Tonight's line
1.5
Model proj
2.25
Edge
+3.2%Last 20
40%8/20 over 1.5
Window avg
2.20
Median
1.0
L5
60%
3/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
40%
8/20
2026
50%
30/60
Avg2.06
StreakL2
Tonight's matchup: Foster Griffin (LHP)
Bats LeftThrows LeftSame-side matchup
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cutter | 32.1% | 88.1 | .267 | .600 | 18.6% |
| Four-seam FB | 17.1% | 91.5 | .292 | .652 | 20.6% |
| Sweeper | 14.5% | 79.8 | .250 | .600 | 15.2% |
| Curveball | 10.5% | 77.8 | .343 | .771 | 27.3% |
| Changeup | 10.4% | 82.4 | .298 | .489 | 17.4% |
| Sinker | 10.3% | 91.2 | .357 | .643 | 11.9% |
| Splitter | 5.1% | 81.2 | .412 | .412 | 26.7% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Yordan Alvarez clears 1.5 Total Bases, these hit too
Spencer Arrighetti o15.5 Pitcher Outs
hits when he does 76% · base 59% · n=21 · -111 DraftKings
Spencer Arrighetti o4.5 Pitcher Strikeouts
hits when he does 76% · base 68% · n=21 · -131 DraftKings
Jose Altuve o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 73% · base 69% · n=114 · -240 DraftKings
Yainer Diaz o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 72% · base 68% · n=93 · -230 DraftKings
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Total Bases — last 20 vs 1.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Total Bases
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 1.5 | -126 | -106 |
| PrizePicks | 1.5 | -137 | -137 |
| Underdog | 1.5 | -137 | -137 |
| Betr Picks | 1.5 | -137 | -137 |
| Bovada | 1.5 | -125 | -105 |
Line movement — Total Bases
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
DraftKingsBovadaUnderdogPrizePicksBetr Picks
League vs WSH — Total Bases, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 7/14 would clear tonight's 1.5
| Jose Altuve HOU | 07/07 | 4 | ✓ |
| Christian Vázquez HOU | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Nick Allen HOU | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Isaac Paredes HOU | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Brice Matthews HOU | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Christian Walker HOU | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Zach Dezenzo HOU | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Cam Smith HOU | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Yainer Diaz HOU | 07/06 | 5 | ✓ |
| Brice Matthews HOU | 07/06 | 5 | ✓ |
| Jose Altuve HOU | 07/06 | 4 | ✓ |
| Christian Walker HOU | 07/06 | 3 | ✓ |
| Braden Shewmake HOU | 07/06 | 3 | ✓ |
| Cam Smith HOU | 07/06 | 2 | ✓ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
OPS
AVG
onBasePercentage
sluggingPercentage
Exit Velo