Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Kazuma Okamoto

Toronto Blue Jays · 3B · Bats R

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.26
Edge
+9.8%
Last 20
30%6/20 over 0.5
Window avg
0.30
Median
0.0
L5
40%
2/5
L10
20%
2/10
L20
30%
6/20
2026
22%
20/89
Avg0.24
StreakW1

Tonight's matchup: Logan Webb (RHP)

Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Sinker
31.6%
92.2.214.42924.1%
Changeup
24.0%
86.1.182.31834.0%
Sweeper
19.2%
84.2.206.41241.3%
Four-seam FB
13.2%
92.4.301.60229.6%
Cutter
12.0%
89.9.053.05345.0%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Kazuma Okamoto clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too

Ernie Clement o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 79% · base 74% · n=19 · -217 dabble_us_dfs
Nathan Lukes o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 71% · base 64% · n=14 · -198 DraftKings
Andrés Giménez o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 67% · base 56% · n=18 · -120 dabble_us_dfs

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Home Runslast 20 vs 0.5

official box scores
0@ BOS06/160@ BOS06/170@ BOS06/180@ CHC06/191@ CHC06/201vs HOU06/220vs HOU06/230vs HOU06/241vs TEX06/251vs TEX06/260vs TEX06/270vs TEX06/280vs NYM06/290vs NYM07/010@ SEA07/030@ SEA07/040@ SEA07/051@ SF07/060@ SF07/071@ SF07/080.5

Tonight's odds — Home Runs

BookLineOverUnder
dabble_us_dfs0.5+667-667

Line movement — Home Runs

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs SF Home Runs, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 1/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

George Springer TOR07/080
Andrés Giménez TOR07/080
Jonatan Clase TOR07/080
Nathan Lukes TOR07/080
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR07/080
Ernie Clement TOR07/080
Alejandro Kirk TOR07/080
Daulton Varsho TOR07/080
Jonatan Clase TOR07/071
Sean Keys TOR07/070
Brandon Valenzuela TOR07/070
Nathan Lukes TOR07/070
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR07/070
Andrés Giménez TOR07/070

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

Exit Velo
91.4493.8996.5085.8296.3795.74103.1693.1489.50
AVG
.231.174.200.158.378.382.429.277.267
sluggingPercentage
.462.348.350.158.595.9711.571.574.267
onBasePercentage
.231.174.200.158.368.400.400.277.267
OPS
.692.522.550.316.9471.3431.867.851.533