Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.16
Edge
+1.3%Batter StrikeoutsEarned RunsHitsHits AllowedHits + Runs + RBIsHome RunsPitcher OutsPitcher StrikeoutsPitcher WalksRBIsRuns ScoredStolen BasesTotal BasesWalks
Last 20
15%3/20 over 0.5
Window avg
0.15
Median
0.0
L5
20%
1/5
L10
20%
2/10
L20
15%
3/20
2026
20%
16/82
Avg0.13
StreakL3
Tonight's matchup: Michael McGreevy (RHP)
Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam FB | 25.7% | 91.6 | .341 | .600 | 19.8% |
| Changeup | 21.0% | 86.7 | .259 | .444 | 45.9% |
| Sinker | 16.5% | 90.4 | .259 | .463 | 12.9% |
| Cutter | 11.3% | 86.8 | .286 | .714 | 30.8% |
| Curveball | 11.2% | 77.9 | .143 | .250 | 38.2% |
| Sweeper | 10.2% | 81.4 | .318 | .773 | 34.8% |
| Slider | 4.1% | 83.4 | .205 | .410 | 30.7% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Jake Bauers clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too
Jackson Chourio o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 83% · base 71% · n=29 · -262 DraftKings
William Contreras o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 74% · base 66% · n=34 · -251 DraftKings
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Home Runs — last 20 vs 0.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Home Runs
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | +646 | -625 |
Line movement — Home Runs
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.
League vs STL — Home Runs, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 1/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Joey Ortiz MIL | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Sal Frelick MIL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Andrew Vaughn MIL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Christian Yelich MIL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Cooper Pratt MIL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Garrett Mitchell MIL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jackson Chourio MIL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Sal Frelick MIL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Brice Turang MIL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Joey Ortiz MIL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Luis Lara MIL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Christian Yelich MIL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Brice Turang MIL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Cooper Pratt MIL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
onBasePercentage
Exit Velo
AVG
sluggingPercentage
OPS