Books price Erceg at 54% to win (vig removed) — our model has value of +9.9% on TemirovEdge = our model's win probability minus the market's implied probability (after removing the sportsbook's margin). Positive = the model thinks this fighter wins more often than the odds suggest, so their price is the value side. Bigger gaps deserve more skepticism, not more money.
"Fair" is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome — compare it to your book's method-of-victory market: a book price longer than fair is value if you trust the model. (Our odds feed doesn't carry method markets, so we can't auto-compare yet.)
Median sportsbook implied win probability (vig included) at each odds snapshot since we started tracking this fight. A rising line = money and respect moving toward that fighter.
The model makes Temirov a narrow 56% favorite, more confident than the market's 46%. Erceg throws more (4.0 vs 1.0/min), but the model sees Temirov edging rounds on effectiveness — absorbing 0.9/min to Erceg's 3.5. Temirov is most dangerous early — 7 of 11 tracked wins ended in the first round. Temirov's most likely path is on the scorecards (28%), and the fight goes the distance 52% of the time. The live danger for Temirov: Erceg finishes 43% of wins by submission and Temirov has been submitted in 33% of losses.
Model: recent-fight output & defense rates (ESPN box stats), career method splits, durability, layoffs, and physical edges through a bounded logistic; weights tuned by walk-forward backtest on 1,535 UFC fights — 61% winner accuracy and 32% exact winner-plus-method on 204 held-out fights (vs 26% picking favorite-by-decision). Probabilities are discounted in boom-or-bust matchups (both fighters' bouts ending fast) and squeezed toward the betting market's implied odds where a line exists — divergence beyond 10 points counts half. Experimental — size responsibly.
| Book | R. Temirov to winPrice on this fighter winning by any method. Negative = favorite (risk that much to win $100); positive = underdog ($100 wins that much). | S. Erceg to win | RoundsTotal-rounds line. 2.5 = the bet is whether the fight gets past the halfway mark of round 3 (2:30). Over pays if it does. | O / U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | +110 | -130 | — | — / — |
| BetRivers | +107 | -132 | — | — / — |
| BetUS | +110 | -130 | — | — / — |
| FanDuel | +106 | -136 | — | — / — |