%
2026 season1/250%
2025 season11/1479%
At home13/2065%
On the road11/1573%
Vs IND2/2100%
As a favorite23/3174%
Short rest8/8100%
Prime time9/1369%
Vs soft defenses8/989%
Books and line movement
BookLineOverUnder
MGM223.5-115-115
DK221.5-113-111
FD221.5-113-113

Steady at 221.5 since Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET.

Rush yds 17.5

Over -113 · Under -111 · books price the over at 50%
KC vs IND · Sun, Sep 20, 8:20 PM ET · favored by 6.25 · total 46 · wind 6 mph · 6 days rest · final: 17 (under)
IND allows the 5th-fewest rushing yards to QBs (14 a game over its last 17)
Score against
17.5
18 of 35 over51%range 3865%avg 99% of snapsbooks price 50% at 17.5 (-113 DK)
2024 wk 1 · Sep 5 vs BAL: 3 · 54 snaps (100%)20242024 wk 2 · Sep 15 vs CIN: 29 · 65 snaps (100%)2024 wk 3 · Sep 22 at ATL: 17 · 74 snaps (100%)2024 wk 4 · Sep 29 at LAC: 12 · 62 snaps (100%)2024 wk 5 · Oct 7 vs NO: 22 · 84 snaps (100%)2024 wk 7 · Oct 20 at SF: 39 · 70 snaps (100%)2024 wk 8 · Oct 27 at LV: 17 · 72 snaps (100%)2024 wk 9 · Nov 4 vs TB: 9 · 85 snaps (100%)2024 wk 10 · Nov 10 vs DEN: 19 · 68 snaps (100%)2024 wk 11 · Nov 17 at BUF: 0 · 55 snaps (100%)2024 wk 12 · Nov 24 at CAR: 60 · 74 snaps (100%)2024 wk 13 · Nov 29 vs LV: 4 · 71 snaps (100%)2024 wk 14 · Dec 8 vs LAC: 17 · 69 snaps (100%)2024 wk 15 · Dec 15 at CLE: 14 · 67 snaps (89%)2024 wk 16 · Dec 21 vs HOU: 33 · 74 snaps (100%)2024 wk 17 · Dec 25 at PIT: 12 · 62 snaps (100%)2024 wk 20 · Jan 18 vs HOU: 14 · 51 snaps (100%)2024 wk 21 · Jan 26 vs BUF: 43 · 66 snaps (100%)2024 wk 22 · Feb 9 at PHI: 25 · 56 snaps (100%)2025 wk 1 · Sep 5 at LAC: 57 · 61 snaps (100%)20252025 wk 2 · Sep 14 vs PHI: 66 · 60 snaps (100%)2025 wk 3 · Sep 21 at NYG: 2 · 72 snaps (100%)2025 wk 4 · Sep 28 vs BAL: 5 · 67 snaps (92%)2025 wk 5 · Oct 6 at JAX: 60 · 64 snaps (100%)2025 wk 6 · Oct 12 vs DET: 32 · 64 snaps (100%)2025 wk 7 · Oct 19 vs LV: 28 · 65 snaps (80%)2025 wk 8 · Oct 27 vs WSH: 30 · 69 snaps (100%)2025 wk 9 · Nov 2 at BUF: 5 · 60 snaps (100%)2025 wk 11 · Nov 16 at DEN: 3 · 70 snaps (100%)2025 wk 12 · Nov 23 vs IND: 30 · 96 snaps (100%)2025 wk 13 · Nov 27 at DAL: 30 · 66 snaps (100%)2025 wk 14 · Dec 7 vs HOU: 59 · 64 snaps (100%)2025 wk 15 · Dec 14 vs LAC: 15 · 56 snaps (92%)2026 wk 1 · Sep 14 vs DEN: 23 · 69 snaps (100%)20262026 wk 2 · Sep 20 vs IND: 17 · closing line 17.5 · 80 snaps (100%)17.5
17.5

Middle half of these games: 1231 · median 19 · range 066

Projected range · contextmedian 16.5middle half 4.83580% range 057

How his rush yds tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share
Mahomes's roleLast 3Last 620262025
Carry share12.6%13.9%13.6%17.2%
Carries a game3.74.24.54.6
Snap share97.3%98.7%100.0%97.4%
DriverKC offenseIND defense faces
Rushes per game22.8 #2425.5 #11
Rush rate over expected−5.8 #31−2.1 #25
Early-down rush rate39.7% #2941.6% #28

