Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.87
Edge
-5.2%Trending splitsAway 43%(21)
Last 20
33%3/9 over 1 · 11 push
Window avg
0.85
Median
1.0
L5
0%
0/3
L10
33%
2/6
L20
33%
3/9
2026
34%
12/35
Avg0.86
Streak—
Tonight's matchup: Colin Rea (RHP)
Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam FB | 41.9% | 93.7 | .305 | .505 | 20.8% |
| Changeup | 17.8% | 87.7 | .276 | .310 | 7.8% |
| Slider | 11.1% | 86.0 | .149 | .213 | 27.7% |
| Sweeper | 9.2% | 83.0 | .088 | .088 | 25.4% |
| Sinker | 9.1% | 92.4 | .365 | .412 | 7.9% |
| Cutter | 6.0% | 87.0 | .240 | .360 | 21.7% |
| Curveball | 5.0% | 79.8 | .000 | .000 | 35.5% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Taylor Ward clears 0.5 Hits, these hit too
Pete Alonso o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 68% · base 64% · n=62 · -227 dabble_us_dfs
Adley Rutschman o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 66% · base 61% · n=44 · -227 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Hits — last 20 vs 1
official box scoresTonight's odds — Hits
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 0.5 | -207 | +154 |
| BetOnline | 0.5 | -208 | +157 |
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | -196 | +197 |
Line movement — Hits
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
BetOnlineDraftKingsdabble_us_dfs
League vs CHC — Hits, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 10/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Adley Rutschman BAL | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Gunnar Henderson BAL | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Blaze Alexander BAL | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Pete Alonso BAL | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Samuel Basallo BAL | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Dylan Beavers BAL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Coby Mayo BAL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jackson Holliday BAL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Alec Burleson STL | 07/05 | 2 | ✓ |
| JJ Wetherholt STL | 07/05 | 2 | ✓ |
| Nathan Church STL | 07/05 | 1 | ✓ |
| Masyn Winn STL | 07/05 | 1 | ✓ |
| Jordan Walker STL | 07/05 | 1 | ✓ |
| Lars Nootbaar STL | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
sluggingPercentage
Exit Velo
AVG
onBasePercentage
OPS