Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.99
Edge
-4.4%Last 5
80%4/5 over 0.5
Window avg
0.80
Median
1.0
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
67%
8/12
2026
100%
1/1
Avg0.67
StreakW2
Tonight's matchup: Colin Rea (RHP)
Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam FB | 41.9% | 93.7 | .264 | .598 | 24.2% |
| Changeup | 17.8% | 87.7 | .250 | .528 | 28.8% |
| Slider | 11.1% | 86.0 | .297 | .486 | 38.9% |
| Sweeper | 9.2% | 83.0 | .188 | .313 | 33.9% |
| Sinker | 9.1% | 92.4 | .309 | .481 | 16.0% |
| Cutter | 6.0% | 87.0 | .150 | .300 | 37.5% |
| Curveball | 5.0% | 79.8 | .186 | .302 | 33.8% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Pete Alonso clears 0.5 Hits, these hit too
Taylor Ward o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 68% · base 64% · n=62 · -196 dabble_us_dfs
Blaze Alexander o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 64% · base 59% · n=45 · -192 BetOnline
Blaze Alexander o0.5 Total Bases
hits when he does 64% · base 59% · n=45 · -185 BetOnline
Samuel Basallo o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 63% · base 59% · n=52 · -208 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Hits — last 5 vs 0.5
vs CHC only · official box scoresTonight's odds — Hits
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 0.5 | -251 | +185 |
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | -227 | +232 |
| BetOnline | 0.5 | -250 | +188 |
Line movement — Hits
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
BetOnlineDraftKingsdabble_us_dfs
League vs CHC — Hits, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 9/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Adley Rutschman BAL | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Samuel Basallo BAL | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Gunnar Henderson BAL | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Blaze Alexander BAL | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Jackson Holliday BAL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Taylor Ward BAL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Coby Mayo BAL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Dylan Beavers BAL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| JJ Wetherholt STL | 07/05 | 2 | ✓ |
| Alec Burleson STL | 07/05 | 2 | ✓ |
| Nathan Church STL | 07/05 | 1 | ✓ |
| Masyn Winn STL | 07/05 | 1 | ✓ |
| Jordan Walker STL | 07/05 | 1 | ✓ |
| Iván Herrera STL | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
sluggingPercentage
Exit Velo
AVG
onBasePercentage
OPS