Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Miguel Vargas

Chicago White Sox · LF · Bats R

Tonight's line
1.5
Model proj
1.79
Edge
+3.8%
Trending splitsNight 78%(40)
Last 20
75%15/20 over 0.5
Window avg
1.70
Median
1.0
L5
40%
2/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
75%
15/20
2026
65%
17/26
Avg1.34
StreakL2

Parlay pairs — when Miguel Vargas clears 1.5 Total Bases, these hit too

Davis Martin o4.5 Pitcher Strikeouts
hits when he does 80% · base 52% · n=15 · -115 Bovada
Chase Meidroth o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 74% · base 69% · n=72 · -209 DraftKings
Chase Meidroth o0.5 Total Bases
hits when he does 74% · base 69% · n=72 · -196 BetOnline
Sam Antonacci o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 69% · base 66% · n=29 · -244 BetOnline

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Total Baseslast 20 vs 0.5

official box scores
4vs TB04/165@ OAK04/195@ AZ04/222vs WSH04/240vs WSH04/261vs LAA04/290@ LAA05/051vs KC05/144@ SF05/241vs MIN05/271vs DET05/301@ MIN06/021@ PHI06/051vs ATL06/102@ NYY06/170@ NYY06/181@ DET06/194vs CLE06/230@ CLE07/040vs BOS07/070.5

Tonight's odds — Total Bases

BookLineOverUnder
BetOnline1.5+107-139

Line movement — Total Bases

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs BOS Total Bases, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 3/14 would clear tonight's 1.5

Sam Antonacci CWS07/073
Junior Perez CWS07/071
Luisangel Acuña CWS07/070
Chase Meidroth CWS07/070
Colson Montgomery CWS07/070
Tristan Peters CWS07/070
Randal Grichuk CWS07/070
Kyle Teel CWS07/070
Zach Neto LAA07/057
Jo Adell LAA07/053
Denzer Guzman LAA07/051
Logan O'Hoppe LAA07/051
Vaughn Grissom LAA07/050
Jorge Soler LAA07/050

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

AVG
.211.233.059.375.242.208.462.261.281
OPS
.650.833.2221.406.909.5831.231.638.688
Exit Velo
87.7995.1389.9193.4496.5786.7398.1193.4189.38
sluggingPercentage
.421.600.1181.031.667.375.769.391.406
onBasePercentage
.250.233.111.375.242.208.462.255.281