MLB Model Edges
Where Probetrics Score v0 disagrees most with the sportsbooks tonight. Positive edge = our model likes the Over more than the market does; negative = the Under. Experimental — not betting advice.
Jahmai Jones
DET vs OAK · 6:40 PM ET
Under 0.5Hits
season avg 0.41 · model proj 0.25
Model
78%
Market
52%
Fair -109Model EV +40.2%1/4-Kelly 12.7% of bankroll
best under: -126 DraftKingsBet slip →
Willson Contreras
BOS @ CWS · 7:40 PM ET
Over 1.5Total Bases
season avg 1.73 · model proj 2.17
Model
63%
Market
40%
Fair +151Model EV +49.4%1/4-Kelly 9.1% of bankroll
best over: +136 BetOnline
Pete Crow-Armstrong
CHC @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET
Over 1.5Total Bases
season avg 1.65 · model proj 2.38
Model
69%
Market
46%
Fair +119Model EV +43.7%1/4-Kelly 10.0% of bankroll
best over: +109 BetOnline
Drew Romo
CWS vs BOS · 7:40 PM ET
Under 0.5Hits
season avg 0.45 · model proj 0.36
Model
70%
Market
47%
Fair +111Model EV +39.3%1/4-Kelly 9.8% of bankroll
best under: +100 BetOnline
Tyler Phillips
MIA vs SEA · 6:40 PM ET
Under 4.5Pitcher Strikeouts
season avg 3.07 · model proj 3.21
Model
78%
Market
56%
Fair -126Model EV +32.0%1/4-Kelly 11.5% of bankroll
best under: -144 DraftKingsBet slip →
James Wood
WSH vs HOU · 6:45 PM ET
Over 1.5Total Bases
season avg 1.84 · model proj 2.48
Model
66%
Market
44%
Fair +129Model EV +41.2%1/4-Kelly 9.0% of bankroll
best over: +115 Bovada
Amed Rosario
NYY @ TB · 6:40 PM ET
Under 0.5Hits
season avg 0.85 · model proj 0.59
Model
56%
Market
34%
Fair +190Model EV +51.1%1/4-Kelly 7.4% of bankroll
best under: +172 DraftKingsBet slip →
Riley Greene
DET vs OAK · 6:40 PM ET
Over 1.5Total Bases
season avg 1.79 · model proj 2.50
Model
62%
Market
41%
Fair +144Model EV +42.1%1/4-Kelly 8.1% of bankroll
best over: +130 Bovada
Tristan Peters
CWS vs BOS · 7:40 PM ET
Over 0.5Total Bases
season avg 1.24 · model proj 1.52
Model
73%
Market
53%
Fair -113Model EV +29.9%1/4-Kelly 9.7% of bankroll
best over: -130 BetOnline
Luke Raley
SEA @ MIA · 6:40 PM ET
Under 0.5Hits
season avg 0.66 · model proj 0.51
Model
60%
Market
40%
Fair +152Model EV +41.4%1/4-Kelly 7.6% of bankroll
best under: +136 DraftKingsBet slip →
MacKenzie Gore
TEX vs LAA · 8:05 PM ET
Under 17.5Pitcher Outs
season avg 15.82 · model proj 16.26
Model
63%
Market
43%
Fair +133Model EV +39.0%1/4-Kelly 8.1% of bankroll
best under: +120 Bovada
Luis Arraez
SF vs TOR · 3:45 PM ET
Over 1.5Total Bases
season avg 1.65 · model proj 1.93
Model
57%
Market
37%
Fair +167Model EV +42.7%1/4-Kelly 7.1% of bankroll
best over: +150 Bovada
Paul Goldschmidt
NYY @ TB · 6:40 PM ET
Under 0.5Hits
season avg 0.95 · model proj 0.68
Model
51%
Market
31%
Fair +221Model EV +52.5%1/4-Kelly 6.5% of bankroll
best under: +201 DraftKingsBet slip →
Mauricio Dubón
ATL @ PIT · 6:40 PM ET
Over 1.5Total Bases
season avg 1.25 · model proj 1.81
Model
56%
Market
37%
Fair +171Model EV +42.0%1/4-Kelly 6.8% of bankroll
best over: +155 Bovada
Lawrence Butler
OAK @ DET · 6:40 PM ET
Under 0.5Hits
season avg 0.83 · model proj 0.54
Model
58%
Market
40%
Fair +151Model EV +37.2%1/4-Kelly 6.9% of bankroll
best under: +135 DraftKingsBet slip →
