Props this week
Rec yds 41.5
Middle half of these games: 30–70.8 · median 51 · range 5–117
How his rec yds tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.
Volume drivers and his share
| Kelce's role | Last 3 | Last 6 | 2026 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target share | 22.4% | 24.1% | 23.5% | 19.7% |
| Targets a game | 7.3 | 6.8 | 8.0 | 6.4 |
| Snap share | 78.7% | 85.0% | 78.0% | 81.9% |
| Driver | KC offense | IND defense faces |
|---|---|---|
| Dropbacks per game | 40.4 #3 | 41.4 #1 |
| Pass rate over expected | +5.8 #2 | +2.1 #8 |
| Neutral-script pass rate | 60.1% #3 | 57.6% #3 |
| Dropback success rate | 46.4% #12 | 48.5% #10 |
Last 17 games, ranked against the league (#1 = highest). "Defense faces" is how offenses have played against that defense. Rates over expected compare with how a typical team plays the same downs, distances and scores, shown against the league average. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Throw quality
| Passes to him | Kelce | League | KC offense | IND defense faces |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Catchable-target rate | 76.4% | 68.1% | 67.5% #20 | 69.8% #14 |
| Drop rate | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% #10 | 5.9% #14 |
| Contested-target rate | 8.2% | 13.0% | 6.6% #32 | 12.9% #14 |
| Pressure on his QB | — | 29.7% | 30.5% #12 | 29.8% #18 |
His last 17 games and the teams' last 17. "Catchable" is FTN's charting: a defended or inaccurate pass is not catchable, and throwaways and spikes are left out. Pressure and completion under pressure come from nflverse participation, published weeks after the games (so far through 2025 week 22). Dimmed numbers are over fewer than 30 plays. Descriptive, not a forecast. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Market curve vs his games
● books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · ● his games over that number
| Number | Best over | Books price | His games |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1000 FD | 91%* | 87% (33/38) | |
| -550 FD | 85%* | 82% (31/38) | |
| -350 FD | 78%* | 82% (31/38) | |
| -245 FD | 71%* | 76% (29/38) | |
| -130 FD | 57%* | 63% (24/38) | |
| main | -113 FD | 50% | 63% (24/38) |
| main | -111 DK | 50% | 63% (24/38) |
| +134 FD | 44%* | 50% (19/38) | |
| +225 FD | 31%* | 47% (18/38) | |
| +350 FD | 22%* | 32% (12/38) | |
| +375 MGM | 21%* | 24% (9/38) | |
| +520 FD | 16%* | 21% (8/38) | |
| +750 FD | 12%* | 16% (6/38) | |
| +1000 FD | 10%* | 8% (3/38) | |
| +1400 FD | 7%* | 3% (1/38) | |
| +1550 MGM | 6%* | 0% (0/38) |
* A one-sided price includes the book's margin, which is larger on far alternates, so the probability reads a little high. Numbers a book has not refreshed in a while, and old main lines it has moved off, are left out.
Each bar is measured against the line shown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 1 of his team's games in this span (Jan 5 at DEN); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.
| Split | Over | Rate | Avg | Med |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 | 2/5 | 40% | 45.2 | 36 |
| Last 10 | 6/10 | 60% | 48.3 | 44 |
| 2026 season | 2/2 | 100% | 86.0 | 86 |
| 2025 season | 12/17 | 71% | 50.1 | 48 |
| At home | 15/21 | 71% | 58.1 | 61 |
| On the road | 9/17 | 53% | 47.1 | 45 |
| Vs IND | 2/2 | 100% | 72.0 | 72 |
| As a favorite | 22/33 | 67% | 56.1 | 61 |
| Short rest | 7/9 | 78% | 63.6 | 66 |
| Prime time | 9/14 | 64% | 57.6 | 54 |
| With Patrick Mahomes | 24/35 | 69% | 56.2 | 61 |
| Vs soft defenses | 9/14 | 64% | 53.7 | 57.5 |
Books and line movement
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| MGM | 41.5 | -115 | -115 |
| DK | 42.5 | -111 | -113 |
| FD | 41.5 | -113 | -113 |
Steady at 41.5 since Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET.
Receptions 3.5
Middle half of these games: 3.3–7 · median 5 · range 1–14
How his receptions tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.
