Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.07
Edge
-2.2%Batter StrikeoutsEarned RunsHitsHits AllowedHits + Runs + RBIsHome RunsPitcher OutsPitcher StrikeoutsPitcher WalksRBIsRuns ScoredStolen BasesTotal BasesWalks
Last 20
10%2/20 over 0.5
Window avg
0.10
Median
0.0
L5
0%
0/5
L10
10%
1/10
L20
10%
2/20
2026
6%
4/63
Avg0.12
StreakL9
Tonight's matchup: Dean Kremer (RHP)
Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Splitter | 39.4% | 82.5 | — | — | — |
| Four-seam FB | 21.3% | 93.5 | .296 | .352 | 11.7% |
| Sinker | 16.9% | 92.3 | .327 | .367 | 6.7% |
| Curveball | 14.2% | 77.2 | .000 | .000 | 23.5% |
| Cutter | 5.5% | 86.8 | .500 | .833 | 16.7% |
| Slider | 2.8% | 83.4 | .205 | .308 | 34.9% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Carson Kelly clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too
Ian Happ o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 84% · base 61% · n=19 · -159 dabble_us_dfs
Nico Hoerner o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 84% · base 74% · n=19 · -230 DraftKings
Seiya Suzuki o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 79% · base 64% · n=19 · -183 DraftKings
Dansby Swanson o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 74% · base 62% · n=19 · -147 DraftKings
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Home Runs — last 20 vs 0.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Home Runs
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | +993 | -909 |
Line movement — Home Runs
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.
League vs BAL — Home Runs, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 1/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Ian Happ CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Michael Conforto CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Michael Busch CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Nico Hoerner CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Dansby Swanson CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Alex Bregman CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Seiya Suzuki CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Miguel Amaya CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Spencer Steer CIN | 07/05 | 1 | ✓ |
| Elly De La Cruz CIN | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Noelvi Marte CIN | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Sal Stewart CIN | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Tyler Stephenson CIN | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
onBasePercentage
Exit Velo
AVG
sluggingPercentage
OPS