Last 17 games, ranked against the league (#1 = highest). "Defense faces" is how offenses have played against that defense. Rates over expected compare with how a typical team plays the same downs, distances and scores, shown against the league average. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Market curve vs his games0%50%100%9.517.524.539.549.559.599.5

books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · his games over that number

NumberBest overBooks priceHis games
-320 FD76%*77% (27/35)
-162 FD62%*66% (23/35)
main-113 DK50%51% (18/35)
+110 FD48%*49% (17/35)
+182 FD38%*43% (15/35)
+270 FD27%*34% (12/35)
+580 FD15%*17% (6/35)
+1100 FD10%*14% (5/35)
+1700 FD6%*9% (3/35)
+1900 MGM5%*0% (0/35)

* A one-sided price includes the book's margin, which is larger on far alternates, so the probability reads a little high. Numbers a book has not refreshed in a while, and old main lines it has moved off, are left out.

Each bar is measured against the line shown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 1 of his team's games in this span (Jan 5 at DEN); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

SplitOverRate
Last 53/560%
Last 106/1060%
2026 season1/250%
2025 season9/1464%
At home12/2060%
On the road6/1540%
Vs IND1/250%
As a favorite16/3152%
Short rest4/850%
Prime time7/1354%
Vs tough defenses5/1050%
Books and line movement
BookLineOverUnder
MGM17.5-115-115
DK17.5-113-111
FD17.5-113-113

Steady at 17.5 since Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET.

Pass TDs 1.5

Over -115 · Under -110 · books price the over at 51%
KC vs IND · Sun, Sep 20, 8:20 PM ET · favored by 6.25 · total 46 · wind 6 mph · 6 days rest · final: 3 (over)
IND allows the 15th-fewest passing TDs to QBs (1.4 a game over its last 17)
Score against
1.5
16 of 35 over46%range 3359%avg 99% of snapsbooks price 51% at 1.5 (-115 DK)
2024 wk 1 · Sep 5 vs BAL: 1 · 54 snaps (100%)20242024 wk 2 · Sep 15 vs CIN: 2 · 65 snaps (100%)2024 wk 3 · Sep 22 at ATL: 2 · 74 snaps (100%)2024 wk 4 · Sep 29 at LAC: 1 · 62 snaps (100%)2024 wk 5 · Oct 7 vs NO: 0 · 84 snaps (100%)2024 wk 7 · Oct 20 at SF: 0 · 70 snaps (100%)2024 wk 8 · Oct 27 at LV: 2 · 72 snaps (100%)2024 wk 9 · Nov 4 vs TB: 3 · 85 snaps (100%)2024 wk 10 · Nov 10 vs DEN: 1 · 68 snaps (100%)2024 wk 11 · Nov 17 at BUF: 3 · 55 snaps (100%)2024 wk 12 · Nov 24 at CAR: 3 · 74 snaps (100%)2024 wk 13 · Nov 29 vs LV: 1 · 71 snaps (100%)2024 wk 14 · Dec 8 vs LAC: 1 · 69 snaps (100%)2024 wk 15 · Dec 15 at CLE: 2 · 67 snaps (89%)2024 wk 16 · Dec 21 vs HOU: 1 · 74 snaps (100%)2024 wk 17 · Dec 25 at PIT: 3 · 62 snaps (100%)2024 wk 20 · Jan 18 vs HOU: 1 · 51 snaps (100%)2024 wk 21 · Jan 26 vs BUF: 1 · 66 snaps (100%)2024 wk 22 · Feb 9 at PHI: 3 · 56 snaps (100%)2025 wk 1 · Sep 5 at LAC: 1 · 61 snaps (100%)20252025 wk 2 · Sep 14 vs PHI: 1 · 60 snaps (100%)2025 wk 3 · Sep 21 at NYG: 1 · 72 snaps (100%)2025 wk 4 · Sep 28 vs BAL: 4 · 67 snaps (92%)2025 wk 5 · Oct 6 at JAX: 1 · 64 snaps (100%)2025 wk 6 · Oct 12 vs DET: 3 · 64 snaps (100%)2025 wk 7 · Oct 19 vs LV: 3 · 65 snaps (80%)2025 wk 8 · Oct 27 vs WSH: 3 · 69 snaps (100%)2025 wk 9 · Nov 2 at BUF: 0 · 60 snaps (100%)2025 wk 11 · Nov 16 at DEN: 1 · 70 snaps (100%)2025 wk 12 · Nov 23 vs IND: 0 · 96 snaps (100%)2025 wk 13 · Nov 27 at DAL: 4 · 66 snaps (100%)2025 wk 14 · Dec 7 vs HOU: 0 · 64 snaps (100%)2025 wk 15 · Dec 14 vs LAC: 0 · 56 snaps (92%)2026 wk 1 · Sep 14 vs DEN: 2 · 69 snaps (100%)20262026 wk 2 · Sep 20 vs IND: 3 · closing line 1.5 · 80 snaps (100%)1.5
1.5

