Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Nelson Velázquez

St. Louis Cardinals · DH · Bats R

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.37
Edge
-4.2%
Last 20
40%8/20 over 0.5
Window avg
0.40
Median
0.0
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
40%
8/20
2026
41%
9/22
Avg0.48
StreakL1

Tonight's matchup: Kyle Harrison (LHP)

Bats RightThrows LeftPlatoon edge: batter
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Four-seam FB
58.7%
95.0.235.64737.8%
Slurve
30.4%
82.2
Changeup
9.3%
86.3
Sinker
1.7%
94.8.444.77827.8%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Nelson Velázquez clears 0.5 Runs Scored, these hit too

Jordan Walker o0.5 Runs Scored
hits when he does 67% · base 45% · n=9 · +139 dabble_us_dfs
Jordan Walker o1.5 Total Bases
hits when he does 67% · base 59% · n=9 · +133 dabble_us_dfs

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Runs Scoredlast 20 vs 0.5

official box scores
0vs TEX06/010vs TEX06/021vs TEX06/030vs CIN06/061vs CIN06/071@ NYM06/100@ MIN06/120@ MIN06/130vs SD06/170@ KC06/181@ KC06/190vs AZ06/230vs AZ06/241@ ATL06/300@ ATL07/011@ CHC07/030@ CHC07/051vs MIL07/061vs MIL07/070vs MIL07/070.5

Tonight's odds — Runs Scored

BookLineOverUnder
dabble_us_dfs0.5+188-185

Line movement — Runs Scored

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs MIL Runs Scored, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 4/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

JJ Wetherholt STL07/071
Iván Herrera STL07/071
Jordan Walker STL07/071
Jordan Walker STL07/071
Alec Burleson STL07/070
Nathan Church STL07/070
Blaze Jordan STL07/070
Jimmy Crooks STL07/070
José Fermín STL07/070
Alec Burleson STL07/070
Iván Herrera STL07/070
JJ Wetherholt STL07/070
José Fermín STL07/070
Lars Nootbaar STL07/070

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

onBasePercentage
.500.000.200.125.4001.000.400.200.250
Exit Velo
91.5897.9797.3994.3497.9596.6686.5097.5993.53
AVG
.500.000.200.143.4001.000.400.200.250
sluggingPercentage
1.000.000.200.1431.6002.000.600.600.250
OPS
1.500.000.400.2502.0003.0001.000.800.500