Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Josh Naylor

Seattle Mariners · 1B · Bats L

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.96
Edge
-6.0%
Last 207
69%142/207 over 0.5
Window avg
1.04
Median
1.0
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
55%
11/20
2026
58%
25/43
Avg1.04
StreakW2

Hitslast 207 vs 0.5

home only · official box scores
3vs OAK04/200vs OAK04/213vs OAK04/221vs KC05/011vs KC05/021vs KC05/032vs ATL05/042vs ATL05/051vs ATL05/061vs SD05/152vs SD05/160vs SD05/173vs CWS05/180vs CWS05/190vs CWS05/201vs AZ05/290vs AZ05/301vs AZ05/311vs NYM06/010vs NYM06/031vs BAL06/181vs BOS06/191vs BOS06/200vs BOS06/210vs LAA06/292vs LAA06/300vs LAA07/020vs TOR07/031vs TOR07/041vs TOR07/050.5

Tonight's odds — Hits

BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings0.5-258+190

Line movement — Hits

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs MIA Hits, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 11/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Cal Raleigh SEA07/072
Randy Arozarena SEA07/072
Cole Young SEA07/071
J.P. Crawford SEA07/071
Luke Raley SEA07/071
Dominic Canzone SEA07/070
Colt Emerson SEA07/070
Victor Robles SEA07/070
Jonah Heim OAK07/052
Zack Gelof OAK07/051
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer OAK07/051
Carlos Cortes OAK07/051
Brian Serven OAK07/051
Lawrence Butler OAK07/051

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

Exit Velo
91.8887.9781.2393.3191.0483.8185.3886.5887.01
sluggingPercentage
.217.667.391.321.500.643.304.379.364
AVG
.217.467.217.179.281.357.304.241.091
OPS
.4351.133.609.500.7811.000.609.621.455
onBasePercentage
.217.467.217.179.281.357.304.241.091