NFL · Props

Tyler Higbee

TE · Los Angeles Rams

Rec/g: 2.0
Rec yds/g: 12.0
Targets/g: 2.0
2026 games: 1

Props this week

Rec yds 14.5

Over -110 · Under -113 · books price the over at 50% · moved 13.5 → 14.5

LAR vs NYG · Mon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET · favored by 7 · total 47.5 · wind 9 mph · 11 days rest

NYG allows the 11th-fewest receiving yards to TEs (48 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

What if the line were14.5

12 of 19 over63%range 44–79%avg 45% of snapsbooks price 50% at 14.5 (-110 DK)

Middle half of these games: 12–42.5 · median 25 · range 0–91

Projected range · contextmedian 21middle half 7.7–4280% range 0–65

How his rec yds tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share

Higbee's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Target share	5.0%	7.7%	7.4%	9.6%
Targets a game	1.7	2.7	2.0	3.2
Snap share	16.7%	34.0%	20.0%	48.9%

Driver	LAR offense	NYG defense faces
Dropbacks per game	37.4 #11	36.5 #14
Pass rate over expected	+4.6 #3	+0.1 #17
Neutral-script pass rate	59.2% #6	56.1% #8
Dropback success rate	52.0% #2	45.8% #17

Last 17 games, ranked against the league (#1 = highest). "Defense faces" is how offenses have played against that defense. Rates over expected compare with how a typical team plays the same downs, distances and scores, shown against the league average. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.

Throw quality

Passes to him	Higbee	League	LAR offense	NYG defense faces
Catchable-target rate	75.0%	68.1%	69.4% #7	71.9% #8
Drop rate	6.1%	5.5%	5.5% #15	8.0% #2
Contested-target rate	29.5%	13.0%	15.3% #6	14.7% #8
Pressure on his QB	—	29.7%	22.4% #31	29.8% #19

His last 13 games and the teams' last 17. "Catchable" is FTN's charting: a defended or inaccurate pass is not catchable, and throwaways and spikes are left out. Pressure and completion under pressure come from nflverse participation, published weeks after the games (so far through 2025 week 22). Dimmed numbers are over fewer than 30 plays. Descriptive, not a forecast. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse (CC BY-SA 4.0).

Market curve vs his games

● books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · ● his games over that number

Number	Best over	Books price	His games
	-205 FD	67%*	84% (16/19)
main	-115 MGM	50%	63% (12/19)
main	-110 DK	50%	63% (12/19)
	+200 FD	34%*	53% (10/19)
	+290 FD	26%*	42% (8/19)
	+880 FD	11%*	16% (3/19)
	+1650 MGM	6%*	5% (1/19)
	+2000 MGM	5%*	0% (0/19)
	+2000 MGM	5%*	0% (0/19)

* A one-sided price includes the book's margin, which is larger on far alternates, so the probability reads a little high. Numbers a book has not refreshed in a while, and old main lines it has moved off, are left out.

Each bar is measured against the line shown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 7 of his team's games in this span (Dec 29 at ATL, Dec 18 at SEA, Dec 14 vs DET, Dec 7 at ARI, …); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	3/5	60%	37.4	27
Last 10	7/10	70%	31.5	25
2026 season	0/1	0%	12.0	12
2025 season	9/13	69%	28.1	25
At home	5/9	56%	30.8	23
On the road	7/10	70%	27.8	30
As a favorite	9/14	64%	27.5	24
Long rest	1/3	33%	21.3	13
Prime time	1/3	33%	26.3	12
With Matthew Stafford	11/18	61%	28.3	24
Vs tough defenses	4/6	67%	28.8	35
Without Puka Nacua (Questionable)	2/2	100%	32.5	32.5
With Puka Nacua	10/17	59%	28.8	25
Without Jordan Whittington (Doubtful)	2/2	100%	68.0	68
With Jordan Whittington	10/17	59%	24.6	23

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Over	Under
MGM	13.5	-115	-115
DK	14.5	-110	-114
FD	14.5	-113	-113

