Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.97
Edge
+1.7%Batter StrikeoutsEarned RunsHitsHits AllowedHits + Runs + RBIsHome RunsPitcher OutsPitcher StrikeoutsPitcher WalksRBIsRuns ScoredStolen BasesTotal BasesWalks
Last 20
33%4/12 over 1 · 8 push
Window avg
0.80
Median
1.0
L5
50%
1/2
L10
40%
2/5
L20
33%
4/12
2026
40%
16/40
Avg0.83
Streak—
Tonight's matchup: Dean Kremer (RHP)
Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Splitter | 39.4% | 82.5 | — | — | — |
| Four-seam FB | 21.3% | 93.5 | .296 | .352 | 11.7% |
| Sinker | 16.9% | 92.3 | .327 | .367 | 6.7% |
| Curveball | 14.2% | 77.2 | .000 | .000 | 23.5% |
| Cutter | 5.5% | 86.8 | .500 | .833 | 16.7% |
| Slider | 2.8% | 83.4 | .205 | .308 | 34.9% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Carson Kelly clears 0.5 Hits, these hit too
Nico Hoerner o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 78% · base 74% · n=101 · -230 DraftKings
Dansby Swanson o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 68% · base 62% · n=100 · -147 DraftKings
Ian Happ o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 67% · base 61% · n=97 · -159 dabble_us_dfs
Michael Busch o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 63% · base 58% · n=98 · -185 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Hits — last 20 vs 1
official box scoresTonight's odds — Hits
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 0.5 | -183 | +137 |
| BetOnline | 0.5 | -189 | +143 |
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | -156 | +159 |
Line movement — Hits
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
BetOnlineDraftKingsdabble_us_dfs
League vs BAL — Hits, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 10/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Dansby Swanson CHC | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Alex Bregman CHC | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Miguel Amaya CHC | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Michael Conforto CHC | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Nico Hoerner CHC | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Seiya Suzuki CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Michael Busch CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Ian Happ CHC | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Tyler Stephenson CIN | 07/05 | 2 | ✓ |
| Sal Stewart CIN | 07/05 | 1 | ✓ |
| Edwin Arroyo CIN | 07/05 | 1 | ✓ |
| Spencer Steer CIN | 07/05 | 1 | ✓ |
| Eugenio Suárez CIN | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
onBasePercentage
Exit Velo
AVG
sluggingPercentage
OPS