Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Willson Contreras

Boston Red Sox · C · Bats R

Tonight's line
1.5
Model proj
2.17
Edge
+23.5%
Trending splitsvs LHP 50%(20)
Last 15
55%6/11 over 2 · 4 push
Window avg
2.20
Median
2.0
L5
100%
4/4
L10
75%
6/8
L20
38%
6/16
2026
36%
27/74
Avg1.73
StreakW4

Tonight's matchup: Davis Martin (RHP)

Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Four-seam FB
26.0%
92.7.267.41127.8%
Sinker
17.9%
90.8.397.83610.7%
Changeup
14.8%
88.7.310.61941.8%
Slider
14.5%
85.3.297.54142.3%
Cutter
13.5%
87.0.222.38941.0%
Curveball
13.3%
80.7.118.17636.1%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Total Baseslast 15 vs 2

official box scores
0@ SEA06/212@ COL06/221@ COL06/232@ COL06/240vs NYY06/255vs NYY06/262vs NYY06/271vs NYY06/284vs WSH06/290vs WSH06/302vs WSH07/013@ LAA07/034@ LAA07/044@ LAA07/053@ CWS07/072

Tonight's odds — Total Bases

BookLineOverUnder
BetOnline1.5+136-179

Line movement — Total Bases

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs CWS Total Bases, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 8/14 would clear tonight's 1.5

Ceddanne Rafaela BOS07/075
Andruw Monasterio BOS07/075
Jarren Duran BOS07/073
Romy Gonzalez BOS07/072
Anthony Seigler BOS07/071
Connor Wong BOS07/071
Wilyer Abreu BOS07/070
Caleb Durbin BOS07/070
Chase DeLauter CLE07/055
Gabriel Arias CLE07/055
Travis Bazzana CLE07/052
Daniel Schneemann CLE07/052
Patrick Bailey CLE07/051
Cooper Ingle CLE07/051

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

AVG
.118.278.400.231.360.406.214.458.429
Exit Velo
69.6188.2195.6878.9791.6497.8586.6997.5193.43
onBasePercentage
.118.278.381.231.360.394.214.440.429
sluggingPercentage
.294.500.650.385.720.781.6431.042.821
OPS
.412.7781.000.6151.0801.152.8571.4401.250