Sep 21, 1:43 AM ET14.5▲ 1
Sep 20, 7:33 PM ET13.5▼ 1
Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET14.5first seen

Receptions 1.5

Over -105 · Under -102 · books price the over at 50%

LAR vs NYG · Mon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET · favored by 7 · total 47.5 · wind 9 mph · 11 days rest

NYG allows the 12th-fewest receptions to TEs (4.9 a game over its last 17)

Teammate

What if the line were1.5

13 of 19 over68%range 50–83%avg 45% of snapsbooks price 50% at 1.5 (-105 MGM)

Middle half of these games: 1–4 · median 2 · range 0–7

Projected range · contextmedian 1.9middle half 0.9–3.480% range 0–4.6

How his receptions tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.

Volume drivers and his share

Higbee's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Target share	5.0%	7.7%	7.4%	9.6%
Targets a game	1.7	2.7	2.0	3.2
Snap share	16.7%	34.0%	20.0%	48.9%

Driver	LAR offense	NYG defense faces
Dropbacks per game	37.4 #11	36.5 #14
Pass rate over expected	+4.6 #3	+0.1 #17
Neutral-script pass rate	59.2% #6	56.1% #8
Dropback success rate	52.0% #2	45.8% #17

Throw quality

Passes to him	Higbee	League	LAR offense	NYG defense faces
Catchable-target rate	75.0%	68.1%	69.4% #7	71.9% #8
Drop rate	6.1%	5.5%	5.5% #15	8.0% #2
Contested-target rate	29.5%	13.0%	15.3% #6	14.7% #8
Pressure on his QB	—	29.7%	22.4% #31	29.8% #19

Market curve vs his games

● books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · ● his games over that number

Number	Best over	Books price	His games
	-650 FD	87%*	89% (17/19)
main	-105 MGM	50%	68% (13/19)
	+225 FD	31%*	47% (9/19)
	+580 FD	15%*	32% (6/19)

Split	Over	Rate	Avg	Med
Last 5	3/5	60%	2.2	2
Last 10	7/10	70%	2.5	2.5
2026 season	1/1	100%	2.0	2
2025 season	8/13	62%	2.2	2
At home	7/9	78%	2.8	2
On the road	6/10	60%	2.6	2.5
As a favorite	10/14	71%	2.4	2
Long rest	2/3	67%	2.7	3
Prime time	3/3	100%	3.0	2
With Matthew Stafford	12/18	67%	2.6	2
Vs middling defenses	6/9	67%	2.6	2
Without Puka Nacua (Questionable)	2/2	100%	4.0	4
With Puka Nacua	11/17	65%	2.5	2
Without Jordan Whittington (Doubtful)	2/2	100%	3.5	3.5
With Jordan Whittington	11/17	65%	2.6	2

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Over	Under
MGM	1.5	-105	-125
DK	1.5	-113	-113
FD	1.5	-130	-102

Steady at 1.5 since Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET.

Anytime TD

Yes +500 · books price yes at 18%

LAR vs NYG · Mon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET · favored by 7 · total 47.5 · wind 9 mph · 11 days rest

Teammate

6 of 19 scored32%range 17–50%avg 45% of snapsbooks price 18%

Volume drivers and his share

Higbee's role	Last 3	Last 6	2026	2025
Touch share	2.7%	4.3%	3.6%	5.2%
Touches a game	1.7	2.7	2.0	3.2
Snap share	16.7%	34.0%	20.0%	48.9%

Each bar is measured against a touchdown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 7 of his team's games in this span (Dec 29 at ATL, Dec 18 at SEA, Dec 14 vs DET, Dec 7 at ARI, …); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.

Split	Scored	Rate	TDs/game
Last 5	1/5	20%	0.20
Last 10	3/10	30%	0.30
2026 season	0/1	0%	0.00
2025 season	3/13	23%	0.23
At home	3/9	33%	0.33
On the road	3/10	30%	0.30
As a favorite	4/14	29%	0.29
Long rest	3/3	100%	1.00
Prime time	0/3	0%	0.00
With Matthew Stafford	5/18	28%	0.28
Without Puka Nacua (Questionable)	1/2	50%	0.50
With Puka Nacua	5/17	29%	0.29
Without Jordan Whittington (Doubtful)	1/2	50%	0.50
With Jordan Whittington	5/17	29%	0.29

Books and line movement

Book	Line	Yes
MGM	—	+500
DK	—	+425
FD	—	+480

We have not seen a line for this yet.

