Props this week
Pass yds 239.5
Middle half of these games: 202.5–298 · median 260 · range 110–457
How his pass yds tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.
Volume drivers and his share
| Stafford's role | Last 3 | Last 6 | 2026 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass attempts a game | 34.0 | 37.0 | 25.0 | 35.8 |
| Snap share | 94.7% | 96.7% | 84.0% | 98.8% |
| Driver | LAR offense | NYG defense faces |
|---|---|---|
| Dropbacks per game | 37.4 #11 | 36.5 #14 |
| Pass rate over expected | +4.6 #3 | +0.1 #17 |
| Neutral-script pass rate | 59.2% #6 | 56.1% #8 |
| Dropback success rate | 52.0% #2 | 45.8% #17 |
| EPA per dropback | +0.20 #3 | +0.07 #16 |
Last 17 games, ranked against the league (#1 = highest). "Defense faces" is how offenses have played against that defense. Rates over expected compare with how a typical team plays the same downs, distances and scores, shown against the league average. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Throw quality
| His passes | Stafford | League | NYG defense faces |
|---|---|---|---|
| Catchable-ball rate | 69.6% | 68.1% | 71.9% #8 |
| Interception-worthy throws | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.1% #29 |
| Completion % under pressure | 38.5% | 34.6% | 32.5% #24 |
| Completion % clean | 67.0% | 69.4% | 73.1% #7 |
| Pressure rate | 22.6% | 29.7% | 29.8% #19 |
| Drops by his receivers | 5.5% | 5.5% | 8.0% #2 |
His last 17 games and the teams' last 17. "Catchable" is FTN's charting: a defended or inaccurate pass is not catchable, and throwaways and spikes are left out. Pressure and completion under pressure come from nflverse participation, published weeks after the games (so far through 2025 week 22). Dimmed numbers are over fewer than 30 plays. Descriptive, not a forecast. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Market curve vs his games
● books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · ● his games over that number
| Number | Best over | Books price | His games |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1100 FD | 92%* | 95% (37/39) | |
| -550 FD | 85%* | 87% (34/39) | |
| -290 FD | 79%* | 74% (29/39) | |
| -158 FD | 61%* | 64% (25/39) | |
| main | -113 FD | 50% | 64% (25/39) |
| main | -112 DK | 50% | 64% (25/39) |
| main | -115 MGM | 50% | 64% (25/39) |
| +198 FD | 34%* | 44% (17/39) | |
| +350 FD | 24%* | 23% (9/39) | |
| +850 MGM | 11%* | 13% (5/39) |
* A one-sided price includes the book's margin, which is larger on far alternates, so the probability reads a little high. Numbers a book has not refreshed in a while, and old main lines it has moved off, are left out.
Each bar is measured against the line shown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 1 of his team's games in this span (Jan 5 vs SEA); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.
| Split | Over | Rate | Avg | Med |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 | 4/5 | 80% | 270.0 | 259 |
| Last 10 | 9/10 | 90% | 296.8 | 275 |
| 2026 season | 0/1 | 0% | 155.0 | 155 |
| 2025 season | 16/20 | 80% | 282.1 | 276.5 |
| At home | 12/18 | 67% | 257.9 | 259.5 |
| On the road | 13/21 | 62% | 259.5 | 269 |
| As a favorite | 17/26 | 65% | 250.3 | 264 |
| Long rest | 3/6 | 50% | 215.5 | 225 |
| Prime time | 8/12 | 67% | 269.4 | 271 |
| Vs middling defenses | 6/13 | 46% | 235.6 | 224 |
| Without Puka Nacua (Questionable) | 1/6 | 17% | 209.5 | 218.5 |
| With Puka Nacua | 24/33 | 73% | 267.8 | 279 |
| Without Jordan Whittington (Doubtful) | 5/5 | 100% | 276.6 | 279 |
| With Jordan Whittington | 20/34 | 59% | 256.2 | 259 |
Books and line movement
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| MGM | 242.5 | -115 | -115 |
| DK | 239.5 | -112 | -111 |
| FD | 238.5 | -113 | -113 |
Steady at 239.5 since Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET.
Pass TDs 1.5
Middle half of these games: 1–3 · median 2 · range 0–5
How his pass tds tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.