Middle half of these games: 13 · median 1 · range 04

Projected range · contextmedian 1.1middle half 12.280% range 03.2

How his pass tds tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share
Mahomes's roleLast 3Last 620262025
Pass attempts a game34.035.837.035.9
Snap share97.3%98.7%100.0%97.4%
DriverKC offenseIND defense faces
Dropbacks per game40.4 #341.4 #1
Pass rate over expected+5.8 #2+2.1 #8
Neutral-script pass rate60.1% #357.6% #3
Dropback success rate46.4% #1248.5% #10
EPA per dropback+0.08 #13+0.10 #11

Last 17 games, ranked against the league (#1 = highest). "Defense faces" is how offenses have played against that defense. Rates over expected compare with how a typical team plays the same downs, distances and scores, shown against the league average. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Throw quality
His passesMahomesLeagueIND defense faces
Catchable-ball rate68.6%68.1%69.8% #14
Interception-worthy throws3.3%3.1%2.4% #26
Completion % under pressure33.5%34.6%35.7% #15
Completion % clean69.7%69.4%70.3% #13
Pressure rate30.5%29.7%29.8% #18
Drops by his receivers6.2%5.5%5.9% #14

His last 15 games and the teams' last 17. "Catchable" is FTN's charting: a defended or inaccurate pass is not catchable, and throwaways and spikes are left out. Pressure and completion under pressure come from nflverse participation, published weeks after the games (so far through 2025 week 22). Dimmed numbers are over fewer than 30 plays. Descriptive, not a forecast. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse (CC BY-SA 4.0).

Market curve vs his games0%50%100%0.51.52.53.5

books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · his games over that number

NumberBest overBooks priceHis games
-670 FD87%*83% (29/35)
main-115 DK51%46% (16/35)
+310 FD24%*31% (11/35)
+920 FD10%*6% (2/35)

* A one-sided price includes the book's margin, which is larger on far alternates, so the probability reads a little high. Numbers a book has not refreshed in a while, and old main lines it has moved off, are left out.

Each bar is measured against the line shown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 1 of his team's games in this span (Jan 5 at DEN); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

SplitOverRate
Last 53/560%
Last 105/1050%
2026 season2/2100%
2025 season5/1436%
At home8/2040%
On the road8/1553%
Vs IND1/250%
As a favorite14/3145%
Short rest4/850%
Prime time6/1346%
Vs middling defenses8/1457%
Books and line movement
BookLineOverUnder
DK1.5-115-111
FD1.5-118-110

Steady at 1.5 since Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET.

