Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Josh Naylor

Seattle Mariners · 1B · Bats L

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.96
Edge
-6.0%
All 103 games
69%71/103 over 0.5
Window avg
1.04
Median
1.0
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
75%
15/20
2026
68%
15/22
Avg1.04
StreakL2

Tonight's matchup: Tyler Phillips (RHP)

Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Sinker
25.2%
95.8.266.3138.1%
Sweeper
24.1%
84.2.267.53333.3%
Splitter
24.0%
87.4.176.17620.0%
Curveball
16.5%
83.6.214.32132.8%
Four-seam FB
9.1%
96.3.270.4307.5%
Slider
1.1%
88.7.182.29534.4%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Hitsall 103 games vs 0.5

official box scores
1@ CLE08/292@ ATL09/073vs STL09/091vs LAA09/132@ KC09/171@ HOU09/200vs DET10/053vs DET10/100vs CLE03/280vs NYY03/301vs NYY03/312@ LAA04/030vs OAK04/212@ STL04/250@ MIN04/271vs KC05/011vs KC05/031vs ATL05/061@ CWS05/093vs CWS05/180vs CWS05/192@ OAK05/262@ OAK05/272@ DET06/051@ BAL06/091@ WSH06/141vs BOS06/191vs BOS06/200vs BOS06/210@ CLE06/260.5

Tonight's odds — Hits

BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings0.5-258+190
dabble_us_dfs0.5-233+234

Line movement — Hits

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

0.512:10 AM ET11:15 AM ET
DraftKingsdabble_us_dfs

League vs MIA Hits, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 11/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Cal Raleigh SEA07/072
Randy Arozarena SEA07/072
Cole Young SEA07/071
Luke Raley SEA07/071
J.P. Crawford SEA07/071
Colt Emerson SEA07/070
Victor Robles SEA07/070
Dominic Canzone SEA07/070
Jonah Heim OAK07/052
Carlos Cortes OAK07/051
Brian Serven OAK07/051
Lawrence Butler OAK07/051
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer OAK07/051
Zack Gelof OAK07/051

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

OPS
.4351.133.609.500.7811.000.609.621.455
AVG
.217.467.217.179.281.357.304.241.091
onBasePercentage
.217.467.217.179.281.357.304.241.091
sluggingPercentage
.217.667.391.321.500.643.304.379.364
Exit Velo
91.8887.9781.2393.3191.0483.8185.3886.5887.01