Volume drivers and his share
| Stafford's role | Last 3 | Last 6 | 2026 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass attempts a game | 34.0 | 37.0 | 25.0 | 35.8 |
| Snap share | 94.7% | 96.7% | 84.0% | 98.8% |
| Driver | LAR offense | NYG defense faces |
|---|---|---|
| Dropbacks per game | 37.4 #11 | 36.5 #14 |
| Pass rate over expected | +4.6 #3 | +0.1 #17 |
| Neutral-script pass rate | 59.2% #6 | 56.1% #8 |
| Dropback success rate | 52.0% #2 | 45.8% #17 |
| EPA per dropback | +0.20 #3 | +0.07 #16 |
Last 17 games, ranked against the league (#1 = highest). "Defense faces" is how offenses have played against that defense. Rates over expected compare with how a typical team plays the same downs, distances and scores, shown against the league average. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Throw quality
| His passes | Stafford | League | NYG defense faces |
|---|---|---|---|
| Catchable-ball rate | 69.6% | 68.1% | 71.9% #8 |
| Interception-worthy throws | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.1% #29 |
| Completion % under pressure | 38.5% | 34.6% | 32.5% #24 |
| Completion % clean | 67.0% | 69.4% | 73.1% #7 |
| Pressure rate | 22.6% | 29.7% | 29.8% #19 |
| Drops by his receivers | 5.5% | 5.5% | 8.0% #2 |
His last 17 games and the teams' last 17. "Catchable" is FTN's charting: a defended or inaccurate pass is not catchable, and throwaways and spikes are left out. Pressure and completion under pressure come from nflverse participation, published weeks after the games (so far through 2025 week 22). Dimmed numbers are over fewer than 30 plays. Descriptive, not a forecast. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Market curve vs his games
● books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · ● his games over that number
| Number | Best over | Books price | His games |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1100 FD | 92%* | 79% (31/39) | |
| main | -178 FD | 61% | 64% (25/39) |
| +205 FD | 33%* | 33% (13/39) | |
| +680 FD | 13%* | 15% (6/39) |
* A one-sided price includes the book's margin, which is larger on far alternates, so the probability reads a little high. Numbers a book has not refreshed in a while, and old main lines it has moved off, are left out.
Each bar is measured against the line shown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 1 of his team's games in this span (Jan 5 vs SEA); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.
| Split | Over | Rate | Avg | Med |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 | 3/5 | 60% | 2.0 | 3 |
| Last 10 | 8/10 | 80% | 2.2 | 2.5 |
| 2026 season | 0/1 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 |
| 2025 season | 17/20 | 85% | 2.6 | 3 |
| At home | 11/18 | 61% | 1.9 | 2 |
| On the road | 14/21 | 67% | 2.0 | 2 |
| As a favorite | 17/26 | 65% | 2.0 | 2 |
| Long rest | 3/6 | 50% | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Prime time | 7/12 | 58% | 1.7 | 2 |
| Vs middling defenses | 11/18 | 61% | 1.9 | 2 |
| Without Puka Nacua (Questionable) | 1/6 | 17% | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| With Puka Nacua | 24/33 | 73% | 2.1 | 2 |
| Without Jordan Whittington (Doubtful) | 5/5 | 100% | 3.0 | 3 |
| With Jordan Whittington | 20/34 | 59% | 1.8 | 2 |
Books and line movement
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 1.5 | -189 | +147 |
| FD | 1.5 | -178 | +136 |
Steady at 1.5 since Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET.
Pass att 32.5
Middle half of these games: 27.5–40.5 · median 33 · range 19–49
How his pass att tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.
Volume drivers and his share
| Stafford's role | Last 3 | Last 6 | 2026 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass attempts a game | 34.0 | 37.0 | 25.0 | 35.8 |
| Snap share | 94.7% | 96.7% | 84.0% | 98.8% |
| Driver | LAR offense | NYG defense faces |
|---|---|---|
| Dropbacks per game | 37.4 #11 | 36.5 #14 |
| Pass rate over expected | +4.6 #3 | +0.1 #17 |
| Neutral-script pass rate | 59.2% #6 | 56.1% #8 |
| Dropback success rate | 52.0% #2 | 45.8% #17 |
| EPA per dropback | +0.20 #3 | +0.07 #16 |
Last 17 games, ranked against the league (#1 = highest). "Defense faces" is how offenses have played against that defense. Rates over expected compare with how a typical team plays the same downs, distances and scores, shown against the league average. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Throw quality
| His passes | Stafford | League | NYG defense faces |
|---|---|---|---|
| Catchable-ball rate | 69.6% | 68.1% | 71.9% #8 |
| Interception-worthy throws | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.1% #29 |
| Completion % under pressure | 38.5% | 34.6% | 32.5% #24 |
| Completion % clean | 67.0% | 69.4% | 73.1% #7 |
| Pressure rate | 22.6% | 29.7% | 29.8% #19 |
| Drops by his receivers | 5.5% | 5.5% | 8.0% #2 |
His last 17 games and the teams' last 17. "Catchable" is FTN's charting: a defended or inaccurate pass is not catchable, and throwaways and spikes are left out. Pressure and completion under pressure come from nflverse participation, published weeks after the games (so far through 2025 week 22). Dimmed numbers are over fewer than 30 plays. Descriptive, not a forecast. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Each bar is measured against the line shown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 1 of his team's games in this span (Jan 5 vs SEA); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.