Pass att 30.5

Over -120 · Under -103 · books price the over at 52%
KC vs IND · Sun, Sep 20, 8:20 PM ET · favored by 6.25 · total 46 · wind 6 mph · 6 days rest · final: 47 (over)
IND allows the most pass attempts to QBs (38 a game over its last 17)
Score against
30.5
25 of 35 over71%range 5882%avg 99% of snapsbooks price 52% at 30.5 (-120 MGM)
2024 wk 1 · Sep 5 vs BAL: 28 · 54 snaps (100%)20242024 wk 2 · Sep 15 vs CIN: 25 · 65 snaps (100%)2024 wk 3 · Sep 22 at ATL: 39 · 74 snaps (100%)2024 wk 4 · Sep 29 at LAC: 29 · 62 snaps (100%)2024 wk 5 · Oct 7 vs NO: 39 · 84 snaps (100%)2024 wk 7 · Oct 20 at SF: 27 · 70 snaps (100%)2024 wk 8 · Oct 27 at LV: 38 · 72 snaps (100%)2024 wk 9 · Nov 4 vs TB: 44 · 85 snaps (100%)2024 wk 10 · Nov 10 vs DEN: 42 · 68 snaps (100%)2024 wk 11 · Nov 17 at BUF: 33 · 55 snaps (100%)2024 wk 12 · Nov 24 at CAR: 37 · 74 snaps (100%)2024 wk 13 · Nov 29 vs LV: 46 · 71 snaps (100%)2024 wk 14 · Dec 8 vs LAC: 37 · 69 snaps (100%)2024 wk 15 · Dec 15 at CLE: 38 · 67 snaps (89%)2024 wk 16 · Dec 21 vs HOU: 41 · 74 snaps (100%)2024 wk 17 · Dec 25 at PIT: 38 · 62 snaps (100%)2024 wk 20 · Jan 18 vs HOU: 25 · 51 snaps (100%)2024 wk 21 · Jan 26 vs BUF: 26 · 66 snaps (100%)2024 wk 22 · Feb 9 at PHI: 32 · 56 snaps (100%)2025 wk 1 · Sep 5 at LAC: 39 · 61 snaps (100%)20252025 wk 2 · Sep 14 vs PHI: 29 · 60 snaps (100%)2025 wk 3 · Sep 21 at NYG: 37 · 72 snaps (100%)2025 wk 4 · Sep 28 vs BAL: 37 · 67 snaps (92%)2025 wk 5 · Oct 6 at JAX: 41 · 64 snaps (100%)2025 wk 6 · Oct 12 vs DET: 30 · 64 snaps (100%)2025 wk 7 · Oct 19 vs LV: 35 · 65 snaps (80%)2025 wk 8 · Oct 27 vs WSH: 34 · 69 snaps (100%)2025 wk 9 · Nov 2 at BUF: 34 · 60 snaps (100%)2025 wk 11 · Nov 16 at DEN: 45 · 70 snaps (100%)2025 wk 12 · Nov 23 vs IND: 46 · 96 snaps (100%)2025 wk 13 · Nov 27 at DAL: 34 · 66 snaps (100%)2025 wk 14 · Dec 7 vs HOU: 33 · 64 snaps (100%)2025 wk 15 · Dec 14 vs LAC: 28 · 56 snaps (92%)2026 wk 1 · Sep 14 vs DEN: 27 · 69 snaps (100%)20262026 wk 2 · Sep 20 vs IND: 47 · closing line 30.5 · 80 snaps (100%)30.5
30.5

Middle half of these games: 29.539 · median 37 · range 2547

Projected range · contextmedian 35middle half 294080% range 2545

How his pass att tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share
Mahomes's roleLast 3Last 620262025
Pass attempts a game34.035.837.035.9
Snap share97.3%98.7%100.0%97.4%
DriverKC offenseIND defense faces
Dropbacks per game40.4 #341.4 #1
Pass rate over expected+5.8 #2+2.1 #8
Neutral-script pass rate60.1% #357.6% #3
Dropback success rate46.4% #1248.5% #10
EPA per dropback+0.08 #13+0.10 #11

Last 17 games, ranked against the league (#1 = highest). "Defense faces" is how offenses have played against that defense. Rates over expected compare with how a typical team plays the same downs, distances and scores, shown against the league average. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Throw quality
His passesMahomesLeagueIND defense faces
Catchable-ball rate68.6%68.1%69.8% #14
Interception-worthy throws3.3%3.1%2.4% #26
Completion % under pressure33.5%34.6%35.7% #15
Completion % clean69.7%69.4%70.3% #13
Pressure rate30.5%29.7%29.8% #18
Drops by his receivers6.2%5.5%5.9% #14

His last 15 games and the teams' last 17. "Catchable" is FTN's charting: a defended or inaccurate pass is not catchable, and throwaways and spikes are left out. Pressure and completion under pressure come from nflverse participation, published weeks after the games (so far through 2025 week 22). Dimmed numbers are over fewer than 30 plays. Descriptive, not a forecast. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse (CC BY-SA 4.0).

