Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Esmerlyn Valdez

Pittsburgh Pirates · RF · Bats R

Tonight's line
1.5
Model proj
1.29
Edge
Last 8
25%2/8 over 1.5
Window avg
1.00
Median
1.0
L5
20%
1/5
L10
25%
2/8
L20
25%
2/8
2026
25%
2/8
Avg1.00
StreakW1

Tonight's matchup: Grant Holmes (RHP)

Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Slider
38.0%
85.3.400.80045.0%
Four-seam FB
31.7%
94.2.381.95239.1%
Sinker
10.3%
93.1.438.62522.5%
Curveball
8.1%
82.9.333.83325.0%
Cutter
6.5%
92.2
Changeup
5.5%
89.6.143.14380.0%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Batter Strikeoutslast 8 vs 1.5

official box scores
1@ TOR05/232vs CHC05/260vs LAD06/111@ COL06/191vs CIN06/260@ PHI06/301@ WSH07/032@ WSH07/041.5

Tonight's odds — Batter Strikeouts

BookLineOverUnder
Betr Picks1.5-137

Line movement — Batter Strikeouts

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs ATL Batter Strikeouts, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 2/14 would clear tonight's 1.5

Henry Davis PIT07/071
Brandon Lowe PIT07/071
Bryan Reynolds PIT07/070
Ryan O'Hearn PIT07/070
Jake Mangum PIT07/070
Tyler Callihan PIT07/070
Nick Gonzales PIT07/070
Jared Triolo PIT07/070
A.J. Ewing NYM07/063
Brett Baty NYM07/063
Francisco Lindor NYM07/061
Bo Bichette NYM07/061
Jared Young NYM07/061
Carson Benge NYM07/060

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

AVG
.000.250.000.600.800.417.000.375.250
Exit Velo
104.9589.63-84.66103.7292.3384.3691.8797.54
onBasePercentage
.000.250.000.600.800.417.000.333.250
sluggingPercentage
.000.625.000.8002.2001.000.000.750.250
OPS
.000.875.0001.4003.0001.417.0001.000.500