Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Otto Lopez

Miami Marlins · 3B · Bats R

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.66
Edge
+9.9%
Last 20
60%12/20 over 0.5
Window avg
0.80
Median
1.0
L5
80%
4/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
60%
12/20
2026
50%
45/90
Avg0.50
StreakL1

Tonight's matchup: George Kirby (RHP)

Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Sweeper
29.9%
87.1.303.39427.6%
Four-seam FB
29.4%
96.7.378.6228.3%
Sinker
21.0%
96.9.418.6574.7%
Knuckle Curve
9.9%
83.8
Changeup
6.7%
88.7.268.39027.1%
Cutter
3.0%
93.2.333.40017.0%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Otto Lopez clears 0.5 Runs Scored, these hit too

Xavier Edwards o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 78% · base 73% · n=117 · -213 dabble_us_dfs
Kyle Stowers o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 71% · base 58% · n=92 · -196 dabble_us_dfs
Joe Mack o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 68% · base 55% · n=25 · -130 DraftKings
Liam Hicks o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 66% · base 57% · n=85 · -222 dabble_us_dfs

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Runs Scoredlast 20 vs 0.5

official box scores
1@ PIT06/140@ PHI06/150@ PHI06/161@ PHI06/170vs SF06/192vs SF06/200vs SF06/211vs TEX06/221vs TEX06/232vs TEX06/240@ STL06/261@ STL06/270@ STL06/281@ COL06/290@ COL07/012@ COL07/021@ OAK07/031@ OAK07/042@ OAK07/050vs SEA07/070.5

Tonight's odds — Runs Scored

BookLineOverUnder
dabble_us_dfs0.5+160-159

Line movement — Runs Scored

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs SEA Runs Scored, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 5/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Xavier Edwards MIA07/071
Liam Hicks MIA07/071
Javier Sanoja MIA07/071
Owen Caissie MIA07/071
Griffin Conine MIA07/071
Joe Mack MIA07/070
Kyle Stowers MIA07/070
Jakob Marsee MIA07/070
Alejandro Kirk TOR07/050
Luis Urías TOR07/050
Yohendrick Piñango TOR07/050
Daulton Varsho TOR07/050
Nathan Lukes TOR07/050
Sean Keys TOR07/050

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

onBasePercentage
.300.310.529.324.385.357.421.342.379
AVG
.300.321.529.324.405.370.444.342.379
Exit Velo
91.1096.9398.7493.3694.7189.9094.3295.1180.39
sluggingPercentage
.600.6071.000.618.622.556.611.474.448
OPS
.900.8971.529.941.974.8931.000.816.828