Each bar is measured against the line shown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 1 of his team's games in this span (Jan 5 at DEN); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

SplitOverRate
Last 53/560%
Last 108/1080%
2026 season1/250%
2025 season11/1479%
At home12/2060%
On the road13/1587%
Vs IND2/2100%
As a favorite23/3174%
Short rest7/888%
Prime time10/1377%
Vs soft defenses8/1173%
Books and line movement
BookLineOverUnder
MGM30.5-120-111
DK30.5-124-103
  1. Sep 20, 8:03 PM ET30.5 1
  2. Sep 20, 7:23 PM ET29.5 1
  3. Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET30.5first seen

Completions 19.5

Over -120 · Under +105 · books price the over at 53%
KC vs IND · Sun, Sep 20, 8:20 PM ET · favored by 6.25 · total 46 · wind 6 mph · 6 days rest · final: 32 (over)
IND allows the most completions to QBs (24 a game over its last 17)
Score against
19.5
24 of 35 over69%range 5580%avg 99% of snapsbooks price 53% at 19.5 (-120 MGM)
2024 wk 1 · Sep 5 vs BAL: 20 · 54 snaps (100%)20242024 wk 2 · Sep 15 vs CIN: 18 · 65 snaps (100%)2024 wk 3 · Sep 22 at ATL: 26 · 74 snaps (100%)2024 wk 4 · Sep 29 at LAC: 19 · 62 snaps (100%)2024 wk 5 · Oct 7 vs NO: 28 · 84 snaps (100%)2024 wk 7 · Oct 20 at SF: 16 · 70 snaps (100%)2024 wk 8 · Oct 27 at LV: 27 · 72 snaps (100%)2024 wk 9 · Nov 4 vs TB: 34 · 85 snaps (100%)2024 wk 10 · Nov 10 vs DEN: 28 · 68 snaps (100%)2024 wk 11 · Nov 17 at BUF: 23 · 55 snaps (100%)2024 wk 12 · Nov 24 at CAR: 27 · 74 snaps (100%)2024 wk 13 · Nov 29 vs LV: 26 · 71 snaps (100%)2024 wk 14 · Dec 8 vs LAC: 24 · 69 snaps (100%)2024 wk 15 · Dec 15 at CLE: 19 · 67 snaps (89%)2024 wk 16 · Dec 21 vs HOU: 28 · 74 snaps (100%)2024 wk 17 · Dec 25 at PIT: 29 · 62 snaps (100%)2024 wk 20 · Jan 18 vs HOU: 16 · 51 snaps (100%)2024 wk 21 · Jan 26 vs BUF: 18 · 66 snaps (100%)2024 wk 22 · Feb 9 at PHI: 21 · 56 snaps (100%)2025 wk 1 · Sep 5 at LAC: 24 · 61 snaps (100%)20252025 wk 2 · Sep 14 vs PHI: 16 · 60 snaps (100%)2025 wk 3 · Sep 21 at NYG: 22 · 72 snaps (100%)2025 wk 4 · Sep 28 vs BAL: 25 · 67 snaps (92%)2025 wk 5 · Oct 6 at JAX: 29 · 64 snaps (100%)2025 wk 6 · Oct 12 vs DET: 22 · 64 snaps (100%)2025 wk 7 · Oct 19 vs LV: 26 · 65 snaps (80%)2025 wk 8 · Oct 27 vs WSH: 25 · 69 snaps (100%)2025 wk 9 · Nov 2 at BUF: 15 · 60 snaps (100%)2025 wk 11 · Nov 16 at DEN: 29 · 70 snaps (100%)2025 wk 12 · Nov 23 vs IND: 29 · 96 snaps (100%)2025 wk 13 · Nov 27 at DAL: 23 · 66 snaps (100%)2025 wk 14 · Dec 7 vs HOU: 14 · 64 snaps (100%)2025 wk 15 · Dec 14 vs LAC: 16 · 56 snaps (92%)2026 wk 1 · Sep 14 vs DEN: 15 · 69 snaps (100%)20262026 wk 2 · Sep 20 vs IND: 32 · closing line 19.5 · 80 snaps (100%)19.5
19.5

