Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Dominic Smith

Atlanta Braves · 1B · Bats L

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.03
Edge
-5.4%
Last 20
0%0/20 over 2
Window avg
0.00
Median
0.0
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/10
L20
0%
0/20
2026
0%
0/75
Avg0.07
StreakL230

Tonight's matchup: Jared Jones (RHP)

Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Four-seam FB
38.0%
98.6.387.56512.7%
Slider
32.6%
90.2.167.16738.6%
Changeup
17.8%
93.4.077.07731.9%
Curveball
11.6%
85.7.346.50034.8%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Dominic Smith clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too

Mike Yastrzemski o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 75% · base 56% · n=8 · -108 dabble_us_dfs
Mike Yastrzemski o0.5 Total Bases
hits when he does 75% · base 56% · n=8 · -108 dabble_us_dfs

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Home Runslast 20 vs 2

official box scores
0@ NYM06/120@ NYM06/130@ NYM06/140vs SF06/160vs SF06/170vs MIL06/190vs MIL06/200@ SD06/220@ SD06/230@ SD06/240@ SF06/260@ SF06/270@ SF06/280vs STL06/300vs STL07/010vs STL07/020vs NYM07/030vs NYM07/050vs NYM07/060@ PIT07/072

Tonight's odds — Home Runs

BookLineOverUnder
dabble_us_dfs0.5+1149-1111

Line movement — Home Runs

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs PIT Home Runs, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 2/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Jim Jarvis ATL07/070
Mike Yastrzemski ATL07/070
Matt Olson ATL07/070
Michael Harris II ATL07/070
Ozzie Albies ATL07/070
Austin Riley ATL07/070
Mauricio Dubón ATL07/070
Drake Baldwin ATL07/070
Luis García Jr. WSH07/051
Dylan Crews WSH07/051
Jorbit Vivas WSH07/050
Daylen Lile WSH07/050
James Wood WSH07/050
Curtis Mead WSH07/050

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

onBasePercentage
.417.421.167.136.375.158.250.304.286
Exit Velo
90.8397.5083.9884.8394.2984.2279.9892.4876.65
AVG
.417.421.200.150.375.176.250.304.286
sluggingPercentage
1.000.789.200.150.469.176.250.4351.143
OPS
1.4171.211.333.273.844.316.500.7391.429