NFL · Props

George Kittle

TE · San Francisco 49ers

Rec/g: 3.0
Rec yds/g: 46.0
Targets/g: 4.5
2026 games: 2

Props this week

Rec yds 40.5

Over -111 · Under -111 · books price the over at 50%

SF vs MIA · Sun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET · favored by 13 · total 45 · wind 7 mph · 10 days rest · final: 80 (over)

MIA allows the 4th-most receiving yards to TEs (65 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

Score against

What if the line were40.5

20 of 29 over69%range 54–81%avg 80% of snapsbooks price 50% at 40.5 (-111 MGM)

Middle half of these games: 32–84 · median 64 · range 0–151

Projected range · contextmedian 52middle half 31–7980% range 16.7–104

How his rec yds tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share

Kittle's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Target share	13.1%	20.3%	16.7%	20.4%
Targets a game	3.7	5.8	4.5	5.9
Snap share	38.7%	61.5%	47.0%	76.3%

Driver	SF offense	MIA defense faces
Dropbacks per game	35.1 #20	34.4 #22
Pass rate over expected	+2.4 #9	−0.4 #21
Neutral-script pass rate	57.6% #7	54.3% #19
Dropback success rate	52.6% #1	52.4% #1

Last 17 games, ranked against the league (#1 = highest). "Defense faces" is how offenses have played against that defense. Rates over expected compare with how a typical team plays the same downs, distances and scores, shown against the league average. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Throw quality

Passes to him	Kittle	League	SF offense	MIA defense faces
Catchable-target rate	85.5%	68.1%	74.8% #1	73.4% #3
Drop rate	4.6%	5.5%	4.9% #23	3.7% #30
Contested-target rate	15.8%	13.0%	14.0% #14	11.7% #23
Pressure on his QB	—	29.7%	24.8% #30	27.2% #24

His last 14 games and the teams' last 17. "Catchable" is FTN's charting: a defended or inaccurate pass is not catchable, and throwaways and spikes are left out. Pressure and completion under pressure come from nflverse participation, published weeks after the games (so far through 2025 week 22). Dimmed numbers are over fewer than 30 plays. Descriptive, not a forecast. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse (CC BY-SA 4.0).

Market curve vs his games

● books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · ● his games over that number

Number	Best over	Books price	His games
main	-113 FD	50%	72% (21/29)
main	-111 MGM	50%	69% (20/29)

* A one-sided price includes the book's margin, which is larger on far alternates, so the probability reads a little high. Numbers a book has not refreshed in a while, and old main lines it has moved off, are left out.

Each bar is measured against the line shown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 8 of his team's games in this span (Dec 28 vs CHI, Oct 12 at TB, Oct 2 at LAR, Sep 28 vs JAX, …); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	2/5	40%	48.4	29
Last 10	7/10	70%	62.6	72.5
2026 season	1/2	50%	46.0	46
2025 season	7/12	58%	52.8	55
At home	11/14	79%	75.1	79
On the road	9/15	60%	52.0	57
Vs MIA	2/2	100%	93.0	93
As a favorite	16/20	80%	71.5	67
Long rest	5/5	100%	84.6	88
With Brock Purdy	17/23	74%	68.0	67
Vs soft defenses	7/8	88%	76.4	81
With Demarcus Robinson	8/13	62%	53.9	67

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Over	Under
MGM	40.5	-111	-118
DK	40.5	-113	-111
FD	39.5	-113	-113

Steady at 40.5 since Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET.

Receptions 3.5

Over -122 · Under +109 · books price the over at 53%

SF vs MIA · Sun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET · favored by 13 · total 45 · wind 7 mph · 10 days rest · final: 4 (over)

MIA allows the 3rd-most receptions to TEs (6.3 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

Score against

What if the line were3.5

23 of 29 over79%range 65–89%avg 80% of snapsbooks price 53% at 3.5 (-122 FD)

Middle half of these games: 4–6 · median 5 · range 0–9

Projected range · contextmedian 3.6middle half 2.2–5.580% range 1.1–7.2

How his receptions tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share

Kittle's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Target share	13.1%	20.3%	16.7%	20.4%
Targets a game	3.7	5.8	4.5	5.9
Snap share	38.7%	61.5%	47.0%	76.3%

Driver	SF offense	MIA defense faces
Dropbacks per game	35.1 #20	34.4 #22
Pass rate over expected	+2.4 #9	−0.4 #21
Neutral-script pass rate	57.6% #7	54.3% #19
Dropback success rate	52.6% #1	52.4% #1

Throw quality

Passes to him	Kittle	League	SF offense	MIA defense faces
Catchable-target rate	85.5%	68.1%	74.8% #1	73.4% #3
Drop rate	4.6%	5.5%	4.9% #23	3.7% #30
Contested-target rate	15.8%	13.0%	14.0% #14	11.7% #23
Pressure on his QB	—	29.7%	24.8% #30	27.2% #24

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	3/5	60%	3.8	4
Last 10	8/10	80%	5.2	5.5
2026 season	1/2	50%	3.0	3
2025 season	10/12	83%	4.8	4.5
At home	13/14	93%	5.6	6
On the road	10/15	67%	4.3	4
Vs MIA	2/2	100%	6.0	6
As a favorite	18/20	90%	5.2	5.5
Long rest	4/5	80%	5.8	6
With Brock Purdy	19/23	83%	5.1	5
Vs soft defenses	7/9	78%	5.3	5
With Demarcus Robinson	10/13	77%	4.6	4

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Over	Under
MGM	3.5	-130	-105
DK	3.5	-139	+109
FD	3.5	-122	-108

Steady at 3.5 since Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET.

