Tonight's line
1.5
Model proj
1.69
Edge
+16.0%Last 20
69%11/16 over 1 · 4 push
Window avg
1.85
Median
2.0
L5
100%
5/5
L10
86%
6/7
L20
69%
11/16
2026
57%
39/68
Avg1.49
StreakW6
Tonight's matchup: Grant Holmes (RHP)
Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slider | 38.0% | 85.3 | .256 | .436 | 30.4% |
| Four-seam FB | 31.7% | 94.2 | .319 | .375 | 21.3% |
| Sinker | 10.3% | 93.1 | .371 | .416 | 18.4% |
| Curveball | 8.1% | 82.9 | .208 | .375 | 32.6% |
| Cutter | 6.5% | 92.2 | .241 | .276 | 22.1% |
| Changeup | 5.5% | 89.6 | .273 | .318 | 32.1% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Nick Gonzales clears 1.5 Total Bases, these hit too
Brandon Lowe o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 74% · base 65% · n=35 · -204 dabble_us_dfs
Bryan Reynolds o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 73% · base 69% · n=113 · -214 DraftKings
Jared Triolo o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 70% · base 59% · n=84 · -119 dabble_us_dfs
Ryan O'Hearn o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 70% · base 65% · n=33 · -196 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Total Bases — last 20 vs 1
official box scoresTonight's odds — Total Bases
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 1.5 | +152 | -204 |
| dabble_us_dfs | 1.5 | +162 | -161 |
| Bovada | 1.5 | +150 | -200 |
Line movement — Total Bases
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
DraftKingsBovadadabble_us_dfs
League vs ATL — Total Bases, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 7/14 would clear tonight's 1.5
| Ryan O'Hearn PIT | 07/07 | 13 | ✓ |
| Brandon Lowe PIT | 07/07 | 3 | ✓ |
| Tyler Callihan PIT | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Jared Triolo PIT | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Jake Mangum PIT | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Esmerlyn Valdez PIT | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Bryan Reynolds PIT | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Henry Davis PIT | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Carson Benge NYM | 07/06 | 6 | ✓ |
| Juan Soto NYM | 07/06 | 4 | ✓ |
| Bo Bichette NYM | 07/06 | 2 | ✓ |
| Francisco Alvarez NYM | 07/06 | 2 | ✓ |
| Brett Baty NYM | 07/06 | 1 | ✗ |
| Jared Young NYM | 07/06 | 1 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
onBasePercentage
AVG
Exit Velo
sluggingPercentage
OPS