Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Nelson Velázquez

St. Louis Cardinals · DH · Bats R

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.47
Edge
-17.1%
Last 10
0%0/9 over 2 · 1 push
Window avg
0.40
Median
0.0
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/9
L20
0%
0/18
2026
0%
0/19
Avg0.64
StreakL6

Tonight's matchup: Kyle Harrison (LHP)

Bats RightThrows LeftPlatoon edge: batter
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Four-seam FB
58.7%
95.0.235.64737.8%
Slurve
30.4%
82.2
Changeup
9.3%
86.3
Sinker
1.7%
94.8.444.77827.8%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Hitslast 10 vs 2

official box scores
0@ KC06/190vs AZ06/230vs AZ06/242@ ATL06/300@ ATL07/010@ CHC07/030@ CHC07/051vs MIL07/061vs MIL07/070vs MIL07/072

Tonight's odds — Hits

BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings0.5-139+105
dabble_us_dfs0.5-116+117

Line movement — Hits

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

0.512:11 AM ET11:15 AM ET
DraftKingsdabble_us_dfs

League vs MIL Hits, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 6/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Jordan Walker STL07/072
Iván Herrera STL07/072
Lars Nootbaar STL07/071
Jordan Walker STL07/071
José Fermín STL07/071
JJ Wetherholt STL07/071
Iván Herrera STL07/070
Masyn Winn STL07/070
Nathan Church STL07/070
Alec Burleson STL07/070
Bryan Torres STL07/070
JJ Wetherholt STL07/070
Blaze Jordan STL07/070
Nathan Church STL07/070

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

onBasePercentage
.500.000.200.125.4001.000.400.200.250
Exit Velo
91.5897.9797.3994.3497.9596.6686.5097.5993.53
AVG
.500.000.200.143.4001.000.400.200.250
sluggingPercentage
1.000.000.200.1431.6002.000.600.600.250
OPS
1.500.000.400.2502.0003.0001.000.800.500