Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.22
Edge
-3.4%Last 20
15%3/20 over 0.5
Window avg
0.15
Median
0.0
L5
0%
0/5
L10
10%
1/10
L20
15%
3/20
2026
21%
19/92
Avg0.22
StreakL7
Tonight's matchup: Colin Rea (RHP)
Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam FB | 41.9% | 93.7 | .264 | .598 | 24.2% |
| Changeup | 17.8% | 87.7 | .250 | .528 | 28.8% |
| Slider | 11.1% | 86.0 | .297 | .486 | 38.9% |
| Sweeper | 9.2% | 83.0 | .188 | .313 | 33.9% |
| Sinker | 9.1% | 92.4 | .309 | .481 | 16.0% |
| Cutter | 6.0% | 87.0 | .150 | .300 | 37.5% |
| Curveball | 5.0% | 79.8 | .186 | .302 | 33.8% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Pete Alonso clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too
Jackson Holliday o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 70% · base 41% · n=10 · -128 dabble_us_dfs
Jackson Holliday o0.5 Runs Scored
hits when he does 70% · base 35% · n=10 · +151 dabble_us_dfs
Jackson Holliday o0.5 Total Bases
hits when he does 70% · base 41% · n=10 · -156 BetOnline
Blaze Alexander o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 67% · base 59% · n=15 · -192 BetOnline
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Home Runs — last 20 vs 0.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Home Runs
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | +326 | -323 |
Line movement — Home Runs
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.
League vs CHC — Home Runs, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 1/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Samuel Basallo BAL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Adley Rutschman BAL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Gunnar Henderson BAL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Dylan Beavers BAL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Coby Mayo BAL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jackson Holliday BAL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Blaze Alexander BAL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Taylor Ward BAL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jordan Walker STL | 07/05 | 1 | ✓ |
| Masyn Winn STL | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| José Fermín STL | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Bryan Torres STL | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Lars Nootbaar STL | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| JJ Wetherholt STL | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
sluggingPercentage
Exit Velo
AVG
onBasePercentage
OPS