Jackson Holliday
BAL vs CHC · 6:35 PM ET
Under 0.5Hits
season avg 0.80 · model proj 0.48
Model
62%
Market
43%
Fair +131Model EV +40.8%1/4-Kelly 8.0% of bankroll
best under: +128 BetOnline
Dansby Swanson
CHC @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET
Over 1.5Total Bases
season avg 1.45 · model proj 2.21
Model
54%
Market
36%
Fair +181Model EV +42.5%1/4-Kelly 6.5% of bankroll
best over: +164 BetOnline
Randal Grichuk
CWS vs BOS · 7:40 PM ET
Under 0.5Hits
season avg 0.63 · model proj 0.58
Model
56%
Market
38%
Fair +163Model EV +38.3%1/4-Kelly 6.6% of bankroll
best under: +146 BetOnline
Dominic Canzone
SEA @ MIA · 6:40 PM ET
Under 0.5Hits
season avg 0.71 · model proj 0.66
Model
52%
Market
34%
Fair +194Model EV +42.9%1/4-Kelly 6.1% of bankroll
best under: +176 DraftKingsBet slip →
Rodolfo Durán
SD vs AZ · 10:10 PM ET
Under 0.5Hits
season avg 0.36 · model proj 0.38
Model
69%
Market
51%
Fair -105Model EV +25.0%1/4-Kelly 7.6% of bankroll
best under: -122 DraftKingsBet slip →
Nelson Velázquez
STL vs MIL · 7:45 PM ET
Under 0.5Hits
season avg 0.64 · model proj 0.47
Model
63%
Market
46%
Fair +119Model EV +28.6%1/4-Kelly 6.8% of bankroll
best under: +105 DraftKingsBet slip →
Taylor Walls
TB vs NYY · 6:40 PM ET
Over 0.5Total Bases
season avg 0.90 · model proj 0.88
Model
62%
Market
45%
Fair +122Model EV +28.9%1/4-Kelly 6.6% of bankroll
best over: +109 BetOnline
Dominic Smith
ATL @ PIT · 6:40 PM ET
Under 0.5Hits
season avg 0.77 · model proj 0.60
Model
55%
Market
38%
Fair +161Model EV +33.8%1/4-Kelly 5.9% of bankroll
best under: +144 DraftKingsBet slip →
Curtis Mead
WSH vs HOU · 6:45 PM ET
Over 1.5Total Bases
season avg 1.15 · model proj 2.05
Model
57%
Market
41%
Fair +144Model EV +32.0%1/4-Kelly 6.2% of bankroll
best over: +130 Bovada
Nick Gonzales
PIT vs ATL · 6:40 PM ET
Over 1.5Total Bases
season avg 1.49 · model proj 1.69
Model
53%
Market
37%
Fair +169Model EV +33.9%1/4-Kelly 5.6% of bankroll
best over: +152 DraftKingsBet slip →
Walbert Ureña
LAA @ TEX · 8:05 PM ET
Under 17.5Pitcher Outs
season avg 16.21 · model proj 16.35
Model
67%
Market
52%
Fair -107Model EV +22.3%1/4-Kelly 6.9% of bankroll
best under: -123 DraftKingsBet slip →
Carlos Narváez
BOS @ CWS · 7:40 PM ET
Under 0.5Hits
season avg 0.74 · model proj 0.46
Model
63%
Market
48%
Fair +109Model EV +23.8%1/4-Kelly 6.3% of bankroll
best under: -105 DraftKingsBet slip →
Mitch Garver
SEA @ MIA · 6:40 PM ET
Under 0.5Hits
season avg 0.57 · model proj 0.52
Model
59%
Market
44%
Fair +129Model EV +26.6%1/4-Kelly 5.8% of bankroll
best under: +114 DraftKingsBet slip →
Gerrit Cole
NYY @ TB · 6:40 PM ET
Under 5.5Pitcher Strikeouts
season avg 5.40 · model proj 4.45
Model
71%
Market
56%
Fair -126Model EV +26.0%1/4-Kelly 8.4% of bankroll
best under: -130 Bovada
Evan Carter
TEX vs LAA · 8:05 PM ET
Under 0.5Hits
season avg 0.64 · model proj 0.52
Model
59%
Market
44%
Fair +126Model EV +25.2%1/4-Kelly 5.7% of bankroll
best under: +111 DraftKingsBet slip →
Edge = model P(over) − devigged market P(over) at the current mainline. Back to the full board. Affiliate links marked; 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.