| Split | Over | Rate | Avg | Med |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 | 4/5 | 80% | 36.8 | 40 |
| Last 10 | 7/10 | 70% | 36.8 | 38 |
| 2026 season | 0/1 | 0% | 25.0 | 25 |
| 2025 season | 14/20 | 70% | 35.8 | 35 |
| At home | 9/18 | 50% | 34.1 | 33 |
| On the road | 12/21 | 57% | 34.1 | 33 |
| As a favorite | 13/26 | 50% | 33.3 | 32.5 |
| Long rest | 2/6 | 33% | 30.3 | 29 |
| Prime time | 8/12 | 67% | 37.1 | 35.5 |
| Vs middling defenses | 7/12 | 58% | 36.3 | 34.5 |
| Without Puka Nacua (Questionable) | 2/6 | 33% | 30.3 | 28 |
| With Puka Nacua | 19/33 | 58% | 34.8 | 34 |
| Without Jordan Whittington (Doubtful) | 5/5 | 100% | 39.2 | 40 |
| With Jordan Whittington | 16/34 | 47% | 33.3 | 32 |
Books and line movement
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| MGM | 32.5 | -110 | -120 |
| DK | 32.5 | -107 | -119 |
Steady at 32.5 since Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET.
Completions 20.5
Middle half of these games: 18–25 · median 22 · range 14–34
How his completions tends to spread out in a game he plays, from his recent games weighted toward the latest. In testing on the 2023–2025 seasons the actual result landed in the middle half 53% of the time and in the 80% range 83%; his last 10 games alone would have caught 43% and 69%. It ignores the opponent, the game script and injuries, and it is not a prediction against any line.
Volume drivers and his share
| Stafford's role | Last 3 | Last 6 | 2026 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass attempts a game | 34.0 | 37.0 | 25.0 | 35.8 |
| Snap share | 94.7% | 96.7% | 84.0% | 98.8% |
| Driver | LAR offense | NYG defense faces |
|---|---|---|
| Dropbacks per game | 37.4 #11 | 36.5 #14 |
| Pass rate over expected | +4.6 #3 | +0.1 #17 |
| Neutral-script pass rate | 59.2% #6 | 56.1% #8 |
| Dropback success rate | 52.0% #2 | 45.8% #17 |
| EPA per dropback | +0.20 #3 | +0.07 #16 |
Last 17 games, ranked against the league (#1 = highest). "Defense faces" is how offenses have played against that defense. Rates over expected compare with how a typical team plays the same downs, distances and scores, shown against the league average. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Throw quality
| His passes | Stafford | League | NYG defense faces |
|---|---|---|---|
| Catchable-ball rate | 69.6% | 68.1% | 71.9% #8 |
| Interception-worthy throws | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.1% #29 |
| Completion % under pressure | 38.5% | 34.6% | 32.5% #24 |
| Completion % clean | 67.0% | 69.4% | 73.1% #7 |
| Pressure rate | 22.6% | 29.7% | 29.8% #19 |
| Drops by his receivers | 5.5% | 5.5% | 8.0% #2 |
His last 17 games and the teams' last 17. "Catchable" is FTN's charting: a defended or inaccurate pass is not catchable, and throwaways and spikes are left out. Pressure and completion under pressure come from nflverse participation, published weeks after the games (so far through 2025 week 22). Dimmed numbers are over fewer than 30 plays. Descriptive, not a forecast. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Market curve vs his games
● books price the over (hollow = one side priced, margin included) · ● his games over that number
| Number | Best over | Books price | His games |
|---|---|---|---|
| main | -125 MGM | 52% | 59% (23/39) |
| main | -116 DK | 51% | 54% (21/39) |
* A one-sided price includes the book's margin, which is larger on far alternates, so the probability reads a little high. Numbers a book has not refreshed in a while, and old main lines it has moved off, are left out.
Each bar is measured against the line shown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 1 of his team's games in this span (Jan 5 vs SEA); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.
