Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Esmerlyn Valdez

Pittsburgh Pirates · RF · Bats R

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
1.08
Edge
+9.5%
Last 5
80%4/5 over 0.5
Window avg
1.20
Median
1.0
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
53%
8/15
2026
53%
8/15
Avg0.87
StreakW1

Parlay pairs — when Esmerlyn Valdez clears 0.5 Hits, these hit too

Nick Gonzales o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 79% · base 74% · n=14 · -232 DraftKings

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Hitslast 5 vs 0.5

official box scores
2@ PHI06/291@ PHI07/012@ PHI07/020@ WSH07/051vs ATL07/070.5

Tonight's odds — Hits

BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings0.5-153+115

Line movement — Hits

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs ATL Hits, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 12/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Ryan O'Hearn PIT07/074
Brandon Lowe PIT07/073
Nick Gonzales PIT07/072
Tyler Callihan PIT07/072
Jake Mangum PIT07/071
Jared Triolo PIT07/071
Henry Davis PIT07/070
Bryan Reynolds PIT07/070
Francisco Alvarez NYM07/062
Carson Benge NYM07/062
Bo Bichette NYM07/062
Jared Young NYM07/061
Ronny Mauricio NYM07/061
Brett Baty NYM07/061

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

AVG
.000.250.000.600.800.417.000.375.250
OPS
.000.875.0001.4003.0001.417.0001.000.500
Exit Velo
104.9589.63-84.66103.7292.3384.7391.8797.54
sluggingPercentage
.000.625.000.8002.2001.000.000.750.250
onBasePercentage
.000.250.000.600.800.417.000.333.250