Routes

Routes and coverage

2024–25 seasons · 69 targets with a route label

Weighted by where Tyler Higbee's targets come from, NYG has allowed 0.15 yds/target more than the league average on those routes. They play man on 45% of dropbacks (league 40%).

A description of how NYG's defense has fared, not a projection. Each defense number is pulled toward the league average in proportion to how few targets it rests on.

Route	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt	NYG allow
Quick out	22	77%	6.2(5.5)	+0.32	5.1
Hitch / curl	9	67%	3.1(6.8)	+0.01	6.7
Screen	9	89%	9.7(5.8)	+0.21	6.1
Slant	7	71%	7.7(7.2)	+0.04	6.8
Corner	5	60%	9.4(10.4)	+0.88	13.1
Go	4	100%	23.0(9.9)	+1.81	10.8
In / dig	3	100%	11.3(9.6)	+1.31	9.4
Wheel	3	33%	9.0(10.2)	+0.11	10.8
Deep out	2	100%	19.0(8.0)	+1.04	8.3
Post	2	0%	0.0(12.3)	−0.85	12.2
Shallow cross	2	0%	0.0(6.5)	−1.57	6.2
Texas / angle	1	0%	0.0(6.5)	−1.34	6.6

Against man and zone

Defense	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt
Zone	43	79%	9.8	+0.53
Man	26	58%	4.7	−0.07

Against each coverage

Defense	Tgt	Catch	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt
Cover 1	18	50%	4.9	−0.07
Cover 2	14	93%	10.6	+0.65
Cover 3	12	67%	8.1	+0.01
Cover 4	11	73%	11.4	+0.96
Cover 0	6	83%	3.8	+0.15
Cover 6	5	80%	8.8	+0.56
2-man	2	50%	4.5	−0.76
Cover 9	1	100%	7.0	+0.38

Routes are the ones the player was targetedon: nflverse labels the targeted receiver's route on about nine in ten targets, and routes run without a throw are not public, so this shows where a player's looks come from, not everything he ran. Yards per target in brackets is the league figure for that route. Rows with few targets are dimmed; small samples swing.

Game log

Game	Result	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Rec TD	Snap %
2026 W1 vs SFSep 10	L 7–27	2	2	12	0	20%
2025 W21 · playoffs @ SEAJan 25	L 27–31	1	1	12	0	20%
2025 W20 · playoffs @ CHIJan 18	W 20–17	2	1	27	0	10%
2025 W19 · playoffs @ CARJan 10	W 34–31	3	2	45	0	51%
2025 W18 vs ARIJan 4	W 37–20	6	5	91	1	64%
2025 W11 vs SEANov 16	W 21–19	2	1	23	0	39%
2025 W10 @ SFNov 9	W 42–26	3	3	33	0	54%
2025 W9 vs NONov 2	W 34–10	4	3	13	1	52%
2025 W7 @ JAXOct 19	W 35–7	6	3	19	0	37%
2025 W6 @ BALOct 12	W 17–3	4	4	40	1	66%
2025 W4 vs INDSep 28	W 27–20	5	2	25	0	55%
2025 W3 @ PHISep 21	L 26–33	2	0	0	0	55%
2025 W2 @ TENSep 14	W 33–19	4	4	37	0	75%
2025 W1 vs HOUSep 7	W 14–9	0	0	0	0	58%

Prop lines come from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM through TheRundown and can lag what a book shows right now — check the book before you rely on a number. Splits count the games he played (snap counts show who was on the field) and describe the past; they are not a prediction. A game he played with no stat line counts as a zero; a game he sat out is left out, because books void the prop then. Stats and route labels from nflverse. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.