Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.04
Edge
-6.8%Trending splitsvs LHP 0%(22)
Last 20
5%1/20 over 0.5
Window avg
0.05
Median
0.0
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/10
L20
5%
1/20
2026
8%
7/85
Avg0.15
StreakL19
Tonight's matchup: Tyler Phillips (RHP)
Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker | 25.2% | 95.8 | .266 | .313 | 8.1% |
| Sweeper | 24.1% | 84.2 | .267 | .533 | 33.3% |
| Splitter | 24.0% | 87.4 | .176 | .176 | 20.0% |
| Curveball | 16.5% | 83.6 | .214 | .321 | 32.8% |
| Four-seam FB | 9.1% | 96.3 | .270 | .430 | 7.5% |
| Slider | 1.1% | 88.7 | .182 | .295 | 34.4% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Josh Naylor clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too
Dominic Canzone o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 68% · base 51% · n=19 · -238 DraftKings
Cole Young o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 67% · base 57% · n=12 · -179 dabble_us_dfs
Randy Arozarena o0.5 Runs Scored
hits when he does 60% · base 48% · n=20 · +106 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Home Runs — last 20 vs 0.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Home Runs
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | +808 | -769 |
Line movement — Home Runs
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.
League vs MIA — Home Runs, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 2/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Cole Young SEA | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Randy Arozarena SEA | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Victor Robles SEA | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Cal Raleigh SEA | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| J.P. Crawford SEA | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Luke Raley SEA | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Colt Emerson SEA | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Dominic Canzone SEA | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jonah Heim OAK | 07/05 | 1 | ✓ |
| Lawrence Butler OAK | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Joshua Kuroda-Grauer OAK | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Henry Bolte OAK | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Max Muncy OAK | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Nick Kurtz OAK | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
OPS
AVG
onBasePercentage
sluggingPercentage
Exit Velo