Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Taylor Ward

Baltimore Orioles · LF · Bats R

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.09
Edge
-7.1%
Trending splitsAway 13%(40)
Last 20
0%0/20 over 0.5
Window avg
0.00
Median
0.0
L5
0%
0/5
L10
0%
0/10
L20
0%
0/20
2026
0%
0/48
Avg0.13
StreakL51

Tonight's matchup: Colin Rea (RHP)

Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Four-seam FB
41.9%
93.7.305.50520.8%
Changeup
17.8%
87.7.276.3107.8%
Slider
11.1%
86.0.149.21327.7%
Sweeper
9.2%
83.0.088.08825.4%
Sinker
9.1%
92.4.365.4127.9%
Cutter
6.0%
87.0.240.36021.7%
Curveball
5.0%
79.8.000.00035.5%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Home Runslast 20 vs 0.5

home only · official box scores
0vs TB05/260vs TB05/270vs TOR05/280vs TOR05/290vs TOR05/300vs TOR05/310vs SEA06/080vs SEA06/090vs SEA06/100vs SEA06/110vs SD06/120vs SD06/130vs SD06/140vs WSH06/260vs WSH06/270vs WSH06/280vs CWS06/290vs CWS06/300vs CWS07/010vs CHC07/070.5

Tonight's odds — Home Runs

BookLineOverUnder
dabble_us_dfs0.5+545-526

Line movement — Home Runs

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs CHC Home Runs, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 1/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Samuel Basallo BAL07/070
Pete Alonso BAL07/070
Blaze Alexander BAL07/070
Gunnar Henderson BAL07/070
Dylan Beavers BAL07/070
Adley Rutschman BAL07/070
Jackson Holliday BAL07/070
Coby Mayo BAL07/070
Jordan Walker STL07/051
Masyn Winn STL07/050
Iván Herrera STL07/050
JJ Wetherholt STL07/050
Bryan Torres STL07/050
Lars Nootbaar STL07/050

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

sluggingPercentage
.615.452.211.857.365.314.407.231.216
Exit Velo
87.6494.3693.9693.8192.7789.8591.9688.1583.93
AVG
.423.290.158.536.231.171.333.231.216
onBasePercentage
.423.290.150.552.222.171.357.231.216
OPS
1.038.742.3501.379.574.486.750.462.432