Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Yordan Alvarez

Houston Astros · DH · Bats L

Tonight's line
1.5
Model proj
2.25
Edge
+3.2%
Last 20
40%8/20 over 1.5
Window avg
1.90
Median
1.0
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
40%
8/20
2026
46%
42/92
Avg2.06
StreakL3

Parlay pairs — when Yordan Alvarez clears 1.5 Total Bases, these hit too

Spencer Arrighetti o15.5 Pitcher Outs
hits when he does 76% · base 59% · n=21 · -111 DraftKings
Spencer Arrighetti o4.5 Pitcher Strikeouts
hits when he does 76% · base 68% · n=21 · -131 DraftKings
Jose Altuve o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 73% · base 69% · n=114 · -240 DraftKings
Yainer Diaz o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 72% · base 68% · n=93 · -230 DraftKings

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Total Baseslast 20 vs 1.5

official box scores
3vs DET06/151vs DET06/162vs DET06/171vs CLE06/190vs CLE06/204vs CLE06/211@ TOR06/223@ TOR06/230@ TOR06/240@ DET06/250@ DET06/260@ DET06/280vs MIN06/296vs MIN06/303vs MIN07/014vs TB07/039vs TB07/040vs TB07/051@ WSH07/060@ WSH07/071.5

Tonight's odds — Total Bases

BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings1.5-126-106
Bovada1.5-125-105

Line movement — Total Bases

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

1.512:11 AM ET12:11 AM ET
DraftKingsBovada

League vs WSH Total Bases, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 7/14 would clear tonight's 1.5

Jose Altuve HOU07/074
Brice Matthews HOU07/071
Christian Vázquez HOU07/071
Nick Allen HOU07/071
Isaac Paredes HOU07/071
Christian Walker HOU07/071
Cam Smith HOU07/070
Zach Dezenzo HOU07/070
Yainer Diaz HOU07/065
Brice Matthews HOU07/065
Jose Altuve HOU07/064
Christian Walker HOU07/063
Braden Shewmake HOU07/063
Cam Smith HOU07/062

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

onBasePercentage
.400.296.200.333.318.367.375.381.586
Exit Velo
97.0097.3392.0393.1698.0895.8195.2496.7099.48
sluggingPercentage
.182.667.429.478.818.933.7501.049.931
AVG
.182.296.214.304.318.367.375.390.586
OPS
.533.963.600.7921.1361.3001.1251.4051.517