Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Ceddanne Rafaela

Boston Red Sox · CF · Bats R

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
1.17
Edge
+3.2%
Last 388
39%93/236 over 1 · 152 push
Window avg
0.93
Median
1.0
L5
100%
3/3
L10
63%
5/8
L20
58%
7/12
2026
51%
23/45
Avg0.93
StreakW1

Tonight's matchup: Davis Martin (RHP)

Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Four-seam FB
26.0%
92.7.265.37323.6%
Sinker
17.9%
90.8.304.39115.6%
Changeup
14.8%
88.7.265.55930.9%
Slider
14.5%
85.3.283.50029.8%
Cutter
13.5%
87.0.333.46721.4%
Curveball
13.3%
80.7.192.30828.3%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Ceddanne Rafaela clears 0.5 Hits, these hit too

Willson Contreras o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 75% · base 71% · n=60 · -189 dabble_us_dfs

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Hitslast 388 vs 1

official box scores
2vs BAL06/023vs BAL06/031vs BAL06/040@ NYY06/052@ NYY06/071@ TB06/080@ TB06/091@ TB06/103vs TEX06/122vs TEX06/130vs TEX06/142vs TOR06/161vs TOR06/171vs TOR06/181@ SEA06/191@ SEA06/210@ COL06/221@ COL06/233@ COL06/241vs NYY06/250vs NYY06/262vs NYY06/270vs NYY06/282vs WSH06/290vs WSH06/302vs WSH07/012@ LAA07/031@ LAA07/041@ LAA07/052@ CWS07/071

Tonight's odds — Hits

BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings0.5-235+174
BetOnline0.5-244+182
dabble_us_dfs0.5-208+209

Line movement — Hits

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

0.512:11 AM ET11:15 AM ET
BetOnlineDraftKingsdabble_us_dfs

League vs CWS Hits, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 12/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Willson Contreras BOS07/072
Andruw Monasterio BOS07/072
Jarren Duran BOS07/072
Romy Gonzalez BOS07/071
Connor Wong BOS07/071
Anthony Seigler BOS07/071
Caleb Durbin BOS07/070
Wilyer Abreu BOS07/070
Gabriel Arias CLE07/052
Chase DeLauter CLE07/052
Daniel Schneemann CLE07/052
Steven Kwan CLE07/051
Patrick Bailey CLE07/051
Cooper Ingle CLE07/051

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

OPS
.5561.667.5001.000.947.3611.1331.000.462
AVG
.278.556.167.381.342.139.400.333.231
onBasePercentage
.278.556.167.381.342.139.400.333.231
sluggingPercentage
.2781.111.333.619.605.222.733.667.231
Exit Velo
84.2897.3390.0388.5190.4589.7594.0090.9881.13