Volume drivers and his share
| Kelce's role | Last 3 | Last 6 | 2026 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target share | 22.4% | 24.1% | 23.5% | 19.7% |
| Targets a game | 7.3 | 6.8 | 8.0 | 6.4 |
| Snap share | 78.7% | 85.0% | 78.0% | 81.9% |
| Driver | KC offense | IND defense faces |
|---|---|---|
| Dropbacks per game | 40.4 #3 | 41.4 #1 |
| Pass rate over expected | +5.8 #2 | +2.1 #8 |
| Neutral-script pass rate | 60.1% #3 | 57.6% #3 |
| Dropback success rate | 46.4% #12 | 48.5% #10 |
Last 17 games, ranked against the league (#1 = highest). "Defense faces" is how offenses have played against that defense. Rates over expected compare with how a typical team plays the same downs, distances and scores, shown against the league average. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Throw quality
| Passes to him | Kelce | League | KC offense | IND defense faces |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Catchable-target rate | 76.4% | 68.1% | 67.5% #20 | 69.8% #14 |
| Drop rate | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% #10 | 5.9% #14 |
| Contested-target rate | 8.2% | 13.0% | 6.6% #32 | 12.9% #14 |
| Pressure on his QB | — | 29.7% | 30.5% #12 | 29.8% #18 |
His last 17 games and the teams' last 17. "Catchable" is FTN's charting: a defended or inaccurate pass is not catchable, and throwaways and spikes are left out. Pressure and completion under pressure come from nflverse participation, published weeks after the games (so far through 2025 week 22). Dimmed numbers are over fewer than 30 plays. Descriptive, not a forecast. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Market curve vs his games
● books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · ● his games over that number
| Number | Best over | Books price | His games |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1450 FD | 94%* | 92% (35/38) | |
| -400 FD | 80%* | 84% (32/38) | |
| main | -144 DK | 56% | 74% (28/38) |
| +136 FD | 42%* | 53% (20/38) | |
| +270 FD | 27%* | 39% (15/38) | |
| +520 FD | 16%* | 32% (12/38) | |
| +1280 FD | 7%* | 13% (5/38) |
* A one-sided price includes the book's margin, which is larger on far alternates, so the probability reads a little high. Numbers a book has not refreshed in a while, and old main lines it has moved off, are left out.
Each bar is measured against the line shown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 1 of his team's games in this span (Jan 5 at DEN); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.
| Split | Over | Rate | Avg | Med |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 | 2/5 | 40% | 4.2 | 3 |
| Last 10 | 6/10 | 60% | 4.7 | 4.5 |
| 2026 season | 1/2 | 50% | 6.0 | 6 |
| 2025 season | 12/17 | 71% | 4.5 | 4 |
| At home | 15/21 | 71% | 5.4 | 5 |
| On the road | 13/17 | 76% | 4.9 | 4 |
| Vs IND | 2/2 | 100% | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| As a favorite | 24/33 | 73% | 5.4 | 5 |
| Short rest | 9/9 | 100% | 6.3 | 6 |
| Prime time | 10/14 | 71% | 5.6 | 5 |
| With Patrick Mahomes | 27/35 | 77% | 5.4 | 5 |
| Vs soft defenses | 8/12 | 67% | 5.5 | 4 |
Books and line movement
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| MGM | 3.5 | -150 | +110 |
| DK | 3.5 | -144 | +113 |
| FD | 3.5 | — | +116 |
Steady at 3.5 since Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET.
Anytime TD
Volume drivers and his share
| Kelce's role | Last 3 | Last 6 | 2026 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Touch share | 11.8% | 13.1% | 11.9% | 11.1% |
| Touches a game | 7.3 | 6.8 | 8.0 | 6.4 |
| Snap share | 78.7% | 85.0% | 78.0% | 81.9% |
Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Each bar is measured against a touchdown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 1 of his team's games in this span (Jan 5 at DEN); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.
| Split | Scored | Rate | TDs/game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 | 1/5 | 20% | 0.20 |
| Last 10 | 3/10 | 30% | 0.30 |
| 2026 season | 1/2 | 50% | 0.50 |
| 2025 season | 5/17 | 29% | 0.29 |
| At home | 4/21 | 19% | 0.19 |
| On the road | 6/17 | 35% | 0.35 |
| Vs IND | 1/2 | 50% | 0.50 |
| As a favorite | 10/33 | 30% | 0.30 |
| Short rest | 4/9 | 44% | 0.44 |
| Prime time | 4/14 | 29% | 0.29 |
| With Patrick Mahomes | 10/35 | 29% | 0.29 |
Books and line movement
| Book | Line | Yes |
|---|---|---|
| MGM | — | +195 |
| DK | — | +190 |
| FD | — | +185 |
We have not seen a line for this yet.
