Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Esmerlyn Valdez

Pittsburgh Pirates · RF · Bats R

Tonight's line
1.5
Model proj
1.29
Edge
Trending splitsAway 80%(5)Home 50%(6)
Last 20
56%5/9 over 1 · 11 push
Window avg
1.20
Median
1.0
L5
100%
2/2
L10
40%
2/5
L20
56%
5/9
2026
64%
7/11
Avg1.26
Streak

Tonight's matchup: Grant Holmes (RHP)

Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Slider
38.0%
85.3.400.80045.0%
Four-seam FB
31.7%
94.2.381.95239.1%
Sinker
10.3%
93.1.438.62522.5%
Curveball
8.1%
82.9.333.83325.0%
Cutter
6.5%
92.2
Changeup
5.5%
89.6.143.14380.0%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Batter Strikeoutslast 20 vs 1

official box scores
2vs CHC05/262vs CHC05/270vs LAD06/111vs MIA06/121@ OAK06/151@ OAK06/171@ COL06/191vs SEA06/243vs SEA06/251vs CIN06/260vs CIN06/270vs CIN06/281@ PHI06/290@ PHI06/301@ PHI07/011@ PHI07/021@ WSH07/032@ WSH07/044@ WSH07/051vs ATL07/071

Tonight's odds — Batter Strikeouts

BookLineOverUnder
Betr Picks1.5-137

Line movement — Batter Strikeouts

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs ATL Batter Strikeouts, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 2/14 would clear tonight's 1.5

Brandon Lowe PIT07/071
Henry Davis PIT07/071
Tyler Callihan PIT07/070
Ryan O'Hearn PIT07/070
Bryan Reynolds PIT07/070
Jake Mangum PIT07/070
Jared Triolo PIT07/070
Nick Gonzales PIT07/070
A.J. Ewing NYM07/063
Brett Baty NYM07/063
Bo Bichette NYM07/061
Jared Young NYM07/061
Francisco Lindor NYM07/061
Carson Benge NYM07/060

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

AVG
.000.250.000.600.800.417.000.375.250
Exit Velo
104.9589.63-84.66103.7292.3384.3691.8797.54
onBasePercentage
.000.250.000.600.800.417.000.333.250
sluggingPercentage
.000.625.000.8002.2001.000.000.750.250
OPS
.000.875.0001.4003.0001.417.0001.000.500