Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Esmerlyn Valdez

Pittsburgh Pirates · RF · Bats R

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.24
Edge
+7.0%
Last 20
25%5/20 over 0.5
Window avg
0.25
Median
0.0
L5
0%
0/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
25%
5/20
2026
26%
6/23
Avg0.26
StreakL7

Tonight's matchup: Grant Holmes (RHP)

Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Slider
38.0%
85.3.400.80045.0%
Four-seam FB
31.7%
94.2.381.95239.1%
Sinker
10.3%
93.1.438.62522.5%
Curveball
8.1%
82.9.333.83325.0%
Cutter
6.5%
92.2
Changeup
5.5%
89.6.143.14380.0%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Home Runslast 20 vs 0.5

official box scores
1vs CHC05/260vs CHC05/270vs LAD06/110vs MIA06/120@ OAK06/150@ OAK06/170@ COL06/190vs SEA06/240vs SEA06/251vs CIN06/261vs CIN06/271vs CIN06/281@ PHI06/290@ PHI06/300@ PHI07/010@ PHI07/020@ WSH07/030@ WSH07/040@ WSH07/050vs ATL07/070.5

Tonight's odds — Home Runs

BookLineOverUnder
dabble_us_dfs0.5+619-588

Line movement — Home Runs

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs ATL Home Runs, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 3/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Ryan O'Hearn PIT07/073
Bryan Reynolds PIT07/070
Nick Gonzales PIT07/070
Tyler Callihan PIT07/070
Brandon Lowe PIT07/070
Jared Triolo PIT07/070
Henry Davis PIT07/070
Jake Mangum PIT07/070
Carson Benge NYM07/061
Juan Soto NYM07/061
A.J. Ewing NYM07/060
Jared Young NYM07/060
Ronny Mauricio NYM07/060
Brett Baty NYM07/060

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

AVG
.000.250.000.600.800.417.000.375.250
Exit Velo
104.9589.63-84.66103.7292.3384.3691.8797.54
onBasePercentage
.000.250.000.600.800.417.000.333.250
sluggingPercentage
.000.625.000.8002.2001.000.000.750.250
OPS
.000.875.0001.4003.0001.417.0001.000.500