Tonight's line
1.5
Model proj
1.69
Edge
+16.0%Last 20
40%8/20 over 1.5
Window avg
1.25
Median
1.0
L5
20%
1/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
40%
8/20
2026
40%
17/43
Avg1.19
StreakW1
Parlay pairs — when Nick Gonzales clears 1.5 Total Bases, these hit too
Brandon Lowe o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 74% · base 65% · n=35 · -224 DraftKings
Bryan Reynolds o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 73% · base 69% · n=113 · -214 DraftKings
Jared Triolo o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 70% · base 59% · n=84 · -130 DraftKings
Ryan O'Hearn o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 70% · base 65% · n=33 · -212 DraftKings
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Total Bases — last 20 vs 1.5
home only · official box scoresLine movement — Total Bases
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
DraftKingsBovada
League vs ATL — Total Bases, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 7/14 would clear tonight's 1.5
| Ryan O'Hearn PIT | 07/07 | 13 | ✓ |
| Brandon Lowe PIT | 07/07 | 3 | ✓ |
| Tyler Callihan PIT | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Jared Triolo PIT | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Jake Mangum PIT | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Esmerlyn Valdez PIT | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Henry Davis PIT | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Carson Benge NYM | 07/06 | 6 | ✓ |
| Juan Soto NYM | 07/06 | 4 | ✓ |
| Francisco Alvarez NYM | 07/06 | 2 | ✓ |
| Bo Bichette NYM | 07/06 | 2 | ✓ |
| Brett Baty NYM | 07/06 | 1 | ✗ |
| Jared Young NYM | 07/06 | 1 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
Exit Velo
sluggingPercentage
AVG
OPS
onBasePercentage