Football track record
Winner, spread and total — every call locked before kickoff and graded after, with the backtest underneath it. The parts that don't work are on the page too.
Locked before kickoff Only picks written before the game started count here. Anything scored after the fact is in the backtest section below, kept separate on purpose.
Backtest Walk-forward: every pick made from ratings built only on games before it, then graded against the closing line. Reported straight, including the parts that do not work.
| Season | Games | Winners | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 269 | 177/269 · 66% | 133-136 · 49% | 120-144-5 · 45% |
| 2021 | 285 | 170/285 · 60% | 134-147-4 · 48% | 144-138-3 · 51% |
| 2022 | 284 | 182/284 · 64% | 135-139-10 · 49% | 130-151-3 · 46% |
| 2023 | 285 | 173/285 · 61% | 128-143-14 · 47% | 140-141-4 · 50% |
| 2024 | 285 | 191/285 · 67% | 138-143-4 · 49% | 141-141-3 · 50% |
| 2025 | 285 | 183/285 · 64% | 141-143-1 · 50% | 153-132 · 54% |
What it says: the model picks winners at about 64% and its probabilities are calibrated, but the closing moneyline is better still (≈66%), and against closing spreads and totals the model sits at 49% — a coin flip, not an edge. So winner calls are a proven read; spread and total calls are leans we grade in public. Adding QB-start adjustments is the known next step.
College Football
This week's slate →Locked before kickoff Only picks written before the game started count here. Anything scored after the fact is in the backtest section below, kept separate on purpose.
Backtest Walk-forward: every pick made from ratings built only on games before it, then graded against the closing line. Reported straight, including the parts that do not work.
| Season | Games | Winners | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 919 | 645/919 · 70% | no lines | no lines |
| 2025 | 934 | 682/934 · 73% | no lines | no lines |
| 2026 | 27 | 18/27 · 67% | no lines | no lines |
What it says: winners at about 70% over 2,400 FBS games against a 58% pick-the-home-team baseline, well calibrated. There is no free source of historical college closing lines, so the spread and total sides have no backtest yet and are graded live from their first week here.
UFC has its own record on Results. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.