Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Nelson Velázquez

St. Louis Cardinals · DH · Bats R

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.47
Edge
-17.1%
Last 15
27%4/15 over 0.5
Window avg
0.27
Median
0.0
L5
40%
2/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
35%
7/20
2026
33%
2/6
Avg0.52
StreakL3

Tonight's matchup: Kyle Harrison (LHP)

Bats RightThrows LeftPlatoon edge: batter
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Four-seam FB
58.7%
95.0.235.64737.8%
Slurve
30.4%
82.2
Changeup
9.3%
86.3
Sinker
1.7%
94.8.444.77827.8%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Hitslast 15 vs 0.5

official box scores
0@ TB05/260@ MIN05/270@ MIN05/300vs SD06/011vs SD06/020vs SEA06/080vs NYY06/131@ TEX06/220@ TEX06/230vs CIN06/061vs CIN06/071@ MIN06/130vs SD06/170@ CHC07/030@ CHC07/050.5

Tonight's odds — Hits

BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings0.5-139+105
dabble_us_dfs0.5-116+117

Line movement — Hits

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

0.512:11 AM ET11:15 AM ET
DraftKingsdabble_us_dfs

League vs MIL Hits, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 6/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Iván Herrera STL07/072
Jordan Walker STL07/072
Jordan Walker STL07/071
JJ Wetherholt STL07/071
Lars Nootbaar STL07/071
José Fermín STL07/071
Nathan Church STL07/070
Alec Burleson STL07/070
Jimmy Crooks STL07/070
Blaze Jordan STL07/070
Masyn Winn STL07/070
Nathan Church STL07/070
JJ Wetherholt STL07/070
Alec Burleson STL07/070

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

onBasePercentage
.500.000.200.125.4001.000.400.200.250
Exit Velo
91.5897.9797.3994.3497.9596.6686.5097.5993.53
AVG
.500.000.200.143.4001.000.400.200.250
sluggingPercentage
1.000.000.200.1431.6002.000.600.600.250
OPS
1.500.000.400.2502.0003.0001.000.800.500