Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.11
Edge
-0.2%Last 20
5%1/20 over 0.5
Window avg
0.05
Median
0.0
L5
20%
1/5
L10
10%
1/10
L20
5%
1/20
2026
10%
8/83
Avg0.10
StreakW1
Tonight's matchup: Davis Martin (RHP)
Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam FB | 26.0% | 92.7 | .265 | .373 | 23.6% |
| Sinker | 17.9% | 90.8 | .304 | .391 | 15.6% |
| Changeup | 14.8% | 88.7 | .265 | .559 | 30.9% |
| Slider | 14.5% | 85.3 | .283 | .500 | 29.8% |
| Cutter | 13.5% | 87.0 | .333 | .467 | 21.4% |
| Curveball | 13.3% | 80.7 | .192 | .308 | 28.3% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Ceddanne Rafaela clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too
Jarren Duran o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 76% · base 70% · n=37 · -156 dabble_us_dfs
Romy Gonzalez o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 74% · base 60% · n=19 · -186 DraftKings
Wilyer Abreu o0.5 Runs Scored
hits when he does 67% · base 38% · n=30 · +115 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Home Runs — last 20 vs 0.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Home Runs
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | +870 | -833 |
Line movement — Home Runs
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.
League vs CWS — Home Runs, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 3/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Andruw Monasterio BOS | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Wilyer Abreu BOS | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Romy Gonzalez BOS | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jarren Duran BOS | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Anthony Seigler BOS | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Willson Contreras BOS | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Caleb Durbin BOS | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Connor Wong BOS | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Chase DeLauter CLE | 07/05 | 1 | ✓ |
| Gabriel Arias CLE | 07/05 | 1 | ✓ |
| Steven Kwan CLE | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Kyle Manzardo CLE | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Daniel Schneemann CLE | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Travis Bazzana CLE | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
OPS
AVG
onBasePercentage
sluggingPercentage
Exit Velo