Middle half of these games: 18.527.5 · median 24 · range 1434

Projected range · contextmedian 22middle half 182680% range 11.930

How his completions tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share
Mahomes's roleLast 3Last 620262025
Pass attempts a game34.035.837.035.9
Snap share97.3%98.7%100.0%97.4%
DriverKC offenseIND defense faces
Dropbacks per game40.4 #341.4 #1
Pass rate over expected+5.8 #2+2.1 #8
Neutral-script pass rate60.1% #357.6% #3
Dropback success rate46.4% #1248.5% #10
EPA per dropback+0.08 #13+0.10 #11

Last 17 games, ranked against the league (#1 = highest). "Defense faces" is how offenses have played against that defense. Rates over expected compare with how a typical team plays the same downs, distances and scores, shown against the league average. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Throw quality
His passesMahomesLeagueIND defense faces
Catchable-ball rate68.6%68.1%69.8% #14
Interception-worthy throws3.3%3.1%2.4% #26
Completion % under pressure33.5%34.6%35.7% #15
Completion % clean69.7%69.4%70.3% #13
Pressure rate30.5%29.7%29.8% #18
Drops by his receivers6.2%5.5%5.9% #14

His last 15 games and the teams' last 17. "Catchable" is FTN's charting: a defended or inaccurate pass is not catchable, and throwaways and spikes are left out. Pressure and completion under pressure come from nflverse participation, published weeks after the games (so far through 2025 week 22). Dimmed numbers are over fewer than 30 plays. Descriptive, not a forecast. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse (CC BY-SA 4.0).

Each bar is measured against the line shown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 1 of his team's games in this span (Jan 5 at DEN); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

SplitOverRate
Last 52/540%
Last 106/1060%
2026 season1/250%
2025 season10/1471%
At home13/2065%
On the road11/1573%
Vs IND2/2100%
As a favorite22/3171%
Short rest7/888%
Prime time11/1385%
Vs soft defenses9/1182%
Books and line movement
BookLineOverUnder
MGM19.5-120-110
DK19.5-134+105

Steady at 19.5 since Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET.

Rush att 3.5

Over -146 · Under +114 · books price the over at 56%
KC vs IND · Sun, Sep 20, 8:20 PM ET · favored by 6.25 · total 46 · wind 6 mph · 6 days rest · final: 2 (under)
IND allows the 13th-fewest carries to QBs (3.8 a game over its last 17)
Score against
3.5
23 of 35 over66%range 5277%avg 99% of snapsbooks price 56% at 3.5 (-146 DK)
2024 wk 1 · Sep 5 vs BAL: 2 · 54 snaps (100%)20242024 wk 2 · Sep 15 vs CIN: 4 · 65 snaps (100%)2024 wk 3 · Sep 22 at ATL: 6 · 74 snaps (100%)2024 wk 4 · Sep 29 at LAC: 5 · 62 snaps (100%)2024 wk 5 · Oct 7 vs NO: 6 · 84 snaps (100%)2024 wk 7 · Oct 20 at SF: 5 · 70 snaps (100%)2024 wk 8 · Oct 27 at LV: 6 · 72 snaps (100%)2024 wk 9 · Nov 4 vs TB: 2 · 85 snaps (100%)2024 wk 10 · Nov 10 vs DEN: 3 · 68 snaps (100%)2024 wk 11 · Nov 17 at BUF: 0 · 55 snaps (100%)2024 wk 12 · Nov 24 at CAR: 5 · 74 snaps (100%)2024 wk 13 · Nov 29 vs LV: 2 · 71 snaps (100%)2024 wk 14 · Dec 8 vs LAC: 4 · 69 snaps (100%)2024 wk 15 · Dec 15 at CLE: 2 · 67 snaps (89%)2024 wk 16 · Dec 21 vs HOU: 5 · 74 snaps (100%)2024 wk 17 · Dec 25 at PIT: 1 · 62 snaps (100%)2024 wk 20 · Jan 18 vs HOU: 7 · 51 snaps (100%)2024 wk 21 · Jan 26 vs BUF: 11 · 66 snaps (100%)2024 wk 22 · Feb 9 at PHI: 4 · 56 snaps (100%)2025 wk 1 · Sep 5 at LAC: 6 · 61 snaps (100%)20252025 wk 2 · Sep 14 vs PHI: 7 · 60 snaps (100%)2025 wk 3 · Sep 21 at NYG: 5 · 72 snaps (100%)2025 wk 4 · Sep 28 vs BAL: 4 · 67 snaps (92%)2025 wk 5 · Oct 6 at JAX: 6 · 64 snaps (100%)2025 wk 6 · Oct 12 vs DET: 10 · 64 snaps (100%)2025 wk 7 · Oct 19 vs LV: 4 · 65 snaps (80%)2025 wk 8 · Oct 27 vs WSH: 4 · 69 snaps (100%)2025 wk 9 · Nov 2 at BUF: 1 · 60 snaps (100%)2025 wk 11 · Nov 16 at DEN: 1 · 70 snaps (100%)2025 wk 12 · Nov 23 vs IND: 4 · 96 snaps (100%)2025 wk 13 · Nov 27 at DAL: 3 · 66 snaps (100%)2025 wk 14 · Dec 7 vs HOU: 7 · 64 snaps (100%)2025 wk 15 · Dec 14 vs LAC: 2 · 56 snaps (92%)2026 wk 1 · Sep 14 vs DEN: 7 · 69 snaps (100%)20262026 wk 2 · Sep 20 vs IND: 2 · closing line 3.5 · 80 snaps (100%)3.5
3.5