| Split | Over | Rate | Avg | Med |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 | 3/5 | 60% | 21.2 | 22 |
| Last 10 | 7/10 | 70% | 22.1 | 22 |
| 2026 season | 0/1 | 0% | 15.0 | 15 |
| 2025 season | 15/20 | 75% | 22.7 | 22.5 |
| At home | 12/18 | 67% | 22.6 | 24 |
| On the road | 11/21 | 52% | 21.3 | 21 |
| As a favorite | 15/26 | 58% | 21.2 | 21.5 |
| Long rest | 3/6 | 50% | 19.3 | 19.5 |
| Prime time | 8/12 | 67% | 24.0 | 24.5 |
| Vs soft defenses | 4/10 | 40% | 20.6 | 19.5 |
| Without Puka Nacua (Questionable) | 2/6 | 33% | 19.8 | 19.5 |
| With Puka Nacua | 21/33 | 64% | 22.3 | 23 |
| Without Jordan Whittington (Doubtful) | 5/5 | 100% | 24.6 | 25 |
| With Jordan Whittington | 18/34 | 53% | 21.5 | 21 |
Books and line movement
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| MGM | 20.5 | -125 | -105 |
| DK | 21.5 | -116 | -110 |
- Sep 21, 1:43 AM ET20.5▼ 1
- Sep 20, 3:33 PM ET21.5first seen
Anytime TD
Volume drivers and his share
| Stafford's role | Last 3 | Last 6 | 2026 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Touch share | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 2.7% |
| Touches a game | 1.7 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| Snap share | 94.7% | 96.7% | 84.0% | 98.8% |
Shares are his total over his team's total across the games he played, so a game with no touches counts as zero and a game he sat out is left out. The last two columns are seasons. Games whose team box score is not complete yet are left out of a share. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Each bar is measured against a touchdown, not the number that game actually had. Faded bars are outside the filters. Games he played with no stat count as zero. He sat out 1 of his team's games in this span (Jan 5 vs SEA); those are left out, as books void a prop when a player does not play.
| Split | Scored | Rate | TDs/game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 | 0/5 | 0% | 0.00 |
| Last 10 | 0/10 | 0% | 0.00 |
| 2026 season | 0/1 | 0% | 0.00 |
| 2025 season | 0/20 | 0% | 0.00 |
| At home | 0/18 | 0% | 0.00 |
| On the road | 0/21 | 0% | 0.00 |
| As a favorite | 0/26 | 0% | 0.00 |
| Long rest | 0/6 | 0% | 0.00 |
| Prime time | 0/12 | 0% | 0.00 |
| Without Puka Nacua (Questionable) | 0/6 | 0% | 0.00 |
| With Puka Nacua | 0/33 | 0% | 0.00 |
| Without Jordan Whittington (Doubtful) | 0/5 | 0% | 0.00 |
| With Jordan Whittington | 0/34 | 0% | 0.00 |
Books and line movement
| Book | Line | Yes |
|---|---|---|
| MGM | — | +1500 |
| DK | — | +2000 |
| FD | — | +1600 |
We have not seen a line for this yet.
Game log
| Game | Result | C/A | Pass yds | TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Snap % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W1 vs SFSep 10 | L 7–27 | 15/25 | 155 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 84% |
| 2025 W21 · playoffs @ SEAJan 25 | L 27–31 | 22/35 | 374 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 100% |
| 2025 W20 · playoffs @ CHIJan 18 | W 20–17 | 20/42 | 258 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 100% |
| 2025 W19 · playoffs @ CARJan 10 | W 34–31 | 24/42 | 304 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| 2025 W18 vs ARIJan 4 | W 37–20 | 25/40 | 259 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 96% |
| 2025 W17 @ ATLDec 29 | L 24–27 | 22/38 | 269 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| 2025 W16 @ SEADec 18 | L 37–38 | 29/49 | 457 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 100% |
| 2025 W15 vs DETDec 14 | W 41–34 | 24/38 | 368 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 100% |
| 2025 W14 @ ARIDec 7 | W 45–17 | 22/31 | 281 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 83% |
| 2025 W13 @ CARNov 30 | L 28–31 | 18/28 | 243 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 100% |
| 2025 W12 vs TBNov 23 | W 34–7 | 25/35 | 273 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| 2025 W11 vs SEANov 16 | W 21–19 | 15/28 | 130 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| 2025 W10 @ SFNov 9 | W 42–26 | 24/36 | 280 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 100% |
| 2025 W9 vs NONov 2 | W 34–10 | 24/32 | 281 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 | 100% |
| 2025 W7 @ JAXOct 19 | W 35–7 | 21/33 | 182 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 96% |
| 2025 W6 @ BALOct 12 | W 17–3 | 17/26 | 181 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 100% |
| 2025 W5 vs SFOct 2 | L 23–26 | 30/47 | 389 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| 2025 W4 vs INDSep 28 | W 27–20 | 29/41 | 375 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% |
| 2025 W3 @ PHISep 21 | L 26–33 | 19/33 | 196 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| 2025 W2 @ TENSep 14 | W 33–19 | 23/33 | 298 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 0 | 100% |
| 2025 W1 vs HOUSep 7 | W 14–9 | 21/29 | 245 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 100% |
Prop lines come from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM through TheRundown and can lag what a book shows right now — check the book before you rely on a number. Splits count the games he played (snap counts show who was on the field) and describe the past; they are not a prediction. A game he played with no stat line counts as a zero; a game he sat out is left out, because books void the prop then. Stats and route labels from nflverse. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.