Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Josh Naylor

Seattle Mariners · 1B · Bats L

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.96
Edge
-6.0%
Last 20
70%14/20 over 0.5
Window avg
0.90
Median
1.0
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
70%
14/20
2026
66%
56/85
Avg1.00
StreakW3

Tonight's matchup: Tyler Phillips (RHP)

Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Sinker
25.2%
95.8.266.3138.1%
Sweeper
24.1%
84.2.267.53333.3%
Splitter
24.0%
87.4.176.17620.0%
Curveball
16.5%
83.6.214.32132.8%
Four-seam FB
9.1%
96.3.270.4307.5%
Slider
1.1%
88.7.182.29534.4%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Hitslast 20 vs 0.5

official box scores
1@ WSH06/120@ WSH06/131@ WSH06/141vs BAL06/181vs BOS06/191vs BOS06/200vs BOS06/212@ PIT06/232@ PIT06/241@ PIT06/250@ CLE06/261@ CLE06/272@ CLE06/280vs LAA06/292vs LAA06/300vs LAA07/020vs TOR07/031vs TOR07/041vs TOR07/051@ MIA07/070.5

Tonight's odds — Hits

BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings0.5-258+190
dabble_us_dfs0.5-233+234

Line movement — Hits

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

0.512:10 AM ET11:15 AM ET
DraftKingsdabble_us_dfs

League vs MIA Hits, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 11/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Randy Arozarena SEA07/072
Cal Raleigh SEA07/072
Luke Raley SEA07/071
J.P. Crawford SEA07/071
Cole Young SEA07/071
Victor Robles SEA07/070
Colt Emerson SEA07/070
Dominic Canzone SEA07/070
Jonah Heim OAK07/052
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer OAK07/051
Carlos Cortes OAK07/051
Lawrence Butler OAK07/051
Brian Serven OAK07/051
Zack Gelof OAK07/051

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

OPS
.4351.133.609.500.7811.000.609.621.455
AVG
.217.467.217.179.281.357.304.241.091
onBasePercentage
.217.467.217.179.281.357.304.241.091
sluggingPercentage
.217.667.391.321.500.643.304.379.364
Exit Velo
91.8887.9781.2393.3191.0483.8185.3886.5887.01