Anytime TD

Yes +190 · books price yes at 35%

SF vs MIA · Sun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET · favored by 13 · total 45 · wind 7 mph · 10 days rest · final: 1 (yes)

Teammate

Score against

14 of 29 scored48%range 34–63%avg 80% of snapsbooks price 35%

Volume drivers and his share

Kittle's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Touch share	6.6%	10.4%	8.1%	10.4%
Touches a game	3.7	5.8	4.5	6.0
Snap share	38.7%	61.5%	47.0%	76.3%

Each bar is measured against a touchdown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 8 of his team's games in this span (Dec 28 vs CHI, Oct 12 at TB, Oct 2 at LAR, Sep 28 vs JAX, …); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

Split	Scored	Rate	TDs/game
Last 5	2/5	40%	0.40
Last 10	5/10	50%	0.50
2026 season	1/2	50%	0.50
2025 season	6/12	50%	0.50
At home	6/14	43%	0.43
On the road	8/15	53%	0.53
Vs MIA	1/2	50%	0.50
As a favorite	11/20	55%	0.55
Long rest	3/5	60%	0.60
With Brock Purdy	11/23	48%	0.48
With Demarcus Robinson	6/13	46%	0.46

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Yes
MGM	—	+175
DK	—	+190
FD	—	+185

We have not seen a line for this yet.

Routes

Routes and coverage

2024–25 seasons · 164 targets with a route label

Weighted by where George Kittle's targets come from, MIA has allowed 0.11 yds/target more than the league average on those routes. They play man on 34% of dropbacks (league 40%).

A description of how MIA's defense has fared, not a projection. Each defense number is pulled toward the league average in proportion to how few targets it rests on.

Route	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt	MIA allow
Quick out	34	85%	6.7(5.5)	+0.31	5.8
In / dig	19	63%	6.8(9.6)	+0.41	10.1
Hitch / curl	16	94%	11.3(6.8)	+0.75	7.3
Corner	16	75%	15.4(10.4)	+0.97	9.6
Deep out	16	75%	10.8(8.0)	+1.05	8.0
Shallow cross	15	87%	8.0(6.5)	+0.18	6.9
Screen	14	93%	10.2(5.8)	+0.52	5.8
Post	14	93%	16.4(12.3)	+1.61	11.7
Slant	9	100%	15.4(7.2)	+1.27	6.7
Go	6	67%	16.0(9.9)	+1.23	10.7
Swing	3	100%	4.7(5.3)	−0.30	5.8
Wheel	2	50%	20.5(10.2)	+0.82	9.8

Against man and zone

Defense	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt
Zone	97	87%	11.1	+0.75
Man	66	77%	9.6	+0.61

Against each coverage

Defense	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt
Cover 3	43	84%	10.9	+0.74
Cover 1	43	72%	11.5	+0.54
Cover 2	35	97%	11.6	+0.90
2-man	14	86%	6.6	+0.76
Cover 0	9	89%	5.3	+0.73
Cover 4	8	75%	9.5	+0.56
Cover 6	8	88%	12.5	+0.81
Cover 9	1	0%	0.0	−0.51

Routes are the ones the player was targetedon: nflverse labels the targeted receiver's route on about nine in ten targets, and routes run without a throw are not public, so this shows where a player's looks come from, not everything he ran. Yards per target in brackets is the league figure for that route. Rows with few targets are dimmed; small samples swing.

Game log

Game	Result	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Rec TD	Snap %
2026 W2 vs MIASep 20	W 35–13	4	4	80	1	48%
2026 W1 @ LARSep 10	W 27–7	5	2	12	0	46%
2025 W19 · playoffs @ PHIJan 11	W 23–19	2	1	6	0	22%
2025 W18 vs SEAJan 3	L 3–13	7	5	29	0	95%
2025 W16 @ INDDec 22	W 48–27	8	7	115	1	62%
2025 W15 vs TENDec 14	W 37–24	9	8	88	1	96%
2025 W13 @ CLENov 30	W 26–8	5	4	67	0	87%
2025 W12 vs CARNov 24	W 20–9	10	6	78	0	91%
2025 W11 @ ARINov 16	W 41–22	6	6	67	2	87%
2025 W10 vs LARNov 9	L 26–42	9	9	84	1	90%
2025 W9 @ NYGNov 2	W 34–24	4	4	32	0	86%
2025 W8 @ HOUOct 26	L 15–26	5	4	43	1	90%
2025 W7 vs ATLOct 19	W 20–10	2	0	0	0	81%
2025 W1 @ SEASep 7	W 17–13	4	4	25	1	28%

Prop lines come from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM through TheRundown and can lag what a book shows right now — check the book before you rely on a number. Splits count the games he played (snap counts show who was on the field) and describe the past; they are not a prediction. A game he played with no stat line counts as a zero; a game he sat out is left out, because books void the prop then. Stats and route labels from nflverse. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.