Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.99
Edge
+1.0%Last 20
50%7/14 over 1 · 6 push
Window avg
1.20
Median
1.0
L5
67%
2/3
L10
50%
3/6
L20
50%
7/14
2026
37%
17/46
Avg0.83
Streak—
Tonight's matchup: Colin Rea (RHP)
Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam FB | 41.9% | 93.7 | .283 | .472 | 30.1% |
| Changeup | 17.8% | 87.7 | .292 | .292 | 30.2% |
| Slider | 11.1% | 86.0 | .333 | .444 | 35.0% |
| Sweeper | 9.2% | 83.0 | .368 | .526 | 25.0% |
| Sinker | 9.1% | 92.4 | .306 | .367 | 9.4% |
| Cutter | 6.0% | 87.0 | .333 | .667 | 20.6% |
| Curveball | 5.0% | 79.8 | .294 | .353 | 36.7% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Blaze Alexander clears 0.5 Hits, these hit too
Pete Alonso o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 71% · base 64% · n=41 · -227 dabble_us_dfs
Adley Rutschman o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 68% · base 61% · n=28 · -227 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Hits — last 20 vs 1
official box scoresTonight's odds — Hits
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 0.5 | -192 | +146 |
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | -196 | +198 |
Line movement — Hits
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
BetOnlinedabble_us_dfs
League vs CHC — Hits, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 9/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Adley Rutschman BAL | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Gunnar Henderson BAL | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Samuel Basallo BAL | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Pete Alonso BAL | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Dylan Beavers BAL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Taylor Ward BAL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jackson Holliday BAL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Coby Mayo BAL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Alec Burleson STL | 07/05 | 2 | ✓ |
| JJ Wetherholt STL | 07/05 | 2 | ✓ |
| Masyn Winn STL | 07/05 | 1 | ✓ |
| Nathan Church STL | 07/05 | 1 | ✓ |
| Jordan Walker STL | 07/05 | 1 | ✓ |
| Lars Nootbaar STL | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
onBasePercentage
AVG
Exit Velo
sluggingPercentage
OPS