Middle half of these games: 26 · median 4 · range 011

Volume drivers and his share
Mahomes's roleLast 3Last 620262025
Carry share12.6%13.9%13.6%17.2%
Carries a game3.74.24.54.6
Snap share97.3%98.7%100.0%97.4%
DriverKC offenseIND defense faces
Rushes per game22.8 #2425.5 #11
Rush rate over expected−5.8 #31−2.1 #25
Early-down rush rate39.7% #2941.6% #28

Last 17 games, ranked against the league (#1 = highest). "Defense faces" is how offenses have played against that defense. Rates over expected compare with how a typical team plays the same downs, distances and scores, shown against the league average. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Each bar is measured against the line shown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 1 of his team's games in this span (Jan 5 at DEN); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

SplitOverRate
Last 52/540%
Last 105/1050%
2026 season1/250%
2025 season10/1471%
At home14/2070%
On the road9/1560%
Vs IND1/250%
As a favorite20/3165%
Short rest2/825%
Prime time10/1377%
Vs middling defenses9/1656%
Books and line movement
BookLineOverUnder
DK3.5-146+114

Steady at 3.5 since Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET.

Anytime TD

Yes +340 · books price yes at 23%
KC vs IND · Sun, Sep 20, 8:20 PM ET · favored by 6.25 · total 46 · wind 6 mph · 6 days rest · final: 0 (no)
Score against
9 of 35 scored26%range 1639%avg 99% of snapsbooks price 23%
2024 wk 1 · Sep 5 vs BAL: 0 · 54 snaps (100%)20242024 wk 2 · Sep 15 vs CIN: 0 · 65 snaps (100%)2024 wk 3 · Sep 22 at ATL: 0 · 74 snaps (100%)2024 wk 4 · Sep 29 at LAC: 0 · 62 snaps (100%)2024 wk 5 · Oct 7 vs NO: 0 · 84 snaps (100%)2024 wk 7 · Oct 20 at SF: 1 · 70 snaps (100%)2024 wk 8 · Oct 27 at LV: 0 · 72 snaps (100%)2024 wk 9 · Nov 4 vs TB: 0 · 85 snaps (100%)2024 wk 10 · Nov 10 vs DEN: 0 · 68 snaps (100%)2024 wk 11 · Nov 17 at BUF: 0 · 55 snaps (100%)2024 wk 12 · Nov 24 at CAR: 0 · 74 snaps (100%)2024 wk 13 · Nov 29 vs LV: 0 · 71 snaps (100%)2024 wk 14 · Dec 8 vs LAC: 0 · 69 snaps (100%)2024 wk 15 · Dec 15 at CLE: 0 · 67 snaps (89%)2024 wk 16 · Dec 21 vs HOU: 1 · 74 snaps (100%)2024 wk 17 · Dec 25 at PIT: 0 · 62 snaps (100%)2024 wk 20 · Jan 18 vs HOU: 0 · 51 snaps (100%)2024 wk 21 · Jan 26 vs BUF: 1 · 66 snaps (100%)2024 wk 22 · Feb 9 at PHI: 0 · 56 snaps (100%)2025 wk 1 · Sep 5 at LAC: 1 · 61 snaps (100%)20252025 wk 2 · Sep 14 vs PHI: 1 · 60 snaps (100%)2025 wk 3 · Sep 21 at NYG: 0 · 72 snaps (100%)2025 wk 4 · Sep 28 vs BAL: 0 · 67 snaps (92%)2025 wk 5 · Oct 6 at JAX: 1 · 64 snaps (100%)2025 wk 6 · Oct 12 vs DET: 1 · 64 snaps (100%)2025 wk 7 · Oct 19 vs LV: 0 · 65 snaps (80%)2025 wk 8 · Oct 27 vs WSH: 0 · 69 snaps (100%)2025 wk 9 · Nov 2 at BUF: 0 · 60 snaps (100%)2025 wk 11 · Nov 16 at DEN: 0 · 70 snaps (100%)2025 wk 12 · Nov 23 vs IND: 0 · 96 snaps (100%)2025 wk 13 · Nov 27 at DAL: 0 · 66 snaps (100%)2025 wk 14 · Dec 7 vs HOU: 0 · 64 snaps (100%)2025 wk 15 · Dec 14 vs LAC: 1 · 56 snaps (92%)2026 wk 1 · Sep 14 vs DEN: 1 · 69 snaps (100%)20262026 wk 2 · Sep 20 vs IND: 0 · 80 snaps (100%)
Volume drivers and his share
Mahomes's roleLast 3Last 620262025
Touch share5.9%6.8%6.7%7.6%
Touches a game3.74.34.54.6
Snap share97.3%98.7%100.0%97.4%

Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Each bar is measured against a touchdown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 1 of his team's games in this span (Jan 5 at DEN); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

SplitScoredRate
Last 52/540%
Last 102/1020%
2026 season1/250%
2025 season5/1436%
At home6/2030%
On the road3/1520%
Vs IND0/20%
As a favorite7/3123%
Short rest2/825%
Prime time4/1331%
Books and line movement
BookLineYes
MGM+340
DK+320
FD+330

We have not seen a line for this yet.

Routes

Routes and coverage

2024–25 seasons · 1 targets with a route label
RouteShareTgtCatchYds/tgtEPA/tgt
Shallow cross
1100%2.0(6.5)−0.40

Against man and zone

DefenseTgtCatchYds/tgtEPA/tgt
Zone1100%2.0−0.40

Routes are the ones the player was targetedon: nflverse labels the targeted receiver's route on about nine in ten targets, and routes run without a throw are not public, so this shows where a player's looks come from, not everything he ran. Yards per target in brackets is the league figure for that route. Rows with few targets are dimmed; small samples swing.

Game log

GameResultC/APass ydsTDINTCarRush ydsRush TDSnap %
2026 W2 vs INDSep 20W 333032/47382302170100%
2026 W1 vs DENSep 14W 311015/27184217231100%
2025 W15 vs LACDec 14L 131616/2818901215192%
2025 W14 vs HOUDec 7L 102014/33160037590100%
2025 W13 @ DALNov 27L 283123/34261403300100%
2025 W12 vs INDNov 23W 232029/46352014300100%
2025 W11 @ DENNov 16L 192229/4527611130100%
2025 W9 @ BUFNov 2L 212815/3425001150100%
2025 W8 vs WSHOct 27W 28725/34299324300100%
2025 W7 vs LVOct 19W 31026/3528630428080%
2025 W6 vs DETOct 12W 301722/302573010321100%
2025 W5 @ JAXOct 6L 283129/41318116601100%
2025 W4 vs BALSep 28W 372025/372704045092%
2025 W3 @ NYGSep 21W 22922/3722410520100%
2025 W2 vs PHISep 14L 172016/29187117661100%
2025 W1 @ LACSep 5L 212724/39258106571100%

Prop lines come from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM through TheRundown and can lag what a book shows right now — check the book before you rely on a number. Splits count the games he played (snap counts show who was on the field) and describe the past; they are not a prediction. A game he played with no stat line counts as a zero; a game he sat out is left out, because books void the prop then. Stats and route labels from nflverse. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.