Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.08
Edge
+0.5%Last 20
5%1/20 over 0.5
Window avg
0.05
Median
0.0
L5
20%
1/5
L10
10%
1/10
L20
5%
1/20
2026
8%
7/88
Avg0.06
StreakL4
Tonight's matchup: Jake Bennett (LHP)
Bats RightThrows LeftPlatoon edge: batter
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam FB | 33.1% | 93.0 | .244 | .415 | 16.9% |
| Sinker | 27.9% | 92.5 | .342 | .418 | 9.2% |
| Changeup | 26.0% | 83.6 | .289 | .333 | 34.3% |
| Sweeper | 5.4% | 79.5 | .087 | .130 | 25.0% |
| Curveball | 4.9% | 79.2 | .133 | .200 | 21.6% |
| Cutter | 2.8% | 85.2 | .250 | .300 | 18.0% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Chase Meidroth clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too
Miguel Vargas o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 73% · base 62% · n=11 · -208 dabble_us_dfs
Miguel Vargas o0.5 Runs Scored
hits when he does 73% · base 48% · n=11 · -108 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Home Runs — last 20 vs 0.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Home Runs
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | +1246 | -1111 |
Line movement — Home Runs
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.
League vs BOS — Home Runs, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 1/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Sam Antonacci CWS | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Tristan Peters CWS | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Luisangel Acuña CWS | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Miguel Vargas CWS | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Junior Perez CWS | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Randal Grichuk CWS | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Colson Montgomery CWS | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Kyle Teel CWS | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Zach Neto LAA | 07/05 | 1 | ✓ |
| Jo Adell LAA | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Josh Lowe LAA | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jose Siri LAA | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Vaughn Grissom LAA | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jorge Soler LAA | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
onBasePercentage
Exit Velo
AVG
sluggingPercentage
OPS