Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.03
Edge
-5.4%Batter StrikeoutsEarned RunsHitsHits AllowedHits + Runs + RBIsHome RunsPitcher OutsPitcher StrikeoutsPitcher WalksRBIsRuns ScoredStolen BasesTotal BasesWalks
Last 20
5%1/20 over 0.5
Window avg
0.05
Median
0.0
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/10
L20
5%
1/20
2026
12%
6/50
Avg0.09
StreakL14
Tonight's matchup: Jared Jones (RHP)
Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam FB | 38.0% | 98.6 | .387 | .565 | 12.7% |
| Slider | 32.6% | 90.2 | .167 | .167 | 38.6% |
| Changeup | 17.8% | 93.4 | .077 | .077 | 31.9% |
| Curveball | 11.6% | 85.7 | .346 | .500 | 34.8% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Dominic Smith clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too
Mike Yastrzemski o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 75% · base 56% · n=8 · -108 dabble_us_dfs
Mike Yastrzemski o0.5 Total Bases
hits when he does 75% · base 56% · n=8 · -108 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Home Runs — last 20 vs 0.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Home Runs
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | +1149 | -1111 |
Line movement — Home Runs
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.
League vs PIT — Home Runs, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 2/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Mauricio Dubón ATL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Matt Olson ATL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Austin Riley ATL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jim Jarvis ATL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Michael Harris II ATL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Ozzie Albies ATL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Drake Baldwin ATL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Mike Yastrzemski ATL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Dylan Crews WSH | 07/05 | 1 | ✓ |
| Luis García Jr. WSH | 07/05 | 1 | ✓ |
| José Tena WSH | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| James Wood WSH | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Curtis Mead WSH | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Daylen Lile WSH | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
onBasePercentage
Exit Velo
AVG
sluggingPercentage
OPS