Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
1.08
Edge
+9.5%Last 15
53%8/15 over 0.5
Window avg
0.87
Median
1.0
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
53%
8/15
2026
53%
8/15
Avg0.87
StreakW1
Tonight's matchup: Grant Holmes (RHP)
Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slider | 38.0% | 85.3 | .400 | .800 | 45.0% |
| Four-seam FB | 31.7% | 94.2 | .381 | .952 | 39.1% |
| Sinker | 10.3% | 93.1 | .438 | .625 | 22.5% |
| Curveball | 8.1% | 82.9 | .333 | .833 | 25.0% |
| Cutter | 6.5% | 92.2 | — | — | — |
| Changeup | 5.5% | 89.6 | .143 | .143 | 80.0% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Esmerlyn Valdez clears 0.5 Hits, these hit too
Nick Gonzales o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 79% · base 74% · n=14 · -222 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Hits — last 15 vs 0.5
official box scoresLine movement — Hits
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
DraftKingsdabble_us_dfs
League vs ATL — Hits, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 12/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Ryan O'Hearn PIT | 07/07 | 4 | ✓ |
| Brandon Lowe PIT | 07/07 | 3 | ✓ |
| Tyler Callihan PIT | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Nick Gonzales PIT | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Jared Triolo PIT | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Jake Mangum PIT | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Henry Davis PIT | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Francisco Alvarez NYM | 07/06 | 2 | ✓ |
| Carson Benge NYM | 07/06 | 2 | ✓ |
| Bo Bichette NYM | 07/06 | 2 | ✓ |
| Juan Soto NYM | 07/06 | 1 | ✓ |
| Brett Baty NYM | 07/06 | 1 | ✓ |
| Ronny Mauricio NYM | 07/06 | 1 | ✓ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
AVG
Exit Velo
onBasePercentage
sluggingPercentage
OPS