Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Nick Gonzales

Pittsburgh Pirates · 2B · Bats R

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.57
Edge
+4.9%
Last 20
20%4/20 over 1.5
Window avg
0.60
Median
0.0
L5
20%
1/5
L10
20%
2/10
L20
20%
4/20
2026
10%
9/86
Avg0.47
StreakL1

Tonight's matchup: Grant Holmes (RHP)

Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Slider
38.0%
85.3.256.43630.4%
Four-seam FB
31.7%
94.2.319.37521.3%
Sinker
10.3%
93.1.371.41618.4%
Curveball
8.1%
82.9.208.37532.6%
Cutter
6.5%
92.2.241.27622.1%
Changeup
5.5%
89.6.273.31832.1%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Nick Gonzales clears 0.5 Runs Scored, these hit too

Ryan O'Hearn o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 81% · base 65% · n=32 · -196 dabble_us_dfs
Tyler Callihan o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 75% · base 52% · n=12 · -115 dabble_us_dfs
Jared Triolo o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 68% · base 59% · n=76 · -119 dabble_us_dfs
Esmerlyn Valdez o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 67% · base 61% · n=9 · -153 DraftKings

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Runs Scoredlast 20 vs 1.5

official box scores
1@ OAK06/150@ OAK06/160@ OAK06/170@ COL06/190@ COL06/202@ COL06/210vs SEA06/232vs SEA06/240vs SEA06/250vs CIN06/260vs CIN06/272vs CIN06/280@ PHI06/290@ PHI06/301@ PHI07/011@ PHI07/020@ WSH07/031@ WSH07/042@ WSH07/050vs ATL07/071.5

Tonight's odds — Runs Scored

BookLineOverUnder
dabble_us_dfs0.5+161-159

Line movement — Runs Scored

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs ATL Runs Scored, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 11/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Ryan O'Hearn PIT07/073
Brandon Lowe PIT07/072
Esmerlyn Valdez PIT07/072
Jake Mangum PIT07/072
Bryan Reynolds PIT07/072
Tyler Callihan PIT07/071
Henry Davis PIT07/070
Jared Triolo PIT07/070
Carson Benge NYM07/062
Jared Young NYM07/061
Ronny Mauricio NYM07/061
Juan Soto NYM07/061
Bo Bichette NYM07/061
Francisco Alvarez NYM07/060

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

onBasePercentage
.423.087.238.526.465.394.143.318.281
AVG
.423.087.238.526.465.394.143.318.258
Exit Velo
78.1489.7091.1887.9392.1692.4484.4495.4483.86
sluggingPercentage
.538.174.238.684.698.485.214.409.258
OPS
.962.261.4761.2111.163.879.357.727.531