Tonight's line
1.5
Model proj
1.84
Edge
+14.4%Last 20
60%12/20 over 1.5
Window avg
2.05
Median
2.0
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
60%
12/20
2026
44%
19/43
Avg1.46
StreakW1
Tonight's matchup: Davis Martin (RHP)
Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam FB | 26.0% | 92.7 | .265 | .373 | 23.6% |
| Sinker | 17.9% | 90.8 | .304 | .391 | 15.6% |
| Changeup | 14.8% | 88.7 | .265 | .559 | 30.9% |
| Slider | 14.5% | 85.3 | .283 | .500 | 29.8% |
| Cutter | 13.5% | 87.0 | .333 | .467 | 21.4% |
| Curveball | 13.3% | 80.7 | .192 | .308 | 28.3% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Ceddanne Rafaela clears 1.5 Total Bases, these hit too
Romy Gonzalez o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 65% · base 60% · n=65 · -186 DraftKings
Masataka Yoshida o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 64% · base 60% · n=74 · -179 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Total Bases — last 20 vs 1.5
home only · official box scoresTonight's odds — Total Bases
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 1.5 | +130 | -169 |
| dabble_us_dfs | 1.5 | +154 | -152 |
Line movement — Total Bases
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
BetOnlinedabble_us_dfs
League vs CWS — Total Bases, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 8/14 would clear tonight's 1.5
| Andruw Monasterio BOS | 07/07 | 5 | ✓ |
| Jarren Duran BOS | 07/07 | 3 | ✓ |
| Willson Contreras BOS | 07/07 | 3 | ✓ |
| Romy Gonzalez BOS | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Anthony Seigler BOS | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Connor Wong BOS | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Caleb Durbin BOS | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Wilyer Abreu BOS | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Chase DeLauter CLE | 07/05 | 5 | ✓ |
| Gabriel Arias CLE | 07/05 | 5 | ✓ |
| Travis Bazzana CLE | 07/05 | 2 | ✓ |
| Daniel Schneemann CLE | 07/05 | 2 | ✓ |
| Patrick Bailey CLE | 07/05 | 1 | ✗ |
| Cooper Ingle CLE | 07/05 | 1 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
OPS
AVG
onBasePercentage
sluggingPercentage
Exit Velo