Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.38
Edge
+4.6%Last 20
15%3/20 over 0.5
Window avg
0.15
Median
0.0
L5
20%
1/5
L10
20%
2/10
L20
15%
3/20
2026
19%
6/32
Avg0.26
StreakL3
Tonight's matchup: Foster Griffin (LHP)
Bats LeftThrows LeftSame-side matchup
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cutter | 32.1% | 88.1 | .267 | .600 | 18.6% |
| Four-seam FB | 17.1% | 91.5 | .292 | .652 | 20.6% |
| Sweeper | 14.5% | 79.8 | .250 | .600 | 15.2% |
| Curveball | 10.5% | 77.8 | .343 | .771 | 27.3% |
| Changeup | 10.4% | 82.4 | .298 | .489 | 17.4% |
| Sinker | 10.3% | 91.2 | .357 | .643 | 11.9% |
| Splitter | 5.1% | 81.2 | .412 | .412 | 26.7% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Yordan Alvarez clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too
Zach Dezenzo o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 67% · base 47% · n=12 · -143 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Home Runs — last 20 vs 0.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Home Runs
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | +276 | -270 |
Line movement — Home Runs
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.
League vs WSH — Home Runs, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 4/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Jose Altuve HOU | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Isaac Paredes HOU | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Cam Smith HOU | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Christian Walker HOU | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Brice Matthews HOU | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Zach Dezenzo HOU | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Christian Vázquez HOU | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Nick Allen HOU | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jose Altuve HOU | 07/06 | 1 | ✓ |
| Yainer Diaz HOU | 07/06 | 1 | ✓ |
| Brice Matthews HOU | 07/06 | 1 | ✓ |
| Christian Walker HOU | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| LaMonte Wade Jr. HOU | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Isaac Paredes HOU | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
OPS
AVG
onBasePercentage
sluggingPercentage
Exit Velo