Routes
Routes and coverage
2024–25 seasons · 259 targets with a route label| Route | Share | Tgt | Catch | Yds/tgt | EPA/tgt | IND allow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hitch / curl | 81 | 79% | 6.7(6.8) | +0.41 | 7.2 | |
| Quick out | 41 | 88% | 5.6(5.5) | +0.33 | 5.5 | |
| Shallow cross | 27 | 63% | 7.4(6.5) | +0.39 | 6.1 | |
| In / dig | 26 | 58% | 7.8(9.6) | +0.28 | 10.4 | |
| Screen | 19 | 89% | 3.9(5.8) | −0.17 | 5.5 | |
| Slant | 18 | 61% | 6.3(7.2) | −0.25 | 7.7 | |
| Corner | 13 | 46% | 10.6(10.4) | −0.20 | 12.2 | |
| Deep out | 12 | 67% | 9.2(8.0) | +0.71 | 7.9 | |
| Go | 9 | 33% | 10.1(9.9) | +0.58 | 10.0 | |
| Post | 8 | 63% | 14.3(12.3) | +0.96 | 12.5 | |
| Swing | 3 | 100% | 15.0(5.3) | +0.61 | 4.5 | |
| Wheel | 2 | 0% | 0.0(10.2) | −0.93 | 11.0 |
Against man and zone
| Defense | Tgt | Catch | Yds/tgt | EPA/tgt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zone | 163 | 72% | 6.8 | +0.26 |
| Man | 96 | 71% | 7.9 | +0.35 |
Against each coverage
| Defense | Tgt | Catch | Yds/tgt | EPA/tgt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 1 | 70 | 69% | 8.4 | +0.32 |
| Cover 2 | 56 | 73% | 6.7 | +0.37 |
| Cover 3 | 56 | 75% | 7.5 | +0.32 |
| Cover 4 | 35 | 74% | 6.7 | +0.24 |
| Cover 0 | 15 | 80% | 6.0 | +0.56 |
| 2-man | 11 | 73% | 7.3 | +0.24 |
| Cover 6 | 6 | 33% | 2.7 | −0.94 |
| Cover 9 | 4 | 50% | 3.3 | −0.20 |
Routes are the ones the player was targetedon: nflverse labels the targeted receiver's route on about nine in ten targets, and routes run without a throw are not public, so this shows where a player's looks come from, not everything he ran. Yards per target in brackets is the league figure for that route. Rows with few targets are dimmed; small samples swing.
Game log
| Game | Result | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Snap % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W2 vs INDSep 20 | W 33–30 | 11 | 9 | 101 | 1 | 85% |
| 2026 W1 vs DENSep 14 | W 31–10 | 5 | 3 | 71 | 0 | 71% |
| 2025 W18 @ LVJan 4 | L 12–14 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 80% |
| 2025 W17 vs DENDec 25 | L 13–20 | 6 | 5 | 36 | 0 | 98% |
| 2025 W16 @ TENDec 21 | L 9–26 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 78% |
| 2025 W15 vs LACDec 14 | L 13–16 | 9 | 7 | 70 | 0 | 98% |
| 2025 W14 vs HOUDec 7 | L 10–20 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 91% |
| 2025 W13 @ DALNov 27 | L 28–31 | 6 | 5 | 45 | 1 | 91% |
| 2025 W12 vs INDNov 23 | W 23–20 | 6 | 4 | 43 | 0 | 88% |
| 2025 W11 @ DENNov 16 | L 19–22 | 13 | 9 | 91 | 1 | 79% |
| 2025 W9 @ BUFNov 2 | L 21–28 | 5 | 4 | 66 | 0 | 92% |
| 2025 W8 vs WSHOct 27 | W 28–7 | 8 | 6 | 99 | 1 | 84% |
| 2025 W7 vs LVOct 19 | W 31–0 | 3 | 3 | 54 | 0 | 62% |
| 2025 W6 vs DETOct 12 | W 30–17 | 7 | 6 | 78 | 0 | 70% |
| 2025 W5 @ JAXOct 6 | L 28–31 | 8 | 7 | 61 | 1 | 80% |
| 2025 W4 vs BALSep 28 | W 37–20 | 5 | 5 | 48 | 0 | 66% |
| 2025 W3 @ NYGSep 21 | W 22–9 | 7 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 74% |
| 2025 W2 vs PHISep 14 | L 17–20 | 6 | 4 | 61 | 0 | 77% |
| 2025 W1 @ LACSep 5 | L 21–27 | 4 | 2 | 47 | 1 | 84% |
Prop lines come from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM through TheRundown and can lag what a book shows right now — check the book before you rely on a number. Splits count the games he played (snap counts show who was on the field) and describe the past; they are not a prediction. A game he played with no stat line counts as a zero; a game he sat out is left out, because books void the prop then. Stats